$5.5 NLHE MTT: 99 CO: Hero Opens 2.5x bbs, Villain 3BAI from BB?

26 players remaining ITM.

Hero has 27 BBs, Villain has 37 BBs.

NL Holdem $25000(BB)
HERO ($683708) [VPIP: 22.4% | PFR: 16.1% | AGG: 27.7% | Flop Agg: 35.8% | Turn Agg: 25.5% | River Agg: 15.1% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | 4-Bet: 27.7% | Hands: 107549]

BB ($947051) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 22.8% | Flop Agg: 26.6% | Turn Agg: 22.3% | River Agg: 16.7% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Fold to 3-Bet: 66.7% | 4-Bet: 9.1% | Hands: 842]

Dealt to Hero: 9♥ 9♦

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $66750, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Raises To $947051 (allin),

Running the equity calculator in DriveHUD, Villain has a 3Bet % of 18 from the BB giving Hero's 99 a 57.13% equity against Villain's perceived 3Betting range from the BB, making this essentially a coin flip situation?

RiverLord90 said:

26 players remaining ITM.

Hero has 27 BBs, Villain has 37 BBs.

NL Holdem $25000(BB)
HERO ($683708) [VPIP: 22.4% | PFR: 16.1% | AGG: 27.7% | Flop Agg: 35.8% | Turn Agg: 25.5% | River Agg: 15.1% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | 4-Bet: 27.7% | Hands: 107549]

BB ($947051) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 22.8% | Flop Agg: 26.6% | Turn Agg: 22.3% | River Agg: 16.7% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Fold to 3-Bet: 66.7% | 4-Bet: 9.1% | Hands: 842]

Dealt to Hero: 9♥ 9♦

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $66750, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Raises To $947051 (allin),

Spoiler

HERO Calls $616958 (allin)

BB shows: K♣ K♦

Flop ($1658259): 5♥ T♦ A♥

Turn ($1658259): 5♥ T♦ A♥ 2♦

River ($1658259): 5♥ T♦ A♥ 2♦ 8♠

BB wins: $1394916

Click to expand...

Pretty standard situation here - couple of things:

1. I would prefer min-clicking as our open size here. This allows us to play all our hands the same and stack-off/fold perfectly - opening 2.5x here does nothing 2x doesn't do.

2. We're not loving it, but this is almost certainly a call - our hand is simply too strong and our stack too small. If we had 50BB's, we could discuss a fold, but with ~25BB's - call and pray.

3. Also, the >35BB 3-bet shove is a bit on the fishy side, I'd be tempted to call based on that alone. However, even then, we're almost certainly racing. If he had a hand like AA, he still has room to raise short of all-in - he can 3-bet all the way up to 270-280K and still be able to fold to your 4-bet jam.

Yeah, well..."Nice wake-up and good game"! Also, the trouble with low limit Poker, he unknowingly/accidentally got max-value. This is the Scott Fishman technique of 2005-ish, and it used to work great, but now that there are vastly more competent villains, it's not nearly as good as it used to be.

So fold...haha, just kidding, this is still a call

ssbn743 said:

Pretty standard situation here - couple of things:

1. I would prefer min-clicking as our open size here. This allows us to play all our hands the same and stack-off/fold perfectly - opening 2.5x here does nothing 2x doesn't do.

Click to expand...

OK, we usually start min clicking when we get to (or closer to) the final table. We don't like to invite a lot of wide limpers with overcards (10, J, Q) so we usually do 2.5x. But we'll consider that in the future since we were pretty close there anyways.

ssbn743 said:

2. We're not loving it, but this is almost certainly a call - our hand is simply too strong and our stack too small. If we had 50BB's, we could discuss a fold, but with ~25BB's - call and pray.

Click to expand...

Agreed. We're in it to win it so we have to pick our spots to get in wisely and live with it.
A double up there would have put us in the top 5 giving us a much better chance at crusing to the FT and taking it down.

ssbn743 said:

3. Also, the >35BB 3-bet shove is a bit on the fishy side, I'd be tempted to call based on that alone. However, even then, we're almost certainly racing. If he had a hand like AA, he still has room to raise short of all-in - he can 3-bet all the way up to 270-280K and still be able to fold to your 4-bet jam.

Click to expand...

That's what I thought too, wasn't expecting to see a hand as strong as KK to 3bet jam with deep. We also did take down the previous 2 out of the 3 hands with 1010 and 88 respectively, one of which was on a check/raise all-in on a 596 rainbow flop (1010). So we figured villain was sick of our stuff and was jamming with a AK/AQ/KQ type hands at best.

ssbn743 said:

Yeah, well..."Nice wake-up and good game"! Also, the trouble with low limit Poker, he unknowingly/accidentally got max-value. This is the Scott Fishman technique of 2005-ish, and it used to work great, but now that there are vastly more competent villains, it's not nearly as good as it used to be.

So fold...haha, just kidding, this is still a call

Click to expand...

"lol donkaments" lmao yeah we're living with that. For the record I did check his sharkscope and he's definitely a winning player by a pretty nice margin on that site, so maybe there's a method behind the madness?

RiverLord90 said:

26 players remaining ITM.

Hero has 27 BBs, Villain has 37 BBs.

NL Holdem $25000(BB)
HERO ($683708) [VPIP: 22.4% | PFR: 16.1% | AGG: 27.7% | Flop Agg: 35.8% | Turn Agg: 25.5% | River Agg: 15.1% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | 4-Bet: 27.7% | Hands: 107549]

BB ($947051) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 22.8% | Flop Agg: 26.6% | Turn Agg: 22.3% | River Agg: 16.7% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Fold to 3-Bet: 66.7% | 4-Bet: 9.1% | Hands: 842]

Dealt to Hero: 9♥ 9♦

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $66750, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Raises To $947051 (allin),

Spoiler

HERO Calls $616958 (allin)

BB shows: K♣ K♦

Flop ($1658259): 5♥ T♦ A♥

Turn ($1658259): 5♥ T♦ A♥ 2♦

River ($1658259): 5♥ T♦ A♥ 2♦ 8♠

BB wins: $1394916

Click to expand...

Thank you for posting

I have not seen spoiler yet

So is this V does not have to shove. So why are they?

Do you have any data with regards to a pattern this shove represents?

Have you seen this V make bets to protect hands like JJ-AA from suck outs?

Would V be shoving smaller pairs?

What do you think V is expecting you to do?

Should V be expecting you to call when they have AA?

Are there weaker players on table?

Is the structure good for you?
Can you find a better spot or 2?

Hope this helps

eetenor said:

Thank you for posting

I have not seen spoiler yet

So is this V does not have to shove. So why are they?

Do you have any data with regards to a pattern this shove represents?

Have you seen this V make bets to protect hands like JJ-AA from suck outs?

Would V be shoving smaller pairs?

What do you think V is expecting you to do?

Should V be expecting you to call when they have AA?

Are there weaker players on table?

Is the structure good for you?
Can you find a better spot or 2?

Hope this helps

Click to expand...

It does, thank you.

Ran this hand through ICMIZER 3 and got these results. 1.56% push is good right? Just downloaded the trial today, so not entirely sure what everything means yet. Anyone think it's worth buying the full license?