$5.25 NLHE STT: DON position bluff okay?

trent32la said:

Preflop - Why are we open raising here 6-handed ante-less with 73o? Especially in a DoN, there is zero value to opening 73o here this deep pre-ante, just fold.

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mbrenneman0 said:

its math. the percentage of times that neither of them have a hand to justify calling pre combined with the percentage of times they fold to a cbet if one of them does call makes it +cEV

the play here is not about the equity in my hand, but its about the likelihood that the other player doesnt have a hand good enough to call. how often is he really checking back the river here with top pair or better and how often is he folding to a river bet if he has 2nd or 3rd pair? I think most players are folding to a river bet almost 50% of the time here and only really calling with 1010+ Kx, and maybe sometimes 106... some random better hands in there sometimes but not likely enough to really consider based on preflop and flop. i think he's folding a lot of 77-99, Ax, QJ

i hope that makes sense?

also, this is bovada/ignition so there is no player history, its anonymous tables.

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trent32la said:

This is a SNG and a DoN as well. In a tournament like this, chips have a diminishing value as you gain them. Remember, we are playing to survive until 3 players left, not win.

You're risking 60 chips to win 90 chips here, therefore both of your opponents must fold >66% of the time for you to breakeven by raising 72o here. The stack depth is going to see you get flatted by a much wider range of hands in this spot and cbets will be much less effective due to a very high SPR.

Post-ante, in a SNG that doesn't have a flat payout structure, I like this raise a lot more since we can minraise and our opponents need to fold a lower % of the time for this to be a +EV raise. In a DoN pre-ante it's pretty much worthless to open atc here.

As for the river bluff, what are you trying to represent here? You checked the turn which really caps your range and it's hard to see you betting 77-QQ on this river since you aren't getting paid off by worse very often and your opponent's flop call range will be much weighted towards Kx. There's no real value to your opponent betting K2-K9 or 77-99 on this river since you likely have air here and those hands act as very good bluff catchers.

Like I said earlier, if you're going to make an attempt to bluff this river, a 1/2 pot bet isn't going to be very effective at all. Your line looks like air, the river blanked, and people love to herocall in these spots.

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The button is the strongest position at the table. If you get into the pot, you will have position on the flop, turn, and river on every other player. This is a huge advantage, so your cards are of minor importance in your decision to enter a pot. In fact, the only time you will fold your hand preflop is when there is a raise greater than a standard raise of three to four times the size of the big blind. [...] All basic position strategy playsassume that you have sufficient chips to keep from jeopardizing your survival as a result of the play [...] The position basic strategy also indicates that you should raise from the button if you are the first player in the pot. This will often be viewed as an attempt to steal the blinds - which it is.
[...]
Here are the two secret strategies for making money after the flop: 1. He checks, you bet 2. He bets, you fold. Thats it.

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mbrenneman0 said:

Idk, like what hands is he folding here to a psb that he doesn't fold to half pot on?

Most of his entire range in this spot I would think. You might even get him to folding a weak king in this spot by making a large bet. Large bets nowadays are generally viewed as very strong and you are attacking a capped range by applying max pressure.
Maybe we get him to fold a few more hands to gain 10% FE but for an extra 17% on the price.

But what hands does he really have that check turn and check river?

K2-K9, 33-55, 77-TT and possibly some weird ace high type hands. It's pretty clear that you have nothing most of the time when you take this line and you rep zero. The river is the worst card in the deck you could have bluffed on.
He might show up with a king 10% - 20% of the time, but most of the time he's got ace high or worse.

Wrong, why would he bet this river with a small/mid pair ever? It's certainly in his flop call range and he's not going to get called by worse when betting since your range is so weak. I don't think you ever get him to fold anything worse than ace high here which is the smallest part of his range.You also need to take into account that you bet a very very dry flop and he needs to have a made hand or a mid/high ace to call your bet. When you get called on it and the runout completely blanks, it's time to give up the pot. You only have 6.75bb invested and this is a DoN. I'll say it again as well, his small/mid pairs act as great bluffcatchers in this spot and players at this level aren't good enough to fold these types of hands when you take this line.


Put yourself in villains shoes, if you have ace high, are you calling facing this action?

Never, however I would consider myself better than the average person in a $5.25 DoN on Bovada. My flopcall range would be something like A8-AJ, 22-99, and K2s-KQs, K6o-KQo. On the river it's pretty hard for me to bet with most of those hands knowing only better is calling and taking a check/call line allows me to bluffcatch while pot controlling OOP.

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trent32la said:

One thing you have not taken into account at all is what your range is when you bet this river. In the moment if I am the BB, I do not think you are opening atc on the button, K6s+, K9o+ would be the range I would give you. Certainly you are barreling this turn with those hands? So you pretty much have 99-QQ making an extremely thin value bet or air.

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