$4 NLHE MTT Turbo: $ NLHE MTT: Turbo: 15bb on the button with A7o.

A

awesome

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/19/0.7

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/19/0.7

SB is running a 24/19 with a 6% 3b and 10bb.

BB is running a 16/13 with a 5% 3b and 46bb.

Do you open, rip, or fold here?

Game started at: 2017/10/8 14:0:49
Game ID: 1026205930 125/250 $200 GTD Turbo, Table 1 (Hold'em)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 2: HERO (3858).
Seat 3: VILLAIN1 (11522).
Seat 4: VILLAIN2 (2615).
Seat 5: lawyer77 (4860).
Seat 6: Papier (4365).
Seat 7: DreadedMange (13899).
Seat 8: akuloEdd (7680).
Seat 9: Imwin22 (2790).
Player VILLAIN1 ante (25)
Player VILLAIN2 ante (25)
Player lawyer77 ante (25)
Player Papier ante (25)
Player DreadedMange ante (25)
Player akuloEdd ante (25)
Player Imwin22 ante (25)
Player HERO ante (25)
Player VILLAIN1 has small blind (125)
Player VILLAIN2 has big blind (250)
Player HERO received card: <font color='red'>7<font face="arial">♦</font></font>
Player HERO received card: <font color='black'>A♣</font>
 
A

AviCKter

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All-in. Unexploitable.

You cannot raise/call-raise/fold A7o and folding is out of question. As long as nobody has opened, I put it all in the middle and hope for the best.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Villain stats indicate they are not pre-flop calling stations, and they do not 3-bet frequently.

If they have weak hands they are likely to fold to a 2.5BB bet. There is no point in risking 15BB where 2.5BB will usually do the job.

If you get a call or 3-Bet you are probably behind.
 
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AviCKter

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Villain stats indicate they are not pre-flop calling stations, and they do not 3-bet frequently.

If they have weak hands they are likely to fold to a 2.5BB bet. There is no point in risking 15BB where 2.5BB will usually do the job.

If you get a call or 3-Bet you are probably behind.

A7o doesn't flop that good, when the BB would/should defend wide (its a turbo). Won't have much room to do anything.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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A7o doesn't flop that good, when the BB would/should defend wide (its a turbo). Won't have much room to do anything.

Valid point. BB should defend wide, especially with that stack. But he is 16/13/5, so he may not defend as wide as he should.

If making the smaller raise, Hero needs to play passively and fold to all future aggression unless he makes two pair or better. Otherwise he is better off going all in.

A 2.5BB bet and a 15BB bet both have the same outcome if the blinds fold.

If the blinds call or raise a 2.5 BB bet:
There is a small chance the hero wins post-flop.
Hero needs to fold to 3-bets. There is some chance the SB will see this as a re-steal opportunity.
Likely outcome is a 12.5BB stack. Zero chance of elimination.

If the blinds call a 15BB bet:
If we give a range of [55+,AT+, KQ] to a call by one of the villains here, hero's equity is only 31%. Pot would be ~31.5 BB, so hero's equity would be ~10BB.
There is an opportunity cost. If hero loses, he is eliminated.

It all comes down to how much more likely the blinds are to fold to the 15BB bet, compared to the 2.5BB bet. I find this a difficult judgement to make, and I'd say neither play is terrible.

Edit: We should note that if we are near the bubble or in the money, other considerations exist.
 
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trent32la

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Nh, snap shove so fast sometimes you misclick and fold.

Alex - If you are implying that we should open 2.5bb here and fold to any further aggression without 2pr+ are you also opening 93s here?

These spots are very simple. Make a standard open (2-2.3x) with hands you want to r/c a shove with or hands that play decently postflop at shallower stack depths but aren’t +cEV to shove.

Open shove all hands that are +cEV to shove, but not good enough to r/c with.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Alex - If you are implying that we should open 2.5bb here and fold to any further aggression without 2pr+ are you also opening 93s here?

Yes, fully aware that it's an "any two cards" steal. A7o is only slightly better than 93 in this spot if not shoving.

How tight would the blinds need to be for you to prefer an any two cards steal to a shove with a hand that will have little equity if called?

Against the range I suggested [55+, AT+, KQ] as likely for a call by one of the blinds, A7o has 31% equity and 93s has 30% equity. Are you suggesting shoving with 93s?
 
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trent32la

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Yes, fully aware that it's an "any two cards" steal. A7o is only slightly better than 93 in this spot if not shoving.

How tight would the blinds need to be for you to prefer an any two cards steal to a shove with a hand that will have little equity if called?

Against the range I suggested [55+, AT+, KQ] as likely for a call by one of the blinds, A7o has 31% equity and 93s has 30% equity. Are you suggesting shoving with 93s?
The blinds would need to be extremely tight (i.e. not shoving hands like 66, KQ, AT here) for me to consider r/f A7o here instead of shoving knowing it is +cEV. In today's game, people are rejamming a lot wider than 55+ AT+ KQ+ vs a button open as well which makes jamming A7o a more viable option than r/f.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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The blinds would need to be extremely tight (i.e. not shoving hands like 66, KQ, AT here) for me to consider r/f A7o here instead of shoving knowing it is +cEV. In today's game, people are rejamming a lot wider than 55+ AT+ KQ+ vs a button open as well which makes jamming A7o a more viable option than r/f.

Yes, as noted above the SB is down to 10BB and may see a 2.5BB raise from the button, and a tight BB, as an opportunity to re-steal. I'd assign him a wider range than 55+ AT+ KQ+ if he did. So that's an argument for the button to go all in.

I think a 93s shove is reasonable, and +cEV also, BTW. But I lean toward the smaller steal for the reasons indicated above - it will often succeed, and it carries no risk of elimination from the tourney. We may need to agree to disagree on this one.
 
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Alucard

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Yes, as noted above the SB is down to 10BB and may see a 2.5BB raise from the button, and a tight BB, as an opportunity to re-steal. I'd assign him a wider range than 55+ AT+ KQ+ if he did. So that's an argument for the button to go all in.

I think a 93s shove is reasonable, and +cEV also, BTW. But I lean toward the smaller steal for the reasons indicated above - it will often succeed, and it carries no risk of elimination from the tourney. We may need to agree to disagree on this one.

Easy shove here. Study snapshove charts. You should be willing to shove a very wide range when you are this short
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Easy shove here. Study snapshove charts. You should be willing to shove a very wide range when you are this short

Shove charts generally tell you when shoves will be profitable. No one disputes that a shove will be profitable.
 
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awesome

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I went for the raise and both players are all in....

Do you call off here?

Player HERO raises (663)
Player VILLAIN1 allin (11372)
Player VILLAIN2 allin (2340)
 
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AlexTheOwl

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I went for the raise and both players are all in....

Do you call off here?

Player HERO raises (663)
Player VILLAIN1 allin (11372)
Player VILLAIN2 allin (2340)

No. The whole point of not shoving was to risk a smaller amount, in case the villains have strong hands. Now they are acting like they have strong hands.
 
liuouhgkres

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if you raise then you fold to reraise. But as mentioned earlier you should raise fold A7o only and only when there are super nits on blinds, because in that case small raise of 2-2.5 bb will achieve same fold equity, but you risk way less.
 
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The blinds would need to be extremely tight (i.e. not shoving hands like 66, KQ, AT here) for me to consider r/f A7o here instead of shoving knowing it is +cEV. In today's game, people are rejamming a lot wider than 55+ AT+ KQ+ vs a button open as well which makes jamming A7o a more viable option than r/f.

Yes, people are ultra aggressive against button raises now. I need to reconsider my call off ranges in this spot. results oriented of course but preflop need to be in there.

Player HERO folds
Uncalled bet (8907) returned to VILLAIN1
*** FLOP ***: [2s 7s 7c]
*** TURN ***: [2s 7s 7c] [6h]
*** RIVER ***: [2s 7s 7c 6h] [10h]
------ Summary ------
Pot: 6043
Board: [2s 7s 7c 6h 10h]
Player HERO does not show cards.Bets: 688. Collects: 0. Loses: 688.
Player VILLAIN1 shows: Two pairs. 7s and 5s [5d 5h]. Bets: 2615. Collects: 0. Loses: 2615.
*Player VILLAIN2 shows: Two pairs. 10s and 7s [10s Kd]. Bets: 2615. Collects: 6043. Wins: 3428.
Player lawyer77 does not show cards.Bets: 25. Collects: 0. Loses: 25.
Player Papier does not show cards.Bets: 25. Collects: 0. Loses: 25.
Player DreadedMange does not show cards.Bets: 25. Collects: 0. Loses: 25.
Player akuloEdd does not show cards.Bets: 25. Collects: 0. Loses: 25.
Player Imwin22 does not show cards.Bets: 25. Collects: 0. Loses: 25.
Game ended at: 2017/10/8 14:1:56

bonus points for trent.
 
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