$4 NLHE MTT: Turbo FT: BB v SB

I'm effectively in last place after posting my bb.

Do you call in this spot w J9s for 7bb?

Villain's all in freq is 13%. I would suspect it is far larger in this situation.

Game started at: 2017/7/30 15:38:40
Game ID: 970625874 2250/4500 $200 GTD Turbo, Table 2 (Hold'em)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: JackyKhan (72982).
Seat 2: Robieeee (66568).
Seat 3: SD_Pokerstar38 (27272).
Seat 4: priiggggee (30562).
Seat 5: yogip (90608).
Seat 7: Villain (53686).
Seat 8: HERO (30992).
Seat 9: Nostromo_Jacob (162330).
Player Villain ante (450)
Player HERO ante (450)
Player Nostromo_Jacob ante (450)
Player JackyKhan ante (450)
Player Robieeee ante (450)
Player SD_Pokerstar38 ante (450)
Player priiggggee ante (450)
Player yogip ante (450)
Player Villain has small blind (2250)
Player HERO has big blind (4500)
Player HERO received card: [9s]
Player HERO received card: [Js]
Player Nostromo_Jacob folds
Player JackyKhan folds
Player Robieeee folds
Player SD_Pokerstar38 folds
Player priiggggee folds
Player yogip folds
Player Villain allin (50986)

Villain's SB RFI%, location (if he's non-US then he's very likely a reg), and sharkscope stats are all relevant here. Readless I'm letting go, because of ICM implications and all stacks are pretty close. If V is good, then I'm calling it off, however J9s will be the bottom of my calling range here.

It depends on the villains shove range here and the payout jump, I have already folded on this spot as called, it really depends on these 2 factors, if he is shoving too loose you have pretty good chances of be winning, even if he got you beaten, but if the payout jump is too big, you have to fold and wait for a better spot and the another 2 short stacked to leave

Its a close spot. I think some people would know better in these situations. I would probably call with you getting so short. With around 10bbs I would fold. Just my opinion though.

I called but yes it is the bottom of my range in this spot.

Player HERO allin (26042)
Uncalled bet (22694) returned to Villain
*** FLOP ***: [Jd 8h Kh]
*** TURN ***: [Jd 8h Kh] [3h]
*** RIVER ***: [Jd 8h Kh 3h] [10h]
------ Summary ------
Pot: 64684
Board: [Jd 8h Kh 3h 10h]
Player JackyKhan does not show cards.Bets: 450. Collects: 0. Loses: 450.
Player Robieeee does not show cards.Bets: 450. Collects: 0. Loses: 450.
Player SD_Pokerstar38 does not show cards.Bets: 450. Collects: 0. Loses: 450.
Player priiggggee does not show cards.Bets: 450. Collects: 0. Loses: 450.
Player yogip does not show cards.Bets: 450. Collects: 0. Loses: 450.
*Player Villain shows: One pair of Ks [Ks Qd]. Bets: 30992. Collects: 64684. Wins: 33692.
Player HERO shows: One pair of Js [9s Js]. Bets: 30992. Collects: 0. Loses: 30992.
Player Nostromo_Jacob does not show cards.Bets: 450. Collects: 0. Loses: 450.
Game ended at: 2017/7/30 15:39:15

Payouts:
1: $118
2: 79
3: 60
4: 41
5: 30
6: 23
7: 18
8: 15
9: 13

I messed around with ICMizer which I am still figuring out but I think it says I should be calling with 60% of my range here but this is assuming V is shoving 77% of his.

So, the ICMizer range is wide on both counts.

If anyone has ant other input with the payouts and what to do here it would be appreciated.

Given the parabolic payouts, I think taking this spot is OKish.

Please use hand converter, this is hard to understand what is what.

I just ran it through a calculator and yes J9s for 7BB is a shove. It would actually be an acceptable shove from UTG.

Lets do some math

EV Fold = -4950 chips (blind plus ante)

EV call = (pot if you win)x(probability you win) - (30992)x(probability you loose)

Is a spot like this and with this showdown, the worst you can expect here (I guess) is like 2:1 underdog, it gives you, lets say, 33%. So in the worst cenario, you still got 1/3 chance to win. Putting into the formula:

EV call (worst cenario range) = (64684)x(0,33) - (30992)x(0,66)
EV call (worst cenario range) = 21345,72 - 20454,72
EV call (worst cenario range) = 891 chips

Without considering payout, your call EV in the worst cenario still better than your EV from folding.

Now lets say that you fold in this spot and the two other short stacks try to double up, but just leave the torney and then unfortunally you leave in the sequence.

You would improve your payout in 6 dolars at best in this cenario. Considering your chances of doubling up and being with about 15 BBs like the other opponents, what are the chances you improve your payouy and even win the torney? The chip leader has just about 30BBs, its just very close from the rest.

I dont know the exact calculation for that, but I guess that in spots like these, you got to take the risk to win the torney, specially with 7 BBs