$4.40 NLHE MTT Turbo: KK on final table bubble. Can we fold?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/23/3.3

It's a 6-Max Turbo. 8 players remaining. Currently 4 players in the table. Hero is 5th. Current payout is $32. 1st in ~$300. Villain seems to be on the LAG side with 32/23/3.2/3BET 10.6 (129 hands). I looked him up on Sharkscope, it says "player not found or opted out". Not sure what to make of that.


1. Was the 3 Bet too small? (Please keep in mind we are 4 handed) KK is (obviously) a premium holding at the top of my 3bet range and I don't want him to fold his weak Broadways. Given his very wide opening range, I felt I shouldn't raise too big to push him out.

Without focusing on this hand particularly, in general against a similar LAG villain, in a similar situation, should we be making a larger 3 Bet with JJ+?


2. Once he raises my half pot bet on the flop, is there ANY way we can fold?


I mean his range must have a lot of TP + overpairs ( 10s, JJ) + any draws (we crush this entire range). Also he has sets and two pairs. And I think he can also have (although less likely) some complete air.


Is a shove with KK in this spot +EV against that range , while considering ICM?




Poker Stars, $3.92 Buy-in (1,400/2,800 blinds, 350 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.


SB: 87,647 (31.3 bb)
Hero (BB): 134,502 (48 bb)
CO: 256,305 (91.5 bb)
BTN: 91,208 (32.6 bb)


Preflop: Hero is BB with K

K

CO raises to 7,112, 2 folds, Hero raises to 14,000, CO calls 6,888


Flop: (30,800) 8

9

4

(2 players)
Hero bets 14,000, CO raises to 57,516, Hero raises to 120,152 and is all-in, CO calls 62,636


Turn: (271,104) 8

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (271,104) 8

(2 players, 1 is all-in)


Results: 271,104 pot
Final Board: 8

9

4

8

8

I do not think I could have folded, but I am still learning. For me, you played it right.

I think that you had some good game options:

1) You could make the all-in pre-flop.
2) you could make a call pre-flop, without making a 3-bet, and further on the circumstances.

But of course, getting to the villain in the set with a flop is always not pleasant.

1. I think as a chip leader, he would have called with speculative hands even if your 3bet size is larger as he has got the position. Normally I would bet 3.0-3.5x of last bet to apply more pressure but min raise could do to induce 4bet bluff if he has a high 4bet frequency.

2. Yes agree he could have draws like JT/67 and also complete air to put pressure on you by raising 4x. TT+ I guess he would have 4bet preflop so I would rule it out.

Also if he has two pairs or better, I think he would more likely to call the flop bet and raise on turn/river to do rope-a-dope but understood he could put you on JT as well so not slow-play here.

One thing I am not certain whether you can put him on LAG with 32/23/10.6 on 6max. Overall very tough spot for me as well but 4x raise looks more like bluff so I would shove as well.

Yea I know 32/23/10.6 doesn't exactly scream LAG but that he has been playing a pretty wide range and maybe he wasn't exactly very aggro ALL the time but definitely on the aggro side in most of the hands, specially the hands I was involved with him.

Tough spot - I don’t there is much I would have done differently except for the preflop 3bet size - I would have made us 3 - 3.5 x and still expect to get called by worse.I cant decide if villains line is good or bad. His raise is very deceptive as it doesn’t look like value - it folds out your bluffs and only really targets the big pairs you have in this spot and unfortunately you have a big pair.

Yea the 3Bet was too small (saying in general, not just for this particular spot).
You are right that even after say 3.5X, this deep, he was calling 77+, A10+, KQ/KJs+, at least, as he has position.
I think he is an experienced player, maybe a losing player, but experienced, so he correctly ranged my small 3Bet as JJ+ and maybe made the correct play by raising there on the flop.

Although it is debateable as to why raise there with the effective nuts. I mean if I have over pairs, I am barreling turn anyways and he can shove then. If I am bluffing with say AK, he can catch those.

So yea, worked out for him that I actually had one of those few hands which would pay him off with the line he took but in general his line was probably -EV.

Andrew Popov said:

I think that you had some good game options:

1) You could make the all-in pre-flop.
2) you could make a call pre-flop, without making a 3-bet, and further on the circumstances.

But of course, getting to the villain in the set with a flop is always not pleasant.

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1. It was 48 BB effective. He raised 2.8X. we are 4 handed. I don't think a 3bet shove of 44.2 BB in this case would be optimum.

2. That's something I didn't think about. Interesting point. 4 way. Flat KK from BB(which would look like a standard defense). Could possibly pay off big dividends sometimes.

I believe you could have raised more pre flop. But after all your play seems right to me. I would probably just call his first 4x raise but end result would be the same.

NH excellent plan. This flop find to be favorable for our KK if he hit the set in fop. complicated.

For the player to have hidden the statistics means that he is probably a profitable player. I think his preflop raise was very low, I would have increased more, but it was a complicated hand, it would be difficult for anyone to flee from this situation, the flop helped him a lot.

For the player to have hidden the statistics means that he is probably a profitable player.

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That's an interesting point. Lately, I have seen quite a few sharkscope results return that. Now it seems to me, all those who have "opted out" played decent to very good at the tables (one exception out of probably 7/8).


So yea, you are most likely right about that.

It may be that Im not good enough to fold here. Or it just seems like 8s full of kings may really be the winner. If you lost that hand, it would've panned out the same way for the majority of us. A risky spot, but your kings look good here.

Definitely 3-bet bigger. I can see a case for smaller 3-bet against such a laggy player with AA, but even then I’m only doing it maybe 20% of the time. I say 3Bet to about 30k.
Hard to say what line to take on this flop, as most lines will be profitable here with two kings. I guess it just depends on how you want to balance your range.

3B sizing is awful, you are giving your opponent incredible odds to flat with his entire range IP. 3B sizing should be minimum 3x the raise size OOP and given population tendencies in today's game my standard 3B size OOP would be 3.5x the raise size 30bb+ deep.

Flop you have to stack off.

trent32la said:

3B sizing is awful, you are giving your opponent incredible odds to flat with his entire range IP. 3B sizing should be minimum 3x the raise size OOP and given population tendencies in today's game my standard 3B size OOP would be 3.5x the raise size 30bb+ deep.

Flop you have to stack off.

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Yea it's definitely a leak in my game. Not talking about this particular hand but was going through similar situations in HM2, my 3 bet sizing with premiums is much smaller compared to my 3bets with medium strength/AX hands (with those I seem to be always 3x-ing it). So balance is way off and also my premiums often run into deep trouble (again, in general, not just this hand) . So yea, working on fixing that leak. Appreciate the opinion & advise.