re: Poker & $4.40 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Difficult turn decision with top pair
With no reads on the villain, gets tougher, but MP1's bet sizing (min-bets) are often weak value or weak/medium semi-bluffs.
So, weak value:
Weak Ks (K9, K8, K7, K6)
Broadway Ts (JT, QT, AT), T9
22, 44-99 and JJ/QQ
A3 no hearts
Relevant weak bluffs:
Ax with backdoor flush
QJ no hearts/backdoor hearts
J9 no hearts/backdoor hearts
As you can see, this is a reasonable range for his flop bet.
Run through an equity calculator and your KdQd holds 59% equity against this range. I think you should be raising for value here. Thing is, the pot had like 12k, your raise to 6175 gives MP1 a great 1-3.75 odds to call, you're basically giving him over 13% free equity. Remember this is microstakes, they are calling wide.
In your position, I'd raise to at least 10k at this spot, and still, by raising to 10k you're laying him 1-2.5 odds which gives his range around 1% free equity, plus commits you to the pot (>1 SPR). So, by far, the best play here is a shove on the flop. For pure value, knowing at these stakes villains will chase tons of draws when they cover you, or call loose with a weaker K than yours.
Once in a while villain will chase draws and you will double up. Once in a while they'll showdown a monster and laugh on your face.
If you want to go the safe route, and you are looking to minimize variance, you should play this flop passively and call the flop, and call every turn. This way you protect your chips but miss value. You decided to go for value raising this flop, than you should definitely be shoving and charging drawing hands.
That said, this turn is a tricky spot. I assume we're up against this range on the turn
[Q,J,9,8,7,6,5,4,2,h]A, J9, QJ, [9,8,7,6]K, JJ, QQ 44.96%
(AhXh, J9 no hearts, QJ no hearts, weak kings, and maybe JJ and QQ)
Take out the weak kings and JJ and QQ:
[Q,J,9,8,7,6,5,4,2,h]A, J9, QJ 48.83%
Still a shove. Never checking that turn. The only three hands in his range that improve with the 9 of spades are, Ah9h, K9, QJ, J9, T9 and 99, and two of them PROBABLY fold to your flop raise.
Lead all in the turn. And cry when he shows down his QJ.