$4.40 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Difficult turn decision with top pair

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ninoverm

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Absolutely lost with what I should do on this hand. Feel like I should pot commit myself on the flop, so that sizing was probably too small. But as played, should I move on or fold the turn? Would leave me 22 blinds with about double the number of paid spots left.

poker stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t500/t1000 Blinds + t100 - 8 players -

UTG+1: t37620 M = 16.36
MP1: t50096 M = 21.78
MP2: t32609 M = 14.18
CO: t5186 M = 2.25
BTN: t3799 M = 1.65
SB: t22790 M = 9.91
Hero (BB): t32191 M = 14.00
UTG: t36880 M = 16.03

Pre Flop: (t2300) Hero is BB with K :diamond: Q :diamond:
2 folds, MP1 raises to t3000, 2 folds, BTN calls t3000, 1 fold, Hero calls t2000

Flop: (t10300) T :heart: K :heart: 3 :spade: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t1000, BTN calls t699 all in, Hero raises to t6175, MP1 calls t5175

Turn: (t23349) 9 :spade: (3 players - 1 is all in)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t10000
 
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PHX

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Can't get away with stack size on that flop.
 
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16clumsyandshy

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min bet, call on flop feels very weak to me or very strong like a set (people are weird), but the much larger bet on the turn seems very strong. If villain had hearts on flop then they probably bet more than the min, so betting strong now doesn't make sense... When you raise flop I don't think you can fold to just a 9 on the turn. Here are a few options to be considered:
-bet fold turn
-raise flop shove turn.
-shove flop
-check shove turn (again this seems bad based on that bet size)
 
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ninoverm

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Thanks for the input guys. I eventually went for the shove, I was pricing myself in anyway. Shove on the turn and I still have some equity to hit the gut shot. He had QsJs. Definitely didn't raise enough on the flop.

-shove flop

Seeing this as the best option. Still having my concerns over the turn spot as played though. Can't come up with any hands he's betting 10K with on the turn that I'm beating, with the awkward side pot going on as well.
 
mcgregor_415

mcgregor_415

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I think you play well the hand. It is interesting to see what kind of image the MP1 had. It's pretty interesting the way he played in such early position. IMO you played well. Maybe I would safe raise on the turn for 3k and then with a big reraise would fold. The way he plays I would put him mostly on a flush draw on the flop.
 
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bbiase

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With no reads on the villain, gets tougher, but MP1's bet sizing (min-bets) are often weak value or weak/medium semi-bluffs.

So, weak value:
Weak Ks (K9, K8, K7, K6)
Broadway Ts (JT, QT, AT), T9
22, 44-99 and JJ/QQ
A3 no hearts

Relevant weak bluffs:
Ax with backdoor flush

Weak/Medium semi/bluffs:
Axh
QJ no hearts/backdoor hearts
J9 no hearts/backdoor hearts

As you can see, this is a reasonable range for his flop bet.

Run through an equity calculator and your KdQd holds 59% equity against this range. I think you should be raising for value here. Thing is, the pot had like 12k, your raise to 6175 gives MP1 a great 1-3.75 odds to call, you're basically giving him over 13% free equity. Remember this is microstakes, they are calling wide.

In your position, I'd raise to at least 10k at this spot, and still, by raising to 10k you're laying him 1-2.5 odds which gives his range around 1% free equity, plus commits you to the pot (>1 SPR). So, by far, the best play here is a shove on the flop. For pure value, knowing at these stakes villains will chase tons of draws when they cover you, or call loose with a weaker K than yours.

Once in a while villain will chase draws and you will double up. Once in a while they'll showdown a monster and laugh on your face.

If you want to go the safe route, and you are looking to minimize variance, you should play this flop passively and call the flop, and call every turn. This way you protect your chips but miss value. You decided to go for value raising this flop, than you should definitely be shoving and charging drawing hands.

That said, this turn is a tricky spot. I assume we're up against this range on the turn

KdQd 55.04%
[Q,J,9,8,7,6,5,4,2,h]A, J9, QJ, [9,8,7,6]K, JJ, QQ 44.96%
(AhXh, J9 no hearts, QJ no hearts, weak kings, and maybe JJ and QQ)

Take out the weak kings and JJ and QQ:

KdQd 51.17%
[Q,J,9,8,7,6,5,4,2,h]A, J9, QJ 48.83%

Still a shove. Never checking that turn. The only three hands in his range that improve with the 9 of spades are, Ah9h, K9, QJ, J9, T9 and 99, and two of them PROBABLY fold to your flop raise.

Lead all in the turn. And cry when he shows down his QJ.
 
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ninoverm

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Thanks for the input man. Agree on every single word you formulated. Will definitely learn from this for the future.
 
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