$4.4 NLHE MTT: Tough spot on the flop...

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razzor94

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poker stars, $4 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 12 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 5,536 (55.4 bb)
BB: 6,589 (65.9 bb)
UTG+1: 4,567 (45.7 bb)
UTG+2: 3,160 (31.6 bb)
MP1: 2,484 (24.8 bb)
Hero (MP2): 5,099 (51 bb)
MP3: 2,679 (26.8 bb)
CO: 1,043 (10.4 bb)
BTN: 7,415 (74.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A
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Q
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UTG+1 raises to 230, 2 folds, Hero calls 230, MP3 folds, CO calls 230, 3 folds

Flop: (948) 9
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T
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J
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(3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets 801 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls 801, Hero calls 801

Turn: (3,351) 2
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(3 players, 1 is all-in)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: (3,351) 8
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(3 players, 1 is all-in)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 700, UTG+1 calls 700

Results: 4,751 pot
Final Board: 9
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T
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J
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2
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8
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Facing a what is surely a fish shove i am certainly calling if UTG folds but when he calls can calling be the right play ?
I just ran it trough Poker Stove and against UTG open-check-calling range(2 pair,KJ,AJ,AQ,AK,QJ) and the fish shoving range i have about 27% equtiy getting 3.2 to 1 i need 24%.
Now i realize that when i call i am never ahead so i am down just to my outs.
Can i call and draw here for this price ?
 
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gnarus

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I like the call there. Small stack shove really could have about anything. You have enough chips that you wouldn't be crippled if it didn't hit. Since it's an all-in you are getting 2 cards odds to hit your straight- ace or queen could also be outs.

To isolate the flop decision next time you might consider not posting the turn and river cards-
 
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razzor94

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gnarus said:
I like the call there. Small stack shove really could have about anything. You have enough chips that you wouldn't be crippled if it didn't hit. Since it's an all-in you are getting 2 cards odds to hit your straight- ace or queen could also be outs.

To isolate the flop decision next time you might consider not posting the turn and river cards-
Click to expand...

I am not worried about the short stack. UTG calling his shove is what worries me. Against his calling range here i am never ahead so i am relying only on my outs.
That said a Q or an A might not be outs and maybe not even an 8 depending on what he has.
 
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Roockie4Life

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I think you made a mistake checking on the flop. You say you are not worried about the shorty, but by checking the flop I feel like you loose alot of pressure. Here is why (in my opinion)
UTG+1 opens which gives him a range of 77+, AQ+, AJs, KJs+, KQ. I don't think he has QJ, JT or T9 too often unless he has been opening pretty wide. (looking at the stack sizes we are early in the MTT). Your range is a little wider since you just called from MP2. This gives you a range of 22+ (up untill TT, JJ+ i think you 3-bet most of the time), AQ, AJ, A8s+, KJ+, QJ and alot of suited connectors: 87+ (depening on how wide your calling range is).
The shorty however, is a bad player who is scared to lose his tourney, so he just calls preflop with a connector or weak ace I think. Not too much to worry about.

UTG+1 checks the flop which doesn't rly change much on his range. He could be slowplaying any of his good hands. But I think he would c-bet his weaker pocket pairs like 77 or 88.
When we look at the UTG+1 and Hero, it is clear to me that the board hits the hero way better than it hit the UTG+1. given you have an open ended straight and 2 overs i think you should always bet the flop.


But to answer your question if you do check the flop, you definetly can call the shove.
 
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razzor94

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Roockie4Life said:
I think you made a mistake checking on the flop. You say you are not worried about the shorty, but by checking the flop I feel like you loose alot of pressure. Here is why (in my opinion)
UTG+1 opens which gives him a range of 77+, AQ+, AJs, KJs+, KQ. I don't think he has QJ, JT or T9 too often unless he has been opening pretty wide. (looking at the stack sizes we are early in the MTT). Your range is a little wider since you just called from MP2. This gives you a range of 22+ (up untill TT, JJ+ i think you 3-bet most of the time), AQ, AJ, A8s+, KJ+, QJ and alot of suited connectors: 87+ (depening on how wide your calling range is).
The shorty however, is a bad player who is scared to lose his tourney, so he just calls preflop with a connector or weak ace I think. Not too much to worry about.

UTG+1 checks the flop which doesn't rly change much on his range. He could be slowplaying any of his good hands. But I think he would c-bet his weaker pocket pairs like 77 or 88.
When we look at the UTG+1 and Hero, it is clear to me that the board hits the hero way better than it hit the UTG+1. given you have an open ended straight and 2 overs i think you should always bet the flop.


But to answer your question if you do check the flop, you definetly can call the shove.
Click to expand...

Yes we do hit this flop more than our opponent. But when I bet do i get any better hands to fold ? Only AT and weaker pairs all against I have very good equity.
Also if he has a set this is a great board for him to check raise and if i bet i would be in a tough spot facing that action and would be trowing away my equity.
I dont think he cbets 77 and 88 especially since the shortstack is getting in regardless of the action ahead.
Going through all this i just realized when he check calls the fish shove his range is very polarized. Either he has the nuts or he has something like KJ AJ and probably AK.
2 pair and sets almost always raise.
Running it trough Poker Stove i have 29% equity against that range and i only need 24 so i think i made the right call.

Checking or betting the flop is debatable but in this spot i still think checking is better just because it helps us realize our equity cheaply and there are not many hands that can fold to just 1 barrel on the flop.
 
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Madsaac

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I think its best to call and take the free card. You say it's just down to your outs but there may be some implied odds and after the UTG1 flats the CO all-in he may have something.

And it sucks if UTG calls your raise and you miss the turn, then you start putting a large part of your stack on the line on a long shot.
 
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stokedog4

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I think the call is fine on the flop. However, I think you can bet more on the river and get the call.

utg1 has roughly 3500 left.. I'd bet 1300 into the 3300 pot. This leave villain with 22bbs left after hand, he's not folding a set or two pair most of the time to that bet.
 
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razzor94

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stokedog4 said:
I think the call is fine on the flop. However, I think you can bet more on the river and get the call.

utg1 has roughly 3500 left.. I'd bet 1300 into the 3300 pot. This leave villain with 22bbs left after hand, he's not folding a set or two pair most of the time to that bet.
Click to expand...

Yeah i was putting him on a Jx as i think 2 pair and sets would have re raised the shortstacks shove.
 
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