$4.4 NLHE MTT: Can i fold A9s to a 10BB shove ?

R

razzor94

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 30/23/0.6

poker stars, $4 Buy-in (1,800/3,600 blinds, 450 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 176,317 (49 bb)
Hero (BB): 121,682 (33.8 bb)
UTG+1: 90,642 (25.2 bb)
UTG+2: 183,020 (50.8 bb)
MP1: 35,029 (9.7 bb)
MP2: 259,825 (72.2 bb)
MP3: 185,875 (51.6 bb)
CO: 125,243 (34.8 bb)
BTN: 86,507 (24 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A
diamond4.gif
9
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2 folds, MP1 raises to 34,579 and is all-in, 5 folds, Hero calls 30,979

Flop: (75,008) K
spade4.gif
9
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J
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(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (75,008) A
heart4.gif
(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (75,008) 5
club4.gif
(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 75,008 pot
Final Board: K
spade4.gif
9
heart4.gif
J
heart4.gif
A
heart4.gif
5
club4.gif


Looking at the push/fold charts he should be showing here very wide here.
I am just asking are there arguments for a fold given that it is an MP1 shove and its a regular speed MTT. If it was a turbo MTT i wouldnt post this hand as i would be pretty sure its a fine call. Since its regular speed i think he might not shove something like JTs or less than A7s. Also we are down to 18 players so i think he might try to pick the best spot possible to shove.
Can i find a fold here ?
 
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trent32la

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Weird spot, I'd call ATo for sure but A9s is close. If villain shoves 22+ A5s+ A8o+ KTs+ KJo+ QTs+ QJo+ J9s+ T9s+, we have 47% equity and it is indeed a call, because we only need 41.3% equity here to call out of the BB.

If I adjust that range to 22+ A8s+ ATo+ KJs+ KQo+ QTs+ QJo+ JTs+ T9s, which is a pretty tight range in itself, we still have 43.2% equity and it is a call.

So yeah, especially given the shover's stats, this is a call.
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

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But what are we losing here by not making a difficult decision?
 
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Roockie4Life

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But what are we losing here by not making a difficult decision?

You are losing a good spot to get a big stack deep in the tourney. The Hero had 34BB's on a pretty deep stacked table adding another 10 would give him a way more confortable spot to make the FT (since there are only 18 players left)

It definetly is a close spot. I think that it depends on how long he has been on that push-fold strategy and how often he was shoving before. If he played loose and lost a big pot 2 hands before this one, I think it's a clear call. But when he had been playing loose, droped lost a pot and then played tight push-fold, it is way closer.
However I think it is still a call. A8 I would fold, and maybe A9o aswell, but A9s I think I call because there are too many combinations like QJ, KJ, KQ, that he shoves aswell
 
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razzor94

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You are losing a good spot to get a big stack deep in the tourney. The Hero had 34BB's on a pretty deep stacked table adding another 10 would give him a way more confortable spot to make the FT (since there are only 18 players left)

It definetly is a close spot. I think that it depends on how long he has been on that push-fold strategy and how often he was shoving before. If he played loose and lost a big pot 2 hands before this one, I think it's a clear call. But when he had been playing loose, droped lost a pot and then played tight push-fold, it is way closer.
However I think it is still a call. A8 I would fold, and maybe A9o aswell, but A9s I think I call because there are too many combinations like QJ, KJ, KQ, that he shoves aswell

I ran the hand history trough universal repleyer and even though he was loose aggresive when he was 30-40BB deep he wasnt pushing all in at all. Its still close but i think raising from UTG should just make my decision easier.
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

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You are losing a good spot to get a big stack deep in the tourney. The Hero had 34BB's on a pretty deep stacked table adding another 10 would give him a way more confortable spot to make the FT (since there are only 18 players left)

It definetly is a close spot. I think that it depends on how long he has been on that push-fold strategy and how often he was shoving before. If he played loose and lost a big pot 2 hands before this one, I think it's a clear call. But when he had been playing loose, droped lost a pot and then played tight push-fold, it is way closer.
However I think it is still a call. A8 I would fold, and maybe A9o aswell, but A9s I think I call because there are too many combinations like QJ, KJ, KQ, that he shoves aswell

So you're folding A9o but not A9s? If it's that close you should probably just fold.

I wouldn't call here because there will be better spots to pick up chips. A10-AK and 99+ have us crushed and there's a decent chance he has a hand like that IMO.
 
N

ninoverm

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So you're folding A9o but not A9s? If it's that close you should probably just fold.

I wouldn't call here because there will be better spots to pick up chips. A10-AK and 99+ have us crushed and there's a decent chance he has a hand like that IMO.

With edges being as tight as they are in these kinda spots, the difference between A9o and A9s is massive.

You can't fold your way to winning a tournament. A9s seems good enough to call here.
 
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