He could also play this line with QQ. His bet on the K looks weak, the only problem is in this spot hero can only really shove or fold. I'd probably fold and look to fight another day.
Perhaps it might have been better to raise on the flop to take away utg agression, or find out if you are beat.
First of all, I would probably 3-bet preflop or at least re-raise on the flop.
If the villain is having some strong flush draw or open-ended straight draws (QT, 78), I would want him to pay up if he wants to see the turn and then the river.
As played, you got yourself in a tough spot. Your action should depend on your read on the opponent, do you think he would bluff all the way to the river, or maybe bluff with AK or KQ on the turn?
Other then those two hands (KQ being more likely one), only QT makes sense to play exactly like this post flop, in which case it does not make sense to raise with that hand pre flop UTG.
All this being said, would put your opponent on KQ and fold, trying to punish him for barreling in the future with some better holdings.
Pre-flop- I agree and there is room for 3bet/f (in case he shoves).
How aggressive has UTG been?
What would he open UTG and then fold to a small 3-bet? (I say small since you mention 3bet/f as an option)
If he probably isn't folding, what range does he have that AJs is ahead of?
If he's not folding and you are not ahead of his range, I don't see any purpose to 3-betting pre-flop.
You could say that if he shoves you are avoiding a potentially larger loss post-flop.
But you would be investing a lot of chips to find out whether he has a premium hand.
And you have at least 30% equity against any hand except AA. You would lose that equity if you fold.
- He was not LAG but more of a TAG player- sizing on the higher side. Always- pre, cbet etc.
- I think he would fold any paid under 88. Maybe even 99. AsQs and lower. Those are hands he won't want to play for stacks on, which is what I'll be repping when I 3bet pre.
- If he is not folding I'm not ahead of anything he calls with.
- I think I'd be investing less by 3betting pre, than by calling all the way (as I did).
He could also play this line with QQ. His bet on the K looks weak, the only problem is in this spot hero can only really shove or fold. I'd probably fold and look to fight another day.
Perhaps it might have been better to raise on the flop to take away utg agression, or find out if you are beat.
I agree with dwarf, I think its a Raise/Fold spot on the flop after you call. For the most part MAWG+Utg raise= qq+ but it is a tournament sooo...
The thing is you are really only beating the very bottom of a TAG's UTG opening range and you're risking to much of your stack size in order to bluff catch, plus they tend to give up on these on the river.
It looks like aces that got scurred of a two pair, or queens imho
I don't see a reason to re-raise flop- nothing that I beat continues with me, and I commit a lot of chips. I don't think there is room there for post flop 3bet fold.
Pre-flop- I agree and there is room for 3bet/f (in case he shoves).
lets pretend preflop he would raise 88+ AQ+ and AJs, KQs and just for kicks a couple hands like 67s,78s,9Ts (we'll give him 2 combos of each of those). that's a 6% range
let's also pretend he will Cbet 100% of that range. so on this flop our hand has 58% equity to win and ties 2.5% of the time. pretty good...so should we raise? well....what will he continue with if we raise? I'd say JJ+, 99, and all club draws (7c8c, AcKc, KcQc etc). Maybe we fold out AJ but often not. let's assume AcJc will call and AdJd and the others will fold (that's being pretty generous to our raise).
Vs. that range he has 79.1% and we have 20.1%. and remember, this includes ALL the club draws in his UTG range...
But as played we flatted the flop and he bets again on turn. Do we think he's still betting hands like 88 or TT? I think not. Do we think he's still betting AK or AQ? I'd say only if he has the club draw to go with it. If that's the case then on this turn card we only have 19% equity.
If we think he is still betting all AK/AQ but not betting the underpairs then we have 54% but I think that is quite generous. I think he'd maybe barrel 2 overs with club draws and maybe a few combos of AK that have the nut flush blocker. If that is the case then we have 44% on this turn card.
vs my experience with old men UTG then 2 barrel ranges....we're either flipping or crushed on this turn. you could call specifically to try and suck out (since the pot odds are nice) but I think that is poor stack management for tourneys.
Don't you think he would continue with KJ and AJ?
Furthermore- I definitely see him continuing with 1010 and 88. Seen a lot of Cbet flop, bet turn, check river lines with this type of board that opens runner runner options
But as played we flatted the flop and he bets again on turn. Do we think he's still betting hands like 88 or TT? I think not. Do we think he's still betting AK or AQ? I'd say only if he has the club draw to go with it. If that's the case then on this turn card we only have 19% equity.
If we think he is still betting all AK/AQ but not betting the underpairs then we have 54% but I think that is quite generous. I think he'd maybe barrel 2 overs with club draws and maybe a few combos of AK that have the nut flush blocker. If that is the case then we have 44% on this turn card.
We know he's old (45? 85? old means different things to different people), male, TAG, and has large bet sizing.
We should lean toward the idea that he is conservative post-flop, but we shouldn't assume too much.
Yeah good point. I’m assuming a lot. I play a ton of soft live tourneys with “old men” so I’ve got a Mental image of villain here that might not be accurate. Because I’m in my 30s when I hear “old man” I think 65+. If our hero is 22 then old man might mean 45 to him which changes my assumptions quite a bit.
But vs the old men I usually play with I’m folding this turn and not even worrying about it. If they bluffed me good for them. The goal is not to be unbluffable (cough...ahem...calling station) the goal is to be profitable.
I really like your analysis here.I would NOT recommend raising on the flop to find out if you're beat (or any other reason). You're making a guess that he has an overpair (QQ+) and raising to find out if he has it? but that hand beats you, so why would you want to raise? Or you're just hoping the he has AK/AQ....but then why would you raise? to let the hands you're beating off the hook? if you raise then the hands you're actually beating fold and the hands that are beating you call. This is the reverse of the outcome solid players want. Also known as Game Theory Disaster.
I agree with you here uavissar. your play until turn is fine; optimal I'd even say. ANd while your stack may have ROOM preflop for a 3b fold I don't think that's optimal unless the player is crazy lag aggro. We're gonna have position with a strong hand that does poorly against 4b ranges. even crazy LAGs play a little tighter UTG. but vs the player you have described flatting AJs sounds optimal to me.
To the people advocating raising flop...you don't want to base your play on finding odd lines that could have changed the outcomes for specific runouts. That is exactly the definition of being results oriented. You want to play your hands in ways where your hand does the best against villain's entire range (and eventually you want to play your hand in a way that your entire range does the best against villain's entire range but that's a bit more advanced).
You flat the flop BECAUSE you're beating AK/AQ and he could have Cbet those. You flat the flop BECAUSE he could still have QQ+ and those are beating you. When he barrels turn the likelihood of him having AK/AQ or an underpair have gone way way way down. We got the same information as if we had raised for much cheaper, we made it closer to the river (giving ourselves a chance to suckout) and kept the weakest parts of his range in the pot.