€330 NLHE MTT Turbo: AJ vs. 3 barrels from UTG

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uavissar

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25/200/400


UTG- old guy. Bets on the high side pre- 2.5x and up. 32k
Hero- button. 22k.

UTG opens to 1400.
Hero is on button with :as4: :js4:
I call.

Flop :jh4: :9c4: :6c4:

UTG bets 2500.
I call

Turn :4d4:
UTG bet 5000
I call.

River :ks4:
UTG bet 5000

Hero?
 
Bozovicdj

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First of all, I would probably 3-bet preflop or at least re-raise on the flop.
If the villain is having some strong flush draw or open-ended straight draws (QT, 78), I would want him to pay up if he wants to see the turn and then the river.
As played, you got yourself in a tough spot. Your action should depend on your read on the opponent, do you think he would bluff all the way to the river, or maybe bluff with AK or KQ on the turn?
Other then those two hands (KQ being more likely one), only QT makes sense to play exactly like this post flop, in which case it does not make sense to raise with that hand pre flop UTG.
All this being said, would put your opponent on KQ and fold, trying to punish him for barreling in the future with some better holdings.
 
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Dwarf

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He could also play this line with QQ. His bet on the K looks weak, the only problem is in this spot hero can only really shove or fold. I'd probably fold and look to fight another day.

Perhaps it might have been better to raise on the flop to take away utg agression, or find out if you are beat.
 
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MrSamsa

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He could also play this line with QQ. His bet on the K looks weak, the only problem is in this spot hero can only really shove or fold. I'd probably fold and look to fight another day.

Perhaps it might have been better to raise on the flop to take away utg agression, or find out if you are beat.


I agree with dwarf, I think its a Raise/Fold spot on the flop after you call. For the most part MAWG+Utg raise= qq+ but it is a tournament sooo...

The thing is you are really only beating the very bottom of a TAG's UTG opening range and you're risking to much of your stack size in order to bluff catch, plus they tend to give up on these on the river.

It looks like aces that got scurred of a two pair, or queens imho
 
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uavissar

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First of all, I would probably 3-bet preflop or at least re-raise on the flop.
If the villain is having some strong flush draw or open-ended straight draws (QT, 78), I would want him to pay up if he wants to see the turn and then the river.
As played, you got yourself in a tough spot. Your action should depend on your read on the opponent, do you think he would bluff all the way to the river, or maybe bluff with AK or KQ on the turn?
Other then those two hands (KQ being more likely one), only QT makes sense to play exactly like this post flop, in which case it does not make sense to raise with that hand pre flop UTG.
All this being said, would put your opponent on KQ and fold, trying to punish him for barreling in the future with some better holdings.

I don't see a reason to re-raise flop- nothing that I beat continues with me, and I commit a lot of chips. I don't think there is room there for post flop 3bet fold.

Pre-flop- I agree and there is room for 3bet/f (in case he shoves).
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Pre-flop- I agree and there is room for 3bet/f (in case he shoves).

How aggressive has UTG been?

What would he open UTG and then fold to a small 3-bet? (I say small since you mention 3bet/f as an option)

If he probably isn't folding, what range does he have that AJs is ahead of?

If he's not folding and you are not ahead of his range, I don't see any purpose to 3-betting pre-flop.

You could say that if he shoves you are avoiding a potentially larger loss post-flop.
But you would be investing a lot of chips to find out whether he has a premium hand.
And you have at least 30% equity against any hand except AA. You would lose that equity if you fold.
 
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uavissar

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How aggressive has UTG been?

What would he open UTG and then fold to a small 3-bet? (I say small since you mention 3bet/f as an option)

If he probably isn't folding, what range does he have that AJs is ahead of?

If he's not folding and you are not ahead of his range, I don't see any purpose to 3-betting pre-flop.

You could say that if he shoves you are avoiding a potentially larger loss post-flop.
But you would be investing a lot of chips to find out whether he has a premium hand.
And you have at least 30% equity against any hand except AA. You would lose that equity if you fold.

- He was not LAG but more of a TAG player- sizing on the higher side. Always- pre, cbet etc.
- I think he would fold any paid under 88. Maybe even 99. AsQs and lower. Those are hands he won't want to play for stacks on, which is what I'll be repping when I 3bet pre.
- If he is not folding I'm not ahead of anything he calls with.
- I think I'd be investing less by 3betting pre, than by calling all the way (as I did).
 
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AlexTheOwl

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- He was not LAG but more of a TAG player- sizing on the higher side. Always- pre, cbet etc.
- I think he would fold any paid under 88. Maybe even 99. AsQs and lower. Those are hands he won't want to play for stacks on, which is what I'll be repping when I 3bet pre.
- If he is not folding I'm not ahead of anything he calls with.
- I think I'd be investing less by 3betting pre, than by calling all the way (as I did).

My guess is that a small 3-bet pre-flop is more likely to inflate the pot when you are behind then it is to get a fold.
And a big 3-bet with AJs against a tight player who raised UTG is too much risk for too little reward.
Hopefully situations where you are calling three streets when behind will be rare. Rarer than making flushes or two pair. We don't want to let the results influence our analysis of what we should have done pre-flop.

As played, I call the flop.
I think about folding the turn. What is he betting with that I beat? Maybe a flush draw?Or maybe he has AJ? I call, but I think I'm probably behind.
On the river I don't know what hand he bets with that I beat. If this is a bluff very well-disguised as a value-bet, then so it goes. The pot odds are tempting, but I'd fold.
 
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Edvin55555

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If he is tight river card is very good for his range. He has all AK, KK, JJ, 99 maybe
suited KJ and KQ. So i wouldn't make a call on river.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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preflop I'm only ever flatting here. I'm not raising or folding.

flop- reluctantly calling but figuring I'm often beat. I'm going to try to get to a cheap showdown unless I improve. Hopefully he has AQ or AK and only has 1 barrel in him.

turn: time to fold. an old man UTG has raised pre, Cbet 70% on flop and barrelled 60% on turn. He is telling us AJ is beat. we should believe him. just keep your life simple and make a disciplined fold on this turn. vs some opponents I'm willing to stack off here. not in this spot though vs this guy.

river: as played he's offering us a great price, but we just can't beat anything. time to fold again. if he had an overpair on the flop we're still beat. if he was barrelling with AK he got there. if he was overvaluing KJ....he sucked out on us. there is literally nothing in his range we are beating except random air and AQ. how many old men have you seen triple barrel bluff with AQ....oh and the river bet is offering an amazing price to call? nope. he's got it.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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He could also play this line with QQ. His bet on the K looks weak, the only problem is in this spot hero can only really shove or fold. I'd probably fold and look to fight another day.

Perhaps it might have been better to raise on the flop to take away utg agression, or find out if you are beat.

I agree with dwarf, I think its a Raise/Fold spot on the flop after you call. For the most part MAWG+Utg raise= qq+ but it is a tournament sooo...

The thing is you are really only beating the very bottom of a TAG's UTG opening range and you're risking to much of your stack size in order to bluff catch, plus they tend to give up on these on the river.

It looks like aces that got scurred of a two pair, or queens imho

I would NOT recommend raising on the flop to find out if you're beat (or any other reason). You're making a guess that he has an overpair (QQ+) and raising to find out if he has it? but that hand beats you, so why would you want to raise? Or you're just hoping the he has AK/AQ....but then why would you raise? to let the hands you're beating off the hook? if you raise then the hands you're actually beating fold and the hands that are beating you call. This is the reverse of the outcome solid players want. Also known as Game Theory Disaster.


I don't see a reason to re-raise flop- nothing that I beat continues with me, and I commit a lot of chips. I don't think there is room there for post flop 3bet fold.

Pre-flop- I agree and there is room for 3bet/f (in case he shoves).

I agree with you here uavissar. your play until turn is fine; optimal I'd even say. ANd while your stack may have ROOM preflop for a 3b fold I don't think that's optimal unless the player is crazy lag aggro. We're gonna have position with a strong hand that does poorly against 4b ranges. even crazy LAGs play a little tighter UTG. but vs the player you have described flatting AJs sounds optimal to me.

To the people advocating raising flop...you don't want to base your play on finding odd lines that could have changed the outcomes for specific runouts. That is exactly the definition of being results oriented. You want to play your hands in ways where your hand does the best against villain's entire range (and eventually you want to play your hand in a way that your entire range does the best against villain's entire range but that's a bit more advanced).


You flat the flop BECAUSE you're beating AK/AQ and he could have Cbet those. You flat the flop BECAUSE he could still have QQ+ and those are beating you. When he barrels turn the likelihood of him having AK/AQ or an underpair have gone way way way down. We got the same information as if we had raised for much cheaper, we made it closer to the river (giving ourselves a chance to suckout) and kept the weakest parts of his range in the pot.
 
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Jacki Burkhart

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lets pretend preflop he would raise 88+ AQ+ and AJs, KQs and just for kicks a couple hands like 67s,78s,9Ts (we'll give him 2 combos of each of those). that's a 6% range

let's also pretend he will Cbet 100% of that range. so on this flop our hand has 58% equity to win and ties 2.5% of the time. pretty good...so should we raise? well....what will he continue with if we raise? I'd say JJ+, 99, and all club draws (7c8c, AcKc, KcQc etc). Maybe we fold out AJ but often not. let's assume AcJc will call and AdJd and the others will fold (that's being pretty generous to our raise).

Vs. that range he has 79.1% and we have 20.1%. and remember, this includes ALL the club draws in his UTG range...

But as played we flatted the flop and he bets again on turn. Do we think he's still betting hands like 88 or TT? I think not. Do we think he's still betting AK or AQ? I'd say only if he has the club draw to go with it. If that's the case then on this turn card we only have 19% equity.

If we think he is still betting all AK/AQ but not betting the underpairs then we have 54% but I think that is quite generous. I think he'd maybe barrel 2 overs with club draws and maybe a few combos of AK that have the nut flush blocker. If that is the case then we have 44% on this turn card.

vs my experience with old men UTG then 2 barrel ranges....we're either flipping or crushed on this turn. you could call specifically to try and suck out (since the pot odds are nice) but I think that is poor stack management for tourneys.
 
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uavissar

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lets pretend preflop he would raise 88+ AQ+ and AJs, KQs and just for kicks a couple hands like 67s,78s,9Ts (we'll give him 2 combos of each of those). that's a 6% range

let's also pretend he will Cbet 100% of that range. so on this flop our hand has 58% equity to win and ties 2.5% of the time. pretty good...so should we raise? well....what will he continue with if we raise? I'd say JJ+, 99, and all club draws (7c8c, AcKc, KcQc etc). Maybe we fold out AJ but often not. let's assume AcJc will call and AdJd and the others will fold (that's being pretty generous to our raise).

Vs. that range he has 79.1% and we have 20.1%. and remember, this includes ALL the club draws in his UTG range...

But as played we flatted the flop and he bets again on turn. Do we think he's still betting hands like 88 or TT? I think not. Do we think he's still betting AK or AQ? I'd say only if he has the club draw to go with it. If that's the case then on this turn card we only have 19% equity.

If we think he is still betting all AK/AQ but not betting the underpairs then we have 54% but I think that is quite generous. I think he'd maybe barrel 2 overs with club draws and maybe a few combos of AK that have the nut flush blocker. If that is the case then we have 44% on this turn card.

vs my experience with old men UTG then 2 barrel ranges....we're either flipping or crushed on this turn. you could call specifically to try and suck out (since the pot odds are nice) but I think that is poor stack management for tourneys.

Don't you think he would continue with KJ and AJ?
Furthermore- I definitely see him continuing with 1010 and 88. Seen a lot of Cbet flop, bet turn, check river lines with this type of board that opens runner runner options
 
Jacki Burkhart

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Don't you think he would continue with KJ and AJ?
Furthermore- I definitely see him continuing with 1010 and 88. Seen a lot of Cbet flop, bet turn, check river lines with this type of board that opens runner runner options

I didn't put KJ in his opening range. If it's in there I think he might continue with it and he might not. AJ same thing. (again I only put AJs in his opening range).


You've played with this player more than me. if you think he's continuing on turn with 88 then he definitely is with KJ. if that's the case then the turn call is fine. I just don't think that's true for most opponents OOP, but again you know your customer better than me.


If you think he's the type to raise KJs UTG and fire 3 barrels with underpairs as weak as 88 then this turn call is fine. you would have 58% on the flop and you would have 65% on the turn. as played even with the K on river you've got 50%. I don't see him 3 barreling with 88, TT or AQ but if you feel differently by all means call off. I'd call turn vs a lot of villains with the plan of stacking off on a lot of rivers. This river is bad for us though. And why wouldn't he just shove if he's bluffing? You've only got 70% of pot left and he can maximize his fold equity by putting your tourney life on the line. but he didn't do that. he seems to want to make sure you call. He probably has KK and rivered a set and is afraid of missing value so he bet small enough you could call.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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But as played we flatted the flop and he bets again on turn. Do we think he's still betting hands like 88 or TT? I think not. Do we think he's still betting AK or AQ? I'd say only if he has the club draw to go with it. If that's the case then on this turn card we only have 19% equity.

If we think he is still betting all AK/AQ but not betting the underpairs then we have 54% but I think that is quite generous. I think he'd maybe barrel 2 overs with club draws and maybe a few combos of AK that have the nut flush blocker. If that is the case then we have 44% on this turn card.

This is a nice job of laying out the best and worst case scenarios.


On the turn it's 8625 in the pot and 5000 to call, so we need 37% chip equity, setting aside ICM considerations. So if we have 19% we should fold, but if we have 44% we should call.


The hero has not shown any real strength (no 3-bet pre, called from the button where calling ranges are wider than they would be from earlier positions, called a c-bet on a flop that missed most of both player's ranges)
The turn is a brick.
I think villains fire a second barrel with overcards somewhat frequently here. It's a smart play, especially if they have a tight image.
There is a good chance the hero called on the flop with no made hand, or a weak hand.
So I definitely think we have more than 19%.


We know he's old (45? 85? old means different things to different people), male, TAG, and has large bet sizing.
We should lean toward the idea that he is conservative post-flop, but we shouldn't assume too much.
44% seems too high though.


I think our actual chip equity is in the low to mid 30's, roughly splitting the difference between your high and low end estimates. And we should be loss averse for ICM reasons.
At the table I would have reluctantly called the turn.
But you have convinced me that it is a fold.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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We know he's old (45? 85? old means different things to different people), male, TAG, and has large bet sizing.
We should lean toward the idea that he is conservative post-flop, but we shouldn't assume too much.

Yeah good point. I’m assuming a lot. I play a ton of soft live tourneys with “old men” so I’ve got a Mental image of villain here that might not be accurate. Because I’m in my 30s when I hear “old man” I think 65+. If our hero is 22 then old man might mean 45 to him which changes my assumptions quite a bit.


But vs the old men I usually play with I’m folding this turn and not even worrying about it. If they bluffed me good for them. The goal is not to be unbluffable (cough...ahem...calling station) the goal is to be profitable.
 
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uavissar

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Yeah good point. I’m assuming a lot. I play a ton of soft live tourneys with “old men” so I’ve got a Mental image of villain here that might not be accurate. Because I’m in my 30s when I hear “old man” I think 65+. If our hero is 22 then old man might mean 45 to him which changes my assumptions quite a bit.


But vs the old men I usually play with I’m folding this turn and not even worrying about it. If they bluffed me good for them. The goal is not to be unbluffable (cough...ahem...calling station) the goal is to be profitable.

Over 60 is old. By definition :)
Though I still think turn is a call and agree with Alex here.
I didn't play a sufficient number of hands with this player. If I'd have a better read on him I may fold there, but against a random I call.
 
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I would NOT recommend raising on the flop to find out if you're beat (or any other reason). You're making a guess that he has an overpair (QQ+) and raising to find out if he has it? but that hand beats you, so why would you want to raise? Or you're just hoping the he has AK/AQ....but then why would you raise? to let the hands you're beating off the hook? if you raise then the hands you're actually beating fold and the hands that are beating you call. This is the reverse of the outcome solid players want. Also known as Game Theory Disaster.




I agree with you here uavissar. your play until turn is fine; optimal I'd even say. ANd while your stack may have ROOM preflop for a 3b fold I don't think that's optimal unless the player is crazy lag aggro. We're gonna have position with a strong hand that does poorly against 4b ranges. even crazy LAGs play a little tighter UTG. but vs the player you have described flatting AJs sounds optimal to me.

To the people advocating raising flop...you don't want to base your play on finding odd lines that could have changed the outcomes for specific runouts. That is exactly the definition of being results oriented. You want to play your hands in ways where your hand does the best against villain's entire range (and eventually you want to play your hand in a way that your entire range does the best against villain's entire range but that's a bit more advanced).


You flat the flop BECAUSE you're beating AK/AQ and he could have Cbet those. You flat the flop BECAUSE he could still have QQ+ and those are beating you. When he barrels turn the likelihood of him having AK/AQ or an underpair have gone way way way down. We got the same information as if we had raised for much cheaper, we made it closer to the river (giving ourselves a chance to suckout) and kept the weakest parts of his range in the pot.
I really like your analysis here.

To be clear, the reason you would raise in this situation is because, AJ is weak. Its not a hand you want to really call down to showdown. When you flop tptk, and he c-bets, the question i would have, is what am i gonna call a turn bet too.

If your plan is to generally fold to turn bets unless they improve you, you are throwing away chips calling.

Raising here does 2 things, 1 it could win you the pot.
2, it could get you to show down and stop his further barrels.

as played hero put in 7500chips combined on the flop and turn when odds where against a turn card changing his relative hand strength.

I would rather not see a turn card, if im inclined to believe im ahead.

If you are going to fold to most turn bets, dont call the flop bet. Hence a raise or fold mentality for me on the flop.
 
liuouhgkres

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OP,
AJs is one of the best hands you can 3-bet preflop as a bluff, along with ATs and KQs. If you are deeper you might 3-bet A5s, A4s instead of those hands. You have blockers and if called can flo decent draw to continue. So...

Preflop: 3-bet-fold.
Flop: Just call, no reason to turn your hand into bluff and raise.
Turn: Now I think it's time to fold. You don't beat any value bet, and you actually block some bluffs like AK or AQ. It is much better to call with TT here than AJ.
River: Fold again.
 
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