$300 NLHE MTT: Aggressive with 77

AlexTheOwl · Oct 15, 2017

iPoker - 400/800 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 62.96 BB
BB: 39.91 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, hands: 9)
UTG: 73.48 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG+1: 62.61 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP: 66.67 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP+1: 73.17 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
CO: 72.67 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 9)
BTN: 95.21 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 7♣7♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.62 BB, Hero raises to 8.09 BB, fold, BTN raises to 17.55 BB, Hero calls 9.46 BB

Flop: (36.9 BB, 2 players) J♦T♣9♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 11.25 BB, Hero raises to 45.31 BB

Early in a tournament on ignition / Bovada / bodog / Bodog88.

I cancelled my casino trip today to play in the ACR Million Dollar Sunday, and got knocked out early. I've been playing well and running good, so I sank about a quarter of my Ignition bankroll into this tourney.

As they say on TV, DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME. This wasn't a particularly smart idea, but I play mostly for fun. My poker bankroll is decent, I usually sit at the casino with $500. So I won't be begging for pennies after this. I will soon be back to the smaller buy-ins online that are appropriate for my skill level.

Anyway, a re-steal attempt with a small pair here, and a bluff with a gutshot after a weak-looking c-bet. Was I insane to risk this much, this early in the tourney? Or was this a golden opportunity?

Edit: I should mention that this tourney, the "GSPO5 Fifth Anniversary Special", has 5-minute levels.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

Bad luck on the ACR tourney. But what you did afterwards, is just BAD.

As far as the word 'TILT' goes, you're deep diving in it.

Yeah, you lost in one tourney, but you knew that it was just a shot, nothing more. Win would have been great, but loss isn't bad either ~ that's the way you should think while taking a shot.

As far as the hand goes, there's no point in re-stealing here. A 5% jump in stack at this stage of the game isn't significant. Still lets look at the line again.
Pre-flop: BTN opens, ???
BTN Range: {22+, Ax+, K9s+, KTo+, QTs+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s}; or some versions of it.

You get 77. You decide to 3-bet re-steal.
Your 3-betting range from that spot from Villain's perspective:
{77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs}; or some versions depending on how active you've been.

Given those infos, Villain decides to 4-bets (Yikes!):
His 4-betting range: {JJ+, AKo, AQs+}; a tweak here-n-there

Now the actions' back to you, given that you see such a tight 4-bet range, what should you've done with your 77? Why are you giving him another 9.5bb? Fold to a 4-bet?
Off course, it all depends on your aggressiveness. If you've been active a lot, 3-betting a lot, his range would be weaker. But if you have been moderate, his 4-betting range is almost as stated.

Flop: J♦T♣9♦
Check, bet 1/3rd pot, ???
Now given the range we've assigned him. Evaluate for yourself how to best approach it, taking into consideration that AKo (without A♦ blocker) and AKs (except A♦K♦) are the only hands that should fold to a Check/Raise.

I would have much rather set-mined from the SB and folded any flop without a 7 or a OESD (for me) in it.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

AviCKter said:
Bad luck on the ACR tourney. But what you did afterwards, is just BAD.

As far as the word 'TILT' goes, you're deep diving in it.

Yeah, you lost in one tourney, but you knew that it was just a shot, nothing more. Win would have been great, but loss isn't bad either ~ that's the way you should think while taking a shot.

I didn't think my chances were good in that ACR tourney. It's never fun to lose, but mostly I was annoyed that I chose to play the ACR tournament instead of going to the casino, and then I was only in the ACR tourney for about 90 minutes.

I finished this Ignition tourney 66th out of ~350. Thirty-six made the money. No regrets.

Bankroll considerations are different for recreational players. When I started playing online, I was already a successful live player. I played medium-to-high stakes online, because it seemed silly to play for a few dollars. But I wasn't prepared for those games, so I dropped lower so I wouldn't get beat up so often.

I keep a 10k bankroll for my live 2/5 games, so putting a quarter of my Ignition bankroll into one game is a lot different from putting a quarter of my poker bankroll in one game. I play mostly for fun, and I was in the mood to play for stakes that matter to me since I wasn't going to the casino, so I took a shot. I won't be staying at high stakes because I don't have the skill set.

AviCKter said:
As far as the hand goes, there's no point in re-stealing here. A 5% jump in stack at this stage of the game isn't significant. Still lets look at the line again.
Pre-flop: BTN opens, ???
BTN Range: {22+, Ax+, K9s+, KTo+, QTs+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s}; or some versions of it.

You get 77. You decide to 3-bet re-steal.
Your 3-betting range from that spot from Villain's perspective:
{77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs}; or some versions depending on how active you've been.

Given those infos, Villain decides to 4-bets (Yikes!):
His 4-betting range: {JJ+, AKo, AQs+}; a tweak here-n-there

Now the actions' back to you, given that you see such a tight 4-bet range, what should you've done with your 77? Why are you giving him another 9.5bb? Fold to a 4-bet?
Off course, it all depends on your aggressiveness. If you've been active a lot, 3-betting a lot, his range would be weaker. But if you have been moderate, his 4-betting range is almost as stated.

More than half of the combos in his 4-bet range are AK and AQ, weighted towards AK. I'm getting 3:1 odds to call. If there is no A or K on the flop, I like my chances that he will fold to a big flop bet.

I only have 9 hands against this villain, but I've been playing 6/3/0 in the tourney so far. So I think your assessment of his 4-bet range is accurate, with the possibility of some light 4-betting mixed in at this buy-in.

AviCKter said:
Flop: J♦T♣9♦
Check, bet 1/3rd pot, ???
Now given the range we've assigned him. Evaluate for yourself how to best approach it, taking into consideration that AKo (without A♦ blocker) and AKs (except A♦K♦) are the only hands that should fold to a Check/Raise.

I would have much rather set-mined from the SB and folded any flop without a 7 or a OESD (for me) in it.

C-bet looks weak, and I'm ahead of most of the hands that he 4-bets with (AK and AQ). I've probably got 6 outs (the gutshot and the two remaining 7's), so ~24% equity even if he has a pair. The pot is large already.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
C-bet looks weak

Off late, 1/3rd pot C-bet seems to be the norm (at mid- & high-stakes). That's not necessarily a weak bet.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

AviCKter said:
Off late, 1/3rd pot C-bet seems to be the norm (at mid- & high-stakes). That's not necessarily a weak bet.

I didn't know that, that might have influenced my decision.

BTW, just to be clear on the BRM stuff, I am not fabulously wealthy. I don't want to seem boastful.
I'm just a portly divorced middle-aged guy with no kids, a stable job, a paid-off mortgage, a two-year old car I bought without a loan, and a decent amount of retirement savings.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
BTW, just to be clear on the BRM stuff, I am not fabulously wealthy. I don't want to seem boastful.
I'm just a portly divorced middle-aged guy with no kids, a stable job, a paid-off mortgage, a two-year old car I bought without a loan, and a decent amount of retirement savings.

I wasn't being inquisitive. I understand that people choose differently and that's the fact of life, we all have our own criteria for all the decisions we make.

All I was trying to convey was the fact that ONLINE games are a beast of a different kind, the level playing field is way too much knowledgeable & hard-working and to beat them, you need to come at-par with their skill-sets. The way I look at an investment is whether I'm good enough, have I done the due-diligence, can I compete in a field and what kind of returns am I being promised; I do it on most of my decisions. Money is still money, the more the merrier. Your decision wasn't rational on that occasion (you played it because of external factors, emotions in this instance, i.e. TILT).
I have a good BR to get into the high-stakes games at PS, but I'm not looking to get into it at the moment, simply because I lack a coherent understanding of the field & their skill-sets and that needs to be developed and it takes time to do that. That's part of the reason, why despite having little-to-no time, I experiment with those smaller networks (888, ACR, and others), play freerolls/stress-free games, invest small amounts to learn a new game (satellites), etc.

On the note of Hand-Review, he had 12 folding hands and 29 continuing hands (off the 12 folding hands, he might continue with some and off the 29 hands, he might fold some, which balances each other out). Your gutshot isn't necessarily an out, you've reverse implied odds against some Q in his range.

So to conclude, I would say, not a spot you could have made the play profitable. Had you done it on some different board texture/some other scenarios, I might been on-board with the bluff. But I get the idea of what you were trying to accomplish and kudos for trying.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

I absolutely agree that playing this tournament was not a +EV decision.

From a classical economics point of view, all money spent on entertainment is irrational spending. But almost everyone living above the sustenance level spends money on entertainment.

Poker is my hobby, and it has the added benefit of overall being a small supplement to my income. I'd play even if it cost me some money to do so. I usually prefer to play where I am not outclassed by the competition, but I decided it would be more entertaining to play higher. I wouldn't describe myself as tilted at the time.

AviCKter said:
On the note of Hand-Review, he had 12 folding hands and 29 continuing hands (off the 12 folding hands, he might continue with some and off the 29 hands, he might fold some, which balances each other out). Your gutshot isn't necessarily an out, you've reverse implied odds against some Q in his range.[/COLOR]

You're correct about the 8 not being an out if he has a Q, and the continuing hands, but I want calls if he has a straight draw or a flush draw.
I'm ahead of most of the hands with which he continues.
The only hands I fear here are AA, KK, JJ, QQ, AdQd, and AdKd. Overall, I am ahead of his range on the flop, and I have considerable fold equity.
Your response is well thought-out as usual, but I still see this as a profitable spot.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
The only hands I fear here are AA, KK, JJ, QQ, AdQd, and AdKd. Overall, I am ahead of his range on the flop, and I have considerable fold equity.

Yeah, but that's almost his entire range (unless he's a spewy player). You were awfully behind his range and no, you didn't have fold equity; its almost always true in 4-bet spots, you don't have much fold equity on those kind of hands.

Remember your AA hand (satellite)? What opinion did we have about the opponent's 4-bet? We were all in agreement that he spewed his chip off, and that's what you did here. May be it worked for you this time, but it wouldn't work very often.

But if you were playing for fun, why not? If it worked, you should have shown him the bluff. Uhh, wait. No, never do it. Never show a bluff.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

I am sure Avi knows this, but for anyone else reading, there are 6 combos that make a pocket pair, and 16 combos that make up other hands.

So the hands where I am behind:
AA, KK, JJ, QQ are four pairs with 6 combos each, so 24 combos
AdQd and AdKd are one combo each
24 +2 = 26 combos I am behind, though I still have some equity against all of them

AQ and AK are two hands with 16 combos each, so 32 combos.
Of those 32, I am behind two of them (AdQd and AdKd)
32 - 2 = 30 combos I am ahead, though only slightly for most of them.

I am playing for fun, but I'm playing to win.

If the villain shoved the flop, I would need to call due to pot odds. If I shove, he may look at his QQ or AQ and decide he's too far behind to call. I look like I have a strong hand here.

People who don't bluff enough should show bluffs. Or, even better, bluff more.

Edit: Originally in this post I said I was ahead of villain's range on the flop. I actually have ~38% equity.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
I am ahead of his range on the flop, which is reason enough to put all the chips in.
And I do have some fold equity.

COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF THE HAND
---------------------------------------------------

No. of combinations of each pair {JJ+} = 6
Total number of combinations = 24

Flop: J♦T♣9♦
But there's a J on the flop, so his JJ combos goes to 3. So the total number of pair combinations are 21.

Combinations of AKo = 12
Combinations of AQs/AKs = 4

Total combinations pre-flop, giving him a range {JJ+, AKo, AQs+}= 21+12+8 = 41

On the flop,
Against QQ you've 7% equity.
Against KK you've 21% equity.
Against AA you've 22% equity.
Against his continuing A-high combo draw (flush+gutshot+overs), you've 58% equity.
Against his AQs (flush draw + straight draw), you've 28% equity.
Against JJ, you've 13% equity.

He's folding 12 combinations, while continuing with 29 combinations.
Fold % = 12/41 = 29%
Call % = 1-.29 = 71%

Against his continuing range, you've 25% equity.

EV = .29* 48.15 + .71*(65.26*.25-62.96*.75) = -7.98

You're not ahead of his range on the flop. You were way behind.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

RE-ITERATING

Never show a bluff (especially, ONLINE)

You simply don't know the kind of monsters you're waking up.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

AviCKter said:
COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF THE HAND
---------------------------------------------------

No. of combinations of each pair {JJ+} = 6
Total number of combinations = 24

Flop: J♦T♣9♦
But there's a J on the flop, so his JJ combos goes to 3. So the total number of pair combinations are 21.

Combinations of AKo = 12
Combinations of AQs/AKs = 4

Total combinations pre-flop, giving him a range {JJ+, AKo, AQs+}= 21+12+8 = 41

On the flop,
Against QQ you've 7% equity.
Against KK you've 21% equity.
Against AA you've 22% equity.
Against his continuing A-high combo draw (flush+gutshot+overs), you've 58% equity.
Against his AQs (flush draw + straight draw), you've 28% equity.
Against JJ, you've 13% equity.

He's folding 12 combinations, while continuing with 29 combinations.
Fold % = 12/41 = 29%
Call % = 1-.29 = 71%

Against his continuing range, you've 25% equity.

EV = .29* 48.15 + .71*(65.26*.25-62.96*.75) = -7.98

You're not ahead of his range on the flop. You were way behind.

Yes, you are correct, I corrected my post before you posted. 38% equity on the flop, 25% on future streets if he calls.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

AviCKter said:
Never show a bluff (specially, ONLINE)

You simply don't know the kind of monsters you're waking up.

I auto-muck. But never and always are words that should never be used in poker. Show a fish a bluff and he'll always . . . eh, ok he'll usually put you on a bluff the next time you make a big bet.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
But never and always are words that should never be used in poker

The problem with this is you're ignoring the rest of the table. An observant opponent will make a note of it and start pushing small edges against you (pre-flop, flop, turn, river), and in most decision points, you'll be facing a lot tougher decision.

Didn't see the corrections.

And yeah, you were all-in on the flop. So no more decision points.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
Yes, you are correct, I corrected my post before you posted. 38% equity on the flop, 25% on future streets if he calls.

Let me make another correction here, I was adding AQo into his range (not unreasonable), but we were discussing [JJ+,AK,AQs]. 36% equity on the flop against this range.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

AviCKter said:
The problem with this is you're ignoring the rest of the table. An observant opponent will make a note of it and start pushing small edges against you (pre-flop, flop, turn, river), and in most decision points, you'll be facing a lot tougher decision.

True, but I'm often heads-up in Ignition at the end of SNGs with anonymous opponents (no usernames, just numbers randomly assigned at the start of the game). And in live poker, "show the bluff for the good of the game" is a common phrase for a reason. Depending on the composition of the table, the advantages can outweigh the disadvantages.

AviCKter said:
Didn't see the corrections.

Understandable. I've been on a conference call with Bangalore most of the time I've been responding. That's made this thread a bit sloppy. I really shouldn't do that, but these calls are too boring.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
And in live poker, "show the bluff for the good of the game" is a common phrase for a reason.

Good for those who're observant, bad for the player making it. That said, it pushes the action along, live poker can be long & boring, so its good to see some action.

AlexTheOwl said:
Understandable. I've been on a conference call with Bangalore most of the time I've been responding. That's made this thread a bit sloppy. I really shouldn't do that, but these calls are too boring.

ROFL. What is the call about?
Ask them to send some masala dosa to my place, while you're at it (I live on the east coast).

:elefant:

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

AviCKter said:
Good for those who're observant, bad for the player making it. That said, it pushes the action along, live poker can be long & boring, so its good to see some action.

ROFL. What is the call about?
Ask them to send some masala dosa to my place, while you're at it (I live on the east coast). :elefant:

I manage software products, all of our Quality Assurance is outsourced to a firm in Bangalore. Necessary work, and the firm we work with is top-notch. But so very boring, and I'm sleepy.

I'd like to visit india someday, Dubai is the closest I've come. I would gladly share a dinner table with you if we are ever in the same city.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
I'd like to visit India someday, Dubai is the closest I've come. I would gladly share a dinner table with you if we are ever in the same city.

You should. Especially during HOLI or DIWALI (its almost DIWALI time).

Let's make it a deal. Whenever you're in India, do let me know. :shakehand
Personally, I don't like Bangalore though (barring some people who live there, I see a dull/colorless/lifeless city, I'm not sure of the adjective to be used here).

AlexTheOwl · Oct 16, 2017

I don't see a visit to India happening soon, but will do.

I'm in Connecticut, about 45 minutes by train from New York City, though I mostly work from home. If you are ever in town, please let me know.

AviCKter · Oct 16, 2017

AlexTheOwl said:
I don't see a visit to India happening soon, but will do.

I'm in Connecticut, about 45 minutes by train from New York City, though I mostly work from home. If you are ever in town, please let me know.

Will do.

AlexTheOwl · Oct 17, 2017

It seems unlikely that anyone other than Avi and I have made it all the way to the bottom of this thread, but here is the rest of the hand for anyone who is curious:

b]Turn:[/b] (127.51 BB, 2 players) 8♥

River: (127.51 BB, 2 players) 5♣

Hero shows 7♣ 7♠ (Straight, Jack High)
(Pre 20%, Flop 22%, Turn 93%)
BTN shows A♠ A♦ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 80%, Flop 78%, Turn 7%)
Hero wins 127.51 BB

Plan A was that the Villain folds pre-flop, Plan B was that the villain folds post-flop, Plan C was to win at showdown. I was lucky that Plan C worked.

$300 NLHE MTT: Aggressive with 77

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