This is a discussion on $30 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $30 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Profitable call on the long run? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Level 2 of a 30$ rebuy tournament
Considering the blocker in my hand do you think this is a good call?
On the river, I have to ask myself whether the villain would bet with a weaker ace, a five or a two, or a pure bluff.
In other words, how fishy and/or aggressive is he? Do you know anything about the villain?
He open-limped from early position and called a 3x raise, so that seems fishy.
Against an unknown villain, I'd probably make a crying call, given those pot odds.
November 15th, 2017, 3:02 PM
short answer: CALL.
Lets think about his range. He probably calls preflop with weak Ax, smaller broadways, suit connecters and small pocket pairs. His range preflop is capped, he shouldn't have strong Ax hands or strong pocket pairs, you can definitely assume that he would raise them.
Now your range is not capped. You have all possible strong holdings in your range but also, since you are raising over the limper, your range would be somewhat wide. In short, you will have a lot of Ax hands that you will check on the turn, in your checking range AQ is actually near the top of your range. if you fold AQ, you would be overfolding in this situation, and villains will make auto-profit on you just with betting any two on the river. Your blocker makes it even easier. Villain has a lot of weak Ax hands that he could bet like that.
Also, another factor is betting size. Imho it is too small, which usually indicates about merged range. Which is good for you. Though in this situation he showed flush, usually people bet bigger with monsters on the river.