$3 NLHE MTT Turbo: 2nd pair vs push on river (A-10s)

pokerstars - Hold'em MTT - $50.0/100.0 Blinds - 8 Players (9max)

bruce_lee37 (BTN): $6,078
Axzeh (SB): $4,734
sir mont3ki (BB): $4,103
vauxer (UTG): $4,660 - Hero, Hand - Ah 10h
vucuong0711 (UTG+1): $5,901
DArtargnan (MP1): $3,964
diegornellas (MP2): $5,589
jencel (CO): $13,746

Pre-flop:
vauxer raises to $225, (5 folds), Axzeh calls $175, (1 folds)

Flop: ($646) 5h Ts 6h (2 Players)
I have top pair + flush draw
Axzeh checks, vauxer bets $329, Axzeh calls $329

Turn: ($1,304) Jc (2 Players)
Axzeh checks, vauxer bets $665, Axzeh calls $665

River: ($2,634) 8s (2 Players)
Axzeh bets $2,634 All-in,
Hero ?

vox1er said:

PokerStars - Hold'em MTT - $50.0/100.0 Blinds - 8 Players (9max)

bruce_lee37 (BTN): $6,078
Axzeh (SB): $4,734
sir mont3ki (BB): $4,103
vauxer (UTG): $4,660 - Hero, Hand - Ah 10h
vucuong0711 (UTG+1): $5,901
DArtargnan (MP1): $3,964
diegornellas (MP2): $5,589
jencel (CO): $13,746

Pre-flop:
vauxer raises to $225, (5 folds), Axzeh calls $175, (1 folds)

Flop: ($646) 5h Ts 6h (2 Players)
I have top pair + flush draw
Axzeh checks, vauxer bets $329, Axzeh calls $329

Turn: ($1,304) Jc (2 Players)
Axzeh checks, vauxer bets $665, Axzeh calls $665

River: ($2,634) 8s (2 Players)
Axzeh bets $2,634 All-in,

Click to expand...

vox1er said:

Hero ?

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Question on the math/HH – hero opens UTG and is called by SB only? Pot should be $550, not $646??? How would it ever be $646 anyway? Was this a Cash game HH? Also, the all-in on the river doesn’t add up either, effective stack, as played OTR should be $3,441 – feels like there’s been some doctoring here.

OTF it’s really the same difference, so I won’t harp on it too much. $646 is an SPR of 7, while $550 would be more like 8 – and we’re going to want to employ the same strategy either way and figure out how best to chunk our stack off here. We’re never folding, this flop is essentially Gin, in addition to all the card removal blocks our hand provides.

To effectively chunk, in a 7 or 8 SPR pot, we’re simply going to be betting .75 pot all the way down. In live poker, I’d just make it easy and bet $475 to a $646 pot, but online you can actually go .75 – doesn’t really matter much IMO as long as it’s .75-ish.

After the flop we have $4,435 and are effective. Bet $485, $3,950 back.

No way we’re slowing down – Bet $1,215, $2,735 back.

Pot is now $4,046 and villain bets effective $2,735 and we have a pretty easy call here just by planning our bet sizes a little different (we’re about 2:7, 2/5 here, and it feels like we have to be good here 40% of the time).

Of course, we are beat, somehow, a fair chunk of the time, nonetheless, I think this is a call – and honestly, with better, SPR related, bet sizing, maybe we don’t face this dilemma at all.

And above all, something is wrong with this HH - please advise.

ssbn743 said:

Question on the math/HH – hero opens UTG and is called by SB only? Pot should be $550, not $646??? How would it ever be $646 anyway?

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Because of the antes, which was apparently 12$ per player. 12x8=96, 550+96=646, it adds up. There is something wrong on the river though, because if he went all in, it was not exactly a pot sized bet, it was a slight overbet. It does not really change the situation all that much, but I will analyse the hand assuming, we are facing a slight overbet on the river, and that the Villain did in fact go all in.

First I think, preflop, flop and turn are all fine and frankly pretty standard. Half pot betting often work well in MTTs, because people are more conservative about getting their stack inside, than they are in cash games, and rightfully so.

The river action is obviously pretty gross, and we clearly only have a bluff catcher. My general thinking about donk bets is, that the Villain is either bluffing, or his hand somehow improved.

There are not that many logical hands, that improved on the river, but there are some. Q9 and 97 made a straight, but he should probably only have the hearts combos. T8 made two pair, but he should probably only have the suited combos.

So there are some hands, that beat us, but unless he is really bad, not all that many. We should have heard from flopped sets or JT no later than on the turn. But then again how often is he on some wild bluff here for essentially his tournament life?

If we have an overpair or set, which we are sort of representing, this river card is not particularly scary to us. So to me this does not look like a great spot to go on a wild bluff. AT is probably one of the worst made hands in out range at this point, and we block some of the missed draws, he could have. So I think, I fold here and live to fight another day.

Hi, what information do you have of the villain? This is very important to know what we are facing but by the action at the table I call on the river there is no logic in the all-in of the villain unless he is a fish, my reasoning is the following if he has a good hand like two pairs or completed with the 8 a straight should check wait for your bet and then raise does not make sense the all-in to provoke your fold, with the information of the villain would be easier to determine this, however I think it is a bluff and very badly executed by the way

A little more evidence to support my call suggestion (check attachment) (also, thanks for the ante clarification):

Here are the ranges I've assigned on a 6h Ts 5h Jc 8s board:

AThh
JJ-55,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,Kh9h,Qh9h,Jh9h,Th9h,ATo-A9o,K9o+,QTo-Q9o,J9o+

This gives us 53% equity against his range, breakeven is 41% here - so if anyone wants to play with these ranges and see if it gets worse or better. I still think we have a enough wiggle room to be profitable here - this is a call IMO.

Just realized that I did the math based on my proposed 3/4 pot bet sizing.

As played, it's much closer to 50/50 - I still vote call

ssbn743 said:

Here are the ranges I've assigned on a 6h Ts 5h Jc 8s board:

AThh
JJ-55,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,Kh9h,Qh9h,Jh9h,Th9h,ATo-A9o,K9o+,QTo-Q9o,J9o+

This gives us 53% equity against his range, breakeven is 41% here - so if anyone wants to play with these ranges and see if it gets worse or better. I still think we have a enough wiggle room to be profitable here - this is a call IMO.

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This is way to wide and merged in my opinion. 77, 99, A9o, K9o fold the flop or the turn. KhJh, QhJh, Jh9h, Th9h, ATo, QTo, J9o all check the river and try to get to a cheap showdown. By donk showing these hands he never get called by worse, and he dont need to bluff, because he has showdown value.

I think u can't put that choice in ur mind with 10 seconds.. u need to pay attention in the rival more than that so, i prefer make a move thinking about something like: this play is a professional move? or is too fish? that's make sens for me when I have to make some choise in the field.

You have a pair of 1010 with a great kicker, but you can only beat a clean bluff or the same 1010 with a kicker 9; Q; K. If you think that this is quite enough to jeopardize your continued participation in the tournament, you have excellent chances to finish it ahead of time.