$3 NLHE MTT: Too much reliance on HUD stats. Hero has QQ in the SB.

A

awesome

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 36/3/1.5

We're near the bubble and I have 190 hands on Villain who is running an insane 36% VPIP with a 3% PFR.

I have QQ in the SB. Against most players I'm 3b'ing QQ OOP but I'm in pretty bad shape against a 3% pre-flop raiser on the bubble.

I decided to flat.

Any views?

Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: peepgamemf (18149).
Seat 2: stockmanaz (11520).
Seat 3: Hero (62079).
Seat 4: IAlwaysWyn81 (1845).
Seat 5: bedard310 (62251).
Seat 6: bigred58 (28224).
Seat 7: SucribeMan (41782).
Seat 8: SSNNAAKKEE (25413).
Seat 9: pokerprofit.net (11899).
Hero ante (75)
Player IAlwaysWyn81 ante (75)
Player bedard310 ante (75)
Player bigred58 ante (75)
Player SucribeMan ante (75)
Player SSNNAAKKEE ante (75)
Player pokerprofit.net ante (75)
Player peepgamemf ante (75)
Player stockmanaz ante (75)
Hero has small blind (350)
Player IAlwaysWyn81 has big blind (700)
Hero received card: <font color='red'>Q♦</font></font>
Hero received card: <font color='red'>Q♥</font>
Player IAlwaysWyn81 received a card.
Player IAlwaysWyn81 received a card.
Player bedard310 received a card.
Player bedard310 received a card.
Player bigred58 received a card.
Player bigred58 received a card.
Player SucribeMan received a card.
Player SucribeMan received a card.
Player SSNNAAKKEE received a card.
Player SSNNAAKKEE received a card.
Player pokerprofit.net received a card.
Player pokerprofit.net received a card.
Player peepgamemf received a card.
Player peepgamemf received a card.
Player stockmanaz received a card.
Player stockmanaz received a card.
Player bedard310 folds
Player bigred58 raises (1400)
Player SucribeMan folds
Player SSNNAAKKEE folds
Player pokerprofit.net folds
Player peepgamemf folds
Player stockmanaz folds
Hero calls (1050)
Player IAlwaysWyn81 folds
 
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t1riel

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I'm a little suspicious of the minraise but I would reraise the flop.
 
Rldetheflop

Rldetheflop

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I'm not a fan of turning this into a huge pot with qq in this spot he's not folding, his stats scream clown so perhaps you are good but I'm flatting here also
 
akmost

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Those situations where his range screams for something like AJ+ , JJ+. I would flat and proceed with cautious if the board has an overcard. No need for creating pre a big pot against that type of players and most important is that he has also a monster stack.

Near bubble we don't need such confrontation with a player who maybe doesn't understand the pre bubble dynamics.
 
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021poker

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I would never flat my QQs, OPP in this deep stack tournament. Your main goal is to stack up with your good holdings, specifically against the V, which has a fish tendency!!!

I would definitely 3-bet him pre to 5K!
 
A

AviCKter

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The heading says it all. "Too much reliance on HUD".

40BB effective, Proceed with caution? What?!! Even against a tight range {99+, AKs) you're a 55:45 favorite. Or Do you expect him to limp 99 preflop? Taking your line, I can't see the game plan. Were you check-folding/check-calling if an A or K flopped? What was the plan there?

Near the bubble and the bubble are two different beasts (not the same).
 
Rldetheflop

Rldetheflop

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If you are not going to use the HUD stats then why use the program so yes I'm relying on the stats and yes I would expect that villain to limp 99 with a much tighter raising range
 
M

Mahsa dMo

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Don't give the fish the credit he doesn't deserve. Reraise for value and if he 4bets, then give him credit. You are waaaay too deep to play QQ passively.
 
P

peeetiee

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Hy !
I didn´t get the whole hand(when and why did U fold?), but according to poker school QQ is a monster hand. So U can and shall play it quite aggressive. Normally 3 or 4 BB OR, but how near is the bubble?
BUT : U are soooo deep, as I read about 90 BB, U cover him double, so at least call to see the flop, so the pot won´t get too big in order not to cause an ai.
But imo 3 BB raise is a bet that creates value in this situation. If U get a reraise U can consider a fold if U think he´s got AA or KK, otherwise U are in front. So why fold QQ pre flop with your stack?
By !
 
akmost

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peeetiee Our Hero sits on the SB with 62079 chips , Villain [bigred58 (28224)]. So Villain open raised from EP and Hero flatted with his QQ out of position.

We don't know the outcome yet because the thread creator did't post it! :) Maybe he will post in the near future maybe not. The matter here is to comment and assess the situation based on the current information!
 
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awesome

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Wow. a lot of different views here.

I flatted bc a player that forks his range like this is extremely nutted. I'm not a big believer in the 3b to see where I'm at philosophy. Why turn a hand as good as QQ into a bluff.

Against a 3% raising range (JJ+, AK, and AQs) we have 48% equity. Near the bubble this is potentially tighter.

Here's the flop and action

*** FLOP ***: [Jd 10s 10d]
Player HERO checks
Player VILLAIN bets (1044)

Ugh. The only hand (JJ) we had beat pre-flop just pulled ahead. Obviouly this sizing could be AK or AQ with a broadway draw but I called.

Player HERO calls (1044)
*** TURN ***: [Jd 10s 10d] [Ah]
Player HERO checks
Player VILLAIN bets (1566)

double ugh.

Any views?

Bet sizing means we probably should call.
 
A

awesome

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V's cbet freq is 100%, turn 40%, river 60%.
 
A

awesome

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I called w my gutshot broadway draw and 2 outs to the FH.

Player HERO calls (1566)

I hit my broadway draw on the river. In retrospect, I should bet fold this river given the range of hands I put V on.

*** RIVER ***: [Jd 10s 10d Ah] [Kh]
Player HERO checks
Player VILLAIN bets (2349)

I obviously called. No sense in raising bc I can't get called by worse. Maybe AK w two pair but no.

I called.

Player HERO calls (2349)
------ Summary ------
Pot: 14093
Board: [Jd 10s 10d Ah Kh]
Player peepgamemf does not show cards.Bets: 75. Collects: 0. Loses: 75.
Player stockmanaz does not show cards.Bets: 75. Collects: 0. Loses: 75.
*Player HERO shows: Straight to A [Qd Qh]. Bets: 6434. Collects: 7046. Wins: 612.
Player IAlwaysWyn81 does not show cards.Bets: 775. Collects: 0. Loses: 775.
Player bedard310 does not show cards.Bets: 75. Collects: 0. Loses: 75.
*Player VILLAIN shows: Straight to A [Qc Ac]. Bets: 6434. Collects: 7047. Wins: 613.
Player SucribeMan does not show cards.Bets: 75. Collects: 0. Loses: 75.
Player SSNNAAKKEE does not show cards.Bets: 75. Collects: 0. Loses: 75.
Player pokerprofit.net does not show cards.Bets: 75. Collects: 0. Loses: 75.
Game ended at: 2017/6/3 12:49:15

V was at the bottom of his 3% raising range. with AQs. A 3% range typically does not include AQo so I think our HUD stats actually were correct.

Despite the way it played out, I think our initial assessment was correct.

The problem with a 3b pre is that it focuses on a narrow part of V's preflop range.

The mistake I made was not raising the flop for value. I need to be more aggressive here in this spot. It'd be pretty gross if I get raised but it's a fold at that point and V will have a narrow 4b range on this type of flop.
 
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