If I'm understanding this correctly, we have 20bb preflop? (45,700)
Preflop: so first of all, facing an UTG raising range I'm not getting involved with KhQh even on the button (mostly due to stack sizes). his opening range crushes us as it contains plenty of AK/AQ and 99+ hands. we're flipping with his range at best and frequently crushed. and we're not deep enough to realize any implied odds from making a strong hand like a flush....
if I'm the BB I will call with this hand getting a good price and closing the action.
Flop: anyways....we obviously love the flop. We'll be happy to call it off at any point even though there is a good chance villain has AK, but there's only 4 combos of AK vs the rest of his range, so we can't ever really fold.
I think checking the flop for deception is good here. if there were a draw (like KKJ or 2 diamonds or something) and he checked to me, I'd bet smallish. but right now we are either way ahead or way behind. No need to let a hand like JJ or QQ off the hook so easily. and if he has AK we're going to pay him off at some point anyways so the real value in checking it back is to get value out of pocket pairs. (of which he has far more combos now, given his EP raising range).
Turn: His turn bet is only 38% of the pot and is consistent with having a weakish hand like QQ,TT,99. I think if we raise the turn we only get called when we're beat so flatting the turn seems best.
River: pot contains 23,334 and we've got 35,200 left behind. that's a 36% pot bet and consistent with his pocket/pairs and blocking bet type hands. It seems to me like a real powerhouse like AK, KJ or JJ would bet bigger figuring you either have a K or you don't and so you'll either call a bet or you won't. (obviously I'm wrong here). At a minimum you must call. but your question (which is a good one) is whether you should raise or flat. My instinct says it seems like you should raise because your hand is underrepped....try and induce the hero call from hands like QQ or AA. But let's try to be more logical than instincts since we're away from the table an have the ability to over analyze the hell outta this spot!
Combinatorics:
let's assign him a reasonable preflop EP raising range that might get to the river here, and then see how we're doing against it.
AK- 4 combos
AQ- 12 combos but unlikely to get to the river like this, maybe assign 1 combo as a weird
bluff
KQ- 2 combos
KJ- 3 combos but also maybe not in his EP raising range, so assign 1 combo
KT-4 combos but only assign 1 combo for same reasons as KJ
AA- 6 combos
QQ- 3 combos (we hold a blocker)
JJ- 3 combos
TT- 6 combos
99- 6 combos
66- 3 combos but also maybe not in his EP raising range so only assign 1 combo.
and to round it out let's add 2 combos of random bluffs or other smaller pocket pairs that might play this way.
so we're at a total of 36 combos of which we are beating or chopping 27 combos. So this clearly a +EV call at least.
But, your question was "Is raising better?" which of those above combos will call a raise if we raise? I'm just doing some guesswork here, but pretty much ALL the hands that beat you will call....so AK,KJ,JJ,66 (11 combos). I think it's safe to say that any K might call but we only beat or chop with the 3 combined combos of KQ,KT. so the whole crux of this relies on whether or not the pocket pairs will call. I think the bigger pairs like AA and QQ are much more likely to call than TT or 99. so there are potentially 9 combos of QQ/AA that will call plus the 1 combo of KT
so we're up to 10 combos that we are beating when they call and 11 combos that we are losing to when they call and 2 combos that we are tying with when they call. Or basically, it's a totally breakeven spot. if we think he'll "hero" call wider like with TT it's maybe a little better to raise and if we think he'll find a fold with QQ or AA sometimes then it's a worse raise.
Stack Management:
Now, lets look at the impact of both decisions on our stack:
If we flat and win our stack is now 67,600 (28bb)
if we flat and lose our stack is now 27,300 (11bb)
if we push and lose we're out of the tourney
if we push and win our stack is 95,000 (40bb).
For me, I'm pretty good at grinding an 11bb stack. the difference in playability for me between a 28bb stack and a 40bb stack is not a massive difference but since I'm proficient at short stack poker, the difference between 11bb and 0bb is a massive difference in my
equity in the tournament.
Summary:
In all...I think in a cash game we have to be willing to value bet pretty thin but in a tourney this spot is probably thin enough that while it feels nitty...it's ok to just call since it's hard to get called by a lot of worse hands and at all times we must think about this impact on our stack since we cannot just buy more chips.
