$3 NLHE MTT: Interesting spot with AJs on bb against UTG open raiser and BTN flat call

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021poker

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$3 NLHE MTT: Interesting spot with AJs on bb against UTG open raiser and BTN flat call

Final 3 tables-23 left average stack: 64K

NL Holdem 1500-3000-250ante
MP ($31080)
HJ ($50289)
CO ($68494)
Villain 2 ($44679) (37.5/25.0)
SB ($86022)
HERO ($60830)
Villain 1 ($54858) (22.5/19.7)

Dealt to Hero :ah4::jh4:

UTG Raises To $7600 (Rem. Stack: 46958), MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $7600 (Rem. Stack: 36779), SB Folds, HERO?

What would you do here?
 
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BluffYou123

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Shove > Call > Fold imo

I'm only worried about the initial raiser here and I think we have him beat some of the time, flips a fair bit of the time and dominated sometimes too. So much dead money in the middle so I'd go for the shove.
 
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Yoo

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I will proly call but if you dont hit flop chips passed for free.A raise around 12-14k to see exactly were you stand.All in isnt a option here so if he reraise for sure is on good hand to.

Action to take depends very much on how that player played at table.From example i will only raise being UTG with a JJ+ pair not eve AK that is a bit infront of JJ i wont raise UTG position.AK will be for me only call to see how manny ppl will be in hand and to see a cheap flop if will be that case.

A good point here is that only 23 players left and until now 99% of bad players are out.

Conlusion call>fold remain in foot.
 
Andrew Popov

Andrew Popov

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We call, we look at the flop, then we decide. Why complicate decisions?
 
akmost

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AJs is one of the tricky hands for me , we cannot overlook the UTG raise although the opponent seems overactive[37.5/25] because if he open raised with an A here most probably he had us dominated. I would complete from the BB.

Furthermore the limp could easily be a trap from the Villain 2. To sum up against two opponents AJs with 23bbs it is not a 3bet-shove for me. We will find better spots than that to apply pre flop pressure!
 
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Final 3 tables-23 left average stack: 64K

NL Holdem 1500-3000-250ante
MP ($31080)
HJ ($50289)
CO ($68494)
Villain 2 ($44679) (37.5/25.0)
SB ($86022)
HERO ($60830)
Villain 1 ($54858) (22.5/19.7)

Dealt to Hero :ah4::jh4:

UTG Raises To $7600 (Rem. Stack: 46958), MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $7600 (Rem. Stack: 36779), SB Folds, HERO?

What would you do here?

Hmmmm. Really sticky spot. If we shove and he calls we are probably crushed. He gets ok pot odds if we shove too.
We will get a 2 SPR if we call and if we don't hit on flop we should fold which sucks
I guess call or fold.
 
mbrenneman0

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Id check to see if i have any notes on him. if you have notes on him that he opens 2.5x with less than 20bb often or if youve seen him open shove QQ+ then shove.

if he open shoves more often with less than 20bb than he opens to 2.5x then hes probably strong.

without information though Im shoving here.
 
MoryMorte

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Id check to see if i have any notes on him. if you have notes on him that he opens 2.5x with less than 20bb often or if youve seen him open shove QQ+ then shove.



if he open shoves more often with less than 20bb than he opens to 2.5x then hes probably strong.



without information though Im shoving here.



What part of his range we are beating here?
We are flipping with most of it, behind against some and crushed the rest.
Are you shoving as value or bluff?
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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What part of his range we are beating here?
We are flipping with most of it, behind against some and crushed the rest.
Are you shoving as value or bluff?

semi bluff, we'd be riding on the fold equity to make it profitable, but we also have good pot equity flipping against most of his range when he does call. should have reread the hand before replying again, but theres so much money in the middle that even the small percentage of times he folds becomes really profitable imo, theres already 22,600 in the middle, we only need folds a very small percentage of the time to make this profitable. and i think most villains at these stakes are either going to make one of two mistakes here: folding way too often or calling way too wide

i guess it also depends on the pay structure too, but i think as long as there arent significant ICM considerations then a 3bet shove will be profitable most of the time
 
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021poker

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We call, we look at the flop, then we decide. Why complicate decisions?
Obviously, calling with 23bb on the bb and see the flop is a standard play. However considering 22600 dead money already in the pot, I believe it is the spot that you may want to take it down pre by shoving. I just want to know different perspectives of the players at this particular spot
 
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021poker

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Hmmmm. Really sticky spot. If we shove and he calls we are probably crushed. He gets ok pot odds if we shove too.
We will get a 2 SPR if we call and if we don't hit on flop we should fold which sucks
I guess call or fold.
I do not think so folding is an option bc AJs on the bb is too good to fold considering getting more than 1:6vpot odds. The thing is that once you shove against the players that you cover them, the pot odds does not really play a role that much. I believe it is more based on the fold equity rather than getting right pot odds.

Definitely, Calling is a standard option but depends on the player it may change to shove (considering fold equity, profitability based on the dead money in the pot)
 
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021poker

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What part of his range we are beating here?
We are flipping with most of it, behind against some and crushed the rest.
Are you shoving as value or bluff?
I just ran it in poker stove. Interestingly, we have 50.6% equity against 88+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+
 
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021poker

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Id check to see if i have any notes on him. if you have notes on him that he opens 2.5x with less than 20bb often or if youve seen him open shove QQ+ then shove.

if he open shoves more often with less than 20bb than he opens to 2.5x then hes probably strong.

without information though Im shoving here.
I just reviewed UTG's stats on EP based on 16 hands and I got (31.3 31.3). He opened shoves twice with 10 bb with A8o and 1010. What is your opinion about his stats?
 
Andrew Popov

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Obviously, calling with 23bb on the bb and see the flop is a standard play. However considering 22600 dead money already in the pot, I believe it is the spot that you may want to take it down pre by shoving. I just want to know different perspectives of the players at this particular spot

I'm worried that you can leave the tournament just because you chased 2200 dead money. Judging by the size of the blinds, you have advanced far enough in the tournament. Do you need to risk pre-flop almost on your entire stack? :rolleyes:
 
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021poker

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This is a very good point! this is the reason why I post this thread. I think
mbrenneman0 mentioned a very good point above that I believe would be a good answer to your question.

"I guess it depends on the pay structure too, but I think as long as there aren't significant ICM considerations then a 3bet shove will be profitable most of the time"
 
akmost

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I just ran it in poker stove. Interestingly, we have 50.6% equity against 88+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+

How can we get 50.6% against 2 villains here with AhJh? At best case scenario if we push we have approximately 35%. The player on the button is still in and we don't flip only against the UTG player!
 
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awesome

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You are ahead of a 31% raising range but AJ SUITED plays too well post to turn into a bluff vs. a UTG raise. AJo is another story and sometimes needs to go into a 3b range.

I realize there's risk we stack off on an A J high board or that we fold the best hand but suited is the key here.
 
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awesome

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The other player in the hand gives your nut flush more value too.
 
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021poker

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How can we get 50.6% against 2 villains here with AhJh? At best case scenario if we push we have approximately 35%. The player on the button is still in and we don't flip only against the UTG player!
Yes, you are right. I just calculated the equity against UTG assuming the V2 seems overactive according to his stats (37.5,25) and his range is not strong as UTG and he would probably fold if we push our range.

Technically, we have 30 % equity against UTG with the range of 77+, A9s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo, and BTN with the range of 77+,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo.
 
No1eJoker

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Call and see the flop, if you hit the flop play aggressive, if you miss flop then fold.
 
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To me definitely call, because we are so good implicit odds in the case of that we connect strong post-flop

Regards!
 
mbrenneman0

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okay guys, I was going to write a long post, but decided it would be better as a video because it would be a lot of writing. sorry its a little dry, but here's how to calculate the EV of a shove here:

https://youtu.be/MZcRFpO1SVc
 
MoryMorte

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okay guys, I was going to write a long post, but decided it would be better as a video because it would be a lot of writing. sorry its a little dry, but here's how to calculate the EV of a shove here:



https://youtu.be/MZcRFpO1SVc



Thank you very much. 021Poker and I talked more than hour about this hand. By watching this video, I realized we were on the right track.
We did not calculate EV but by comparing opening and calling ranges of open raiser, we decided that it was a close spot but we thought we should fold. Now by watching the video, I learned that we need to look into expected EV more often off the table.
Really appreciate it [emoji1374][emoji1374]
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Thank you very much. 021Poker and I talked more than hour about this hand. By watching this video, I realized we were on the right track.
We did not calculate EV but by comparing opening and calling ranges of open raiser, we decided that it was a close spot but we thought we should fold. Now by watching the video, I learned that we need to look into expected EV more often off the table.
Really appreciate it [emoji1374][emoji1374]

No problem, of course now that we have the EV for the shove, we need to compare it to the EV of a call. I think a call will be really close, but I want to get a program for making EV decision trees that I think should be really helpful to evaluate something more complex like that. Its just that software is really expensive, If i get it, ill be sure to make a video with it. But without doing the evaluation, my intuition is that the EV of a call is going to be really close to break even

I hope everything in the video made sense

oh and would super appreciate clicking the thumbs up on the youtube video to help it get more exposure
 
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