$3 NLHE MTT: Interesting ICM spot w QQ w 17bb and ITM

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/16/2

Villain has a huge chip lead and shown a willingness to call all ins. V has 5x everyone else at the table, including H. V's PFR is 16%.

Payouts are 25, 15, 10, 7 and 5.

ICMIZER says that a shove is +$EV but is a call better here? Especially bc I'm in position?

Game started at: 2016/12/20 19:38:2
Game ID: 802839680 125/250 $3 Holdem Turbo - On Demand, Table 2 (Hold'em)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: steddyowl (3933).
Seat 2: HERO (3435).
Seat 3: naH_Tepa (2826).
Seat 5: brad120g (2387).
Seat 6: Blooodz10 (20419).
Player naH_Tepa ante (30)
Player brad120g ante (30)
Player Blooodz10 ante (30)
Player steddyowl ante (30)
Player HERO ante (30)
Player naH_Tepa has small blind (125)
Player brad120g has big blind (250)
Player HERO received card: [Qh]
Player HERO received card: [Qc]
Player Blooodz10 raises (500)
Player steddyowl folds

I shove. Flatting here is a much higher variance route compared to jamming and I doubt we induce light squeezes from stacks behind. The fact that villain is showing willingness to call allins light makes this even more of a jam.

Shove is the correct decision. You've got very nice hand against a cheap leader, who is willing to call. The chance to win this hand is huge and you will secure a nice stack considering the other players, which could guaranty you a Top 3 spot regarding the way the chip leader is playing.

trent32la said:

The fact that villain is showing willingness to call allins light makes this even more of a jam.

Click to expand...

+1, getting your stack in with QQ in this spot is +EV all day.

If you're sure he will call you should definitely shove here!

Shove and hold... shove and hold.... HOLD!!!

nice double or you are out.... either way it's the correct play.

stoke

no just shove. if an ace or king comes on the flop your hand wont be that strong also you dont have a big stack so you need to double as soon as possible and this is a good spot to risk your entire stack.

stokedog4 said:

Shove and hold... shove and hold.... HOLD!!!

nice double or you are out.... either way it's the correct play.

stoke

Click to expand...

LOL ^^^^ dis is true

You cannot only call ,with this small stack you've got , the position (some more to call after you) , and the initial raiser as well who has a very big stack and logically plays a wider range of cards (and as you say he calls all ins , maybe he plays more aggressive) , you can only shove QQ , or else you lose the blindsx2 and the chance to double your stack , so the shove is +$EV

Ultimately I jammed but I still think a flat call is OK for a safe flop and jam then when we have the equity edge. Unfortunately by jamming, Villain gets to see all 5 cards and realize his equity even at 30%.

I bubbled. Results oriented but pocket pairs have the edge on the flop. Maybe I play a K high flop poorly but that is a risk I am willing to take.

Player steddyowl folds
Player HERO allin (3405)
Player naH_Tepa folds
Player brad120g folds
Player Blooodz10 calls (2905)
*** FLOP ***: [Ah Kh 2d]
*** TURN ***: [Ah Kh 2d] 3♠
*** RIVER ***: [Ah Kh 2d 3s] <font color='red'>K<font face="arial">♦</font></font>
------ Summary ------
Pot: 7335
Board: [Ah Kh 2d 3s Kd]
Player steddyowl does not show cards.Bets: 30. Collects: 0. Loses: 30.
Player HERO shows: Two pairs. Ks and Qs [Qh Qc]. Bets: 3435. Collects: 0. Loses: 3435.
Player naH_Tepa does not show cards.Bets: 155. Collects: 0. Loses: 155.
Player brad120g does not show cards.Bets: 280. Collects: 0. Loses: 280.
*Player Blooodz10 shows: Two pairs. As and Ks [Js As]. Bets: 3435. Collects: 7335. Wins: 3900.
Game ended at: 2016/12/20 19:38:48