$3 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: What do you think of this push ?

888 Poker - 250/500 Ante 60 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 14.82 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, hands: 4)
BB: 7.28 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: 21.62 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG+1: 9.88 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP: 23.63 BB
MP+1: 47.16 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
CO: 13.77 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
Hero (BTN): 20.29 BB

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has A:diamond: Q:diamond:

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 1 BB, CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 20.17 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG calls 19.17 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (44.8 BB, 2 players) A:club: 4:heart: 6:diamond:

Turn: (44.8 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:

River: (44.8 BB, 2 players) 8:club:

I'm actually not a fan of the push here. No one is really showing strength preflop so a 4BB bet here would still probably get the folds and UTG to call, but without risking so much before knowing exactly what you're dealing with. If you were closer to 10BB then yes that's a good shove, but with 20BB you can just play aggressive and then you won't be putting your tournament life on the line in case someone hits a straight/has a pair and you miss everything. But all that being said, it's not like it's a bad move either, just maybe a little too much unneeded risk more precisely.

If your opponents fold, you win 3.5BB. You have a very good hand. You would like to win more than this. Of course you could also lose, but if you raise 2.5 BB and get calls, you are probably ahead. There is no poker without risk.

If they call and you lose, you lose everything.

What kinds of hands are sensible players calling this all-in raise with?

AA, KK, maybe QQ, maybe JJ. AK, maybe AQ. You are behind every one of those hands except AQ. It would be a nice big pot if you get called and win, but you probably lose.

The limper's VPIP is high, so maybe he is not a sensible player. Maybe he will call with a weaker hand. But you only have 9 hands against him, so it's difficult to tell. And you also have the players in the blinds to worry about.

Shove if you want to decrease variance and feel you have a decent edge on the field because shoving is always +cEV.

If you want to increase variance and maximize EV, iso raise to 4bb.

Either play is fine.

trent32la said:

Shove if you . . .feel you have a decent edge on the field.

Click to expand...

trent, I'm missing something here.

Pre-flop edge?
His cards are clearly likely to be better than those of the high-VPIP limper and the two random hands in the blinds. Having a feel for things doesn't come into it.

Post-flop edge?
If he shoves, there is no play post-flop.