$3 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: AK on SB

No information on villain.

Was this the right play preflop oop and what line do you take on the turn?

No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds + t12 - 9 players

UTG+1: t9434 M = 36.57
UTG+2: t5177 M = 20.07
MP1: t3649 M = 14.14
MP2: t12730 M = 49.34
CO: t4804 M = 18.62
BTN: t3638 M = 14.10
SB: t4501 M = 17.45
Hero (BB): t7088 M = 27.47
UTG: t4053 M = 15.71

Pre Flop: (t258) Hero is BB with K A
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t225, 5 folds, Hero raises to t575, UTG+2 calls t350

Flop: (t1308) 4 T K (2 players)
Hero bets t815, UTG+2 calls t815

Turn: (t2938) Q (2 players)
Hero???

vox1er said:

No information on villain.

Was this the right play preflop oop and what line do you take on the turn?

No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds + t12 - 9 players

UTG+1: t9434 M = 36.57
UTG+2: t5177 M = 20.07
MP1: t3649 M = 14.14
MP2: t12730 M = 49.34
CO: t4804 M = 18.62
BTN: t3638 M = 14.10
SB: t4501 M = 17.45
Hero (BB): t7088 M = 27.47
UTG: t4053 M = 15.71

Pre Flop: (t258) Hero is BB with K

A

2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t225, 5 folds, Hero raises to t575, UTG+2 calls t350

Flop: (t1308) 4

T

K

(2 players)
Hero bets t815, UTG+2 calls t815

Turn: (t2938) Q

(2 players)
Hero???

Click to expand...

Ok, well – I’m guessing we lose this one…but…

This is a tough spot because we can fold to 50-60BB’s, if we have less than 40BB to start the hand, I would automatically say this is a clear stack-off. So, this is a tough spot – and whenever I see tough spots, I like math.

A standard +2 range should be about 14%, if villain is loosening things up a bit, we may be able to up to 19%. And, of course, that’s all assuming he’s not a donk that’s just picking hands to play.

So, 19%: 44+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KQo

Now, he opens, gets 3-bet and calls – which narrows his range, or should anyway. Hands like 44, should now be a fold as a call is greater than 10% effective.

So, his range becomes something like (6%): QQ-77, AQs-AJs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s

Keep in mind, the above ranges are in a vacuum – and you did say you have no information on villain, so I think that’s probably fine, but player reads can be a big factor – live poker, player ranges are way too wide, and they will never fold to a 3-bet from BB.

So, even though the turn card is just about the worst card we could see, we still have 62% equity here. We have his range at a total of 72 combo’s, and I think 39 can call or raise, meaning he folds 33, or 45% of the time.

Looking at the math as presented by the spreadsheet, we can profitably barrel turn. I’ve picked the hypothetical bet size of $2,100, which seems consistent with your flop sizing as well, and still leaves us 40BB back. But as you can see from the graph, the outcome doesn’t change much with a tolerance of 10% equity, or 10% villain fold percentage.

If we check turn, I’ve included another spreadsheet that shows +EV in a HU pot, which this is. Note the –EV multi-way is an anomaly in the spreadsheet and due to me assigning 0% equity multi-way. I just modified the spreadsheet to account for this situation – so, in other words, pay no attention to the multi-way –EV, it doesn’t apply here anyway.

So, the answer is, the standard Doug Polk, both are correct. Personally, I think I like the barrel this turn, but checking here, and turning your hand into a check/call (category 2) hand looks to be fine as well. So, I’d say villain specific. I’m assuming this is a fairly low-limit game, which means that villain almost certainly as a wider range than we’ve assigned – I say bet turn, $2,100 and go from there.

You do not have a blocker of heart, but the villain does not necessarily have to have a flush draw.

I would make stronger cbet, for to have spr of 1 on the turn, and push, if the villain has the flush draw, bad luck, tomorrow there will be another tournament to play.

gl

I would raise a bit bigger preflop, probably to 750. On the flop, its standard seems fine. I would check call the turn and depending on the river, I would lean towards check folding. There are a lot of hands he could have that bet the turn but check the river like QJ, KJ. And hands that don’t want to see a river heart. So calling on the turn seems like the best option. On the river, it would mostly be a bluff or a hand that beats you.

I would make the 3-bet a little bit bigger out of position. He is using an undersized open, as so many players do these days especially at tournaments, and against an undersized open I want to make it at least 4X, and I dont hate an even larger size either. People use these small sizes to give themselfes more room to get involved against a 3-bet, and I dont want to play into that game and give him great odds to play an easy pot against me with position.

This was obviously a very bad turn card for you, so I would check here and hope, he check back. If he make a substantial bet, I would probably hate life and fold, since there are so many hands, that beat you now, and you could be drawing dead. Neither the A or K of hearts is spoken for, which makes it rather easy for him to have a flush. AJ + J9 turned a straight, and a lot of hands, which he could also have, has two pair.

Turn X/C
River X/C if villain sizing 50% or less. Else fold.

I'm not a friend of the min 3bet OOP; 3bet larger (~800); shoving into his 20bb stack is fine too unless he has some really tight stats.
cbet is fine; check call turn and any non-heart river if he is not all-in