$3 NLHE MTT: $1000 GTD Late Stage Tough Spot

We were down to 3 tables (21 players) in a 250+ player tourney with a very top heavy payout structure and I was 11th in chips.

CO minraises. CO was 21% VPIP and 11% PFR but 20% PFR in the CO.

Hero has JJ on the BTN and 3b to call off.

SB flats my 3b and CO folds.

SB had been playing agro and loose VPIP at 33% and high 3b of 12%. He 3b a tight player w a PFR of 5% when he had A8s. Tight player had KK. SB jammed a 327 flop, no flush draw, into tight player and hit Ace on river.

Game started at: 2017/3/1 14:24:53
Game ID: 855515915 1500/3000 $1,000 GTD, Table 14 (Hold'em)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: HERO (76613).
Seat 3: Chuckly73 (115406).
Seat 4: Christeaux1 (125512).
Seat 5: Mooseslayer (155564).
Seat 6: stallkers (78481).
Seat 8: JRuberto (134006).
Seat 9: Altrum Altus (129290).
Player Chuckly73 ante (300)
Player Christeaux1 ante (300)
Player Mooseslayer ante (300)
Player stallkers ante (300)
Player JRuberto ante (300)
Player Altrum Altus ante (300)
Player HERO ante (300)
Player Chuckly73 has small blind (1500)
Player Christeaux1 has big blind (3000)
Player Chuckly73 received a card.
Player Chuckly73 received a card.
Player Christeaux1 received a card.
Player Christeaux1 received a card.
Player Mooseslayer received a card.
Player Mooseslayer received a card.
Player stallkers received a card.
Player stallkers received a card.
Player JRuberto received a card.
Player JRuberto received a card.
Player Altrum Altus received a card.
Player Altrum Altus received a card.
Player HERO received card: <font color='red'>J♥</font>
Player HERO received card: <font color='black'>J♣</font>
Player Mooseslayer folds
Player stallkers folds
Player JRuberto folds
Player Altrum Altus raises (6000)
Player HERO raises (15000)
Player Chuckly73 calls (13500)
Player Christeaux1 folds
Player Altrum Altus folds
*** FLOP ***: [10h 3c 10c]

Given villains range I am definitely cbetting this flop. The question is jam, 1/2 or 1/3rd? Against good players I bet a 1/3rd with this type of static board but against this villain I think I can get him to bluff off w any bet. Maybe check to get him to bluff later but obviously need to protect my equity a bit. Any views?

First off, I see the merit in 3-betting here, as you iso the cutoff range, play a bigger pot in position, but I generally prefer flatting the BU with my 99-JJ, to keep low SPR, get to play post flop more often in position where you overrealize your equity, don't get to fold your equity if the CO decides to 4-bet you, plus induces squeezes out of the blinds. Specially 3-bet happy boys like your guy.

Second, I think the SB range in these spots tend to be very specific if he's solid, 77+, AT+, KJs+ (though I personally prefer 4-betting-bluff AT+, KJs+, and given the info you gave, he probably likes it best too), and this board is actually great for his range so there's basically their entire range calling your not-jams c-bets here in this spot, specially since you block the AJ and KJ combos, which makes it more likely he has a mid pocket pair, which leads to this conclusion: a good portion of villain's range is frequently jamming to your c-bet in this board. So you probably get more value by not jamming and betting like 1/2-2/3 of the pot here/₢all jams or jamming turns. You also have position here so you'll overrealize your equity playing more post flop, than just straight up jamming the flop.

I'd bet 55% the flop and calling villains' jams, or jamming the turn on non-ace run outs if the villain just calls your c-bet.

I assume the pot is around 40k and you have 60k behind? Bet 1/3rd pot and call a shove. If you get flatted re-evaluate on the turn.

3B/inducing in this spot is fine.

- Ty for the advice and flatting preflop is a decent option to induce a squeeze from one of the blinds, which would also give me a free read on CO.
- Ultimately, I decided to bet half pot w a similar view that the Villain would shove a large percentage of his range. Interestingly the Villain called, which set off some warning bells. I've found that when agro players flat rather than jam, their range is more weighted to nutted hands.
- However, I still had the plan to go all-in on non-ace turns with only a half pot bet left in my stack

Here's the Flop action and Turn card:

Player Chuckly73 checks
Player HERO bets (20550)
Player Chuckly73 calls (20550)
*** TURN ***: [10h 3c 10c] [2h]
Player Chuckly73 bets (54800)

Would you call here?

I call as fast as I can.

awesome said:

Here's the Flop action and Turn card:

Player Chuckly73 checks
Player HERO bets (20550)
Player Chuckly73 calls (20550)
*** TURN ***: [10h 3c 10c] [2h]
Player Chuckly73 bets (54800)

Would you call here?

Click to expand...

Yes, his turn donk bet is virtually the same thing as jamming flop given the relatively blank turn. Very weird turn bet if you have AT, TT, 22, 33. I THINK we're comfortably ahead here as his action makes sense in relation to the range we put villain on.

awesome said:

- Ty for the advice and flatting preflop is a decent option to induce a squeeze from one of the blinds, which would also give me a free read on CO.

Click to expand...

It's not only that: JJ flat out plays really dicy against most of the microstakes 4-betting range and plays very marginally most of the flop run outs on 3-bet pots. I don't think I'm good enough to competently play marginal holdings on 3-bet pots post flop, you know? I don't think many people here can.

As I said: I see the merit of 3-betting here, SPECIALLY if there are passive fish in the blinds and you don't want to invite them, or against a CO with low Fold3b%. You really want to isolate the CO range. Otherwise, if the blinds are not that passive: why not play post flop with a hand that CRUSHES the CO open range, in position? Plus the added value of CRUSHING the blinds squeezing ranges?

Back to the hand: JJ is one of the top hands you can have in your range this spot and, when you are on the top of your range, heads up, you should definitely play for stacks.

Here's my combinatorics evaluation:
-Slow played AA-QQ. 18 combos * 33% = 6 combos. 2/3rd haircut bc unlikely agro opponent plays this way (why play agro if you are going to slow play monsters).
-Slow played 33. 4 combos.
-Slow played ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, and 9Ts. 10 combos
-Turned Full House w 22. 4 combos

Hands we beat:
44-99. 36 combos * 75% bc I think V would jam most of these on the flop.
Club flush draws: Ax, KQ, block QJ, 45, 56, 64. 15 combos *60% bc don't know if he gets to turn with these hands.
Heart flush draws: Ax, KQ, block QJ, 45, 56, 64. 15 combos *60% bc I think V would jam most of these on the flop.

Total Pot After Villains jam is 122,963 and we have 40,763 left in our stack. Are we good 33% of the time?

Based on combos above with no bluffing we have about 63-66% equity on a call.

This is a profitable +EV call.

Results:

Player HERO allin (40763)
Uncalled bet (14037) returned to Chuckly73
*** RIVER ***: [10h 3c 10c 2h] [7h]
------ Summary ------
Pot: 163726
Board: [10h 3c 10c 2h 7h]
Player HERO shows: Two pairs. Js and 10s [Jh Jc]. Bets: 76613. Collects: 0. Loses: 76613.
*Player Chuckly73 shows: Three Of Kind of 10s [10s As]. Bets: 76613. Collects: 163726. Wins: 87113.
Player Christeaux1 does not show cards.Bets: 3300. Collects: 0. Loses: 3300.
Player Mooseslayer does not show cards.Bets: 300. Collects: 0. Loses: 300.
Player stallkers does not show cards.Bets: 300. Collects: 0. Loses: 300.
Player JRuberto does not show cards.Bets: 300. Collects: 0. Loses: 300.
Player Altrum Altus does not show cards.Bets: 6300. Collects: 0. Loses: 6300.
Game ended at: 2017/3/1 14:25:48

awesome said:

Results:

Player HERO allin (40763)
Uncalled bet (14037) returned to Chuckly73
*** RIVER ***: [10h 3c 10c 2h] <font color='red'>7♥</font>
------ Summary ------
Pot: 163726
Board: [10h 3c 10c 2h 7h]
Player HERO shows: Two pairs. Js and 10s [Jh Jc]. Bets: 76613. Collects: 0. Loses: 76613.
*Player Chuckly73 shows: Three Of Kind of 10s [10s As]. Bets: 76613. Collects: 163726. Wins: 87113.
Player Christeaux1 does not show cards.Bets: 3300. Collects: 0. Loses: 3300.
Player Mooseslayer does not show cards.Bets: 300. Collects: 0. Loses: 300.
Player stallkers does not show cards.Bets: 300. Collects: 0. Loses: 300.
Player JRuberto does not show cards.Bets: 300. Collects: 0. Loses: 300.
Player Altrum Altus does not show cards.Bets: 6300. Collects: 0. Loses: 6300.
Game ended at: 2017/3/1 14:25:48

Click to expand...

Yeah, AT was part of the range we built for him. NH. You actually took better decisions than he did, in his shoes I think we should lean towards 4-betting/folding AT there. Calling 3bets in the SB with ATs as a default is just leakage.

awesome said:

Here's my combinatorics evaluation:
-Slow played AA-QQ. 18 combos * 33% = 6 combos. 2/3rd haircut bc unlikely agro opponent plays this way (why play agro if you are going to slow play monsters).
-Slow played 33. 4 combos.
-Slow played ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, and 9Ts. 10 combos
-Turned Full House w 22. 4 combos

Hands we beat:
44-99. 36 combos * 75% bc I think V would jam most of these on the flop.
Club flush draws: Ax, KQ, block QJ, 45, 56, 64. 15 combos *60% bc don't know if he gets to turn with these hands.
Heart flush draws: Ax, KQ, block QJ, 45, 56, 64. 15 combos *60% bc I think V would jam most of these on the flop.

Total Pot After Villains jam is 122,963 and we have 40,763 left in our stack. Are we good 33% of the time?

Based on combos above with no bluffing we have about 63-66% equity on a call.

This is a profitable +EV call.

Click to expand...

Nice analysis you put yourself.