$3.50 NLHE STT Turbo: 9-max, 1bb bubble spot

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824DOeNPn

not sure what to do here. ICM says fold but is it really better to blind away than push J9s now? i was assuming that it‘s likely to be heads-up vs the big stack, vs a range my hand performs not that bad against. if i fold it's likely i will be in a multiway with any 2.

I would have done the same. If you fold, then BB likely also fold and wait for you to get hit by the blinds. He have more chips than you, so you will enevitably be the first to be forced all in.

I think this is the right play.We have a huge ICM pressure and this play must be.I would like to see the screenshot from ICMIZER or any other programm to see the concept.

There are some reasons you should fold J9s. You're facing the opponents have the biggest stack and 3rd stack. That's means with your very short stack SB will call with any two and BB will mostly fold here. If you know ICM theory, you will understand with a short stack, each chip is will more worth than when you have a bigger stack. In your situation with the stack of BB, your push range has to be very tight, your hope is BB will be eliminated. Otherwise, you are taking your risk for nothing with a wide range push (if you hadn't did anything you would have already finished 4th place, your goal was finishing higher than 4th place)

This is very close but I agree with Daniel that folding is correct.

As Vovan says, software like ICMizer can give us the best result. We need to use future game simulation to account for getting blinded out shortly and the possibility that the current big blind busts before us.

Running this hand with FGS Depth 3, our range is top 26% which includes hands down to:

A4o
K9o
QTo
JTs
Q9s
K7s
A2s
44

J9s is -0.25% (percent of prizepool equity gain from shoving) and usually a fold here unless we have a particular read on our opponents.

Thanks for the replies!

Thanks guys that helped! Really tricky spot..

I would have done the same.

If BB has 730 'after' they've posted, and you fold... I'm pretty sure they're folding (unless they don't have a clue).. which would mean "I'm shoving here"