$3.50 NLHE MTT: 27 man SNG: Ducks on the Button

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/16/2.2

pokerstars Game #62588372839: Tournament #398361855, $3.11+$0.39 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2011/05/26 20:25:47 WET [2011/05/26 15:25:47 ET]
Table '398361855 3' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: rattelband (3570 in chips)
Seat 2: Balaguer22 (9764 in chips)
Seat 6: ben-rhyno (9273 in chips)
Seat 8: Guzzel61 (10720 in chips)
Seat 9: jojoduda (7173 in chips)
rattelband: posts the ante 25
Balaguer22: posts the ante 25
ben-rhyno: posts the ante 25
Guzzel61: posts the ante 25
jojoduda: posts the ante 25
Guzzel61: posts small blind 150
jojoduda: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ben-rhyno [2h][2s]
rattelband: folds
Balaguer22: folds
ben-rhyno: ?????

SB is 22/16 AF 8.5 3b 8%
BB is 25/16 AF 2.2 3b 4%
Have 80-100 hands on both.

~30BB's and a comfortable stack, not too sure on the right move here, so 2 options:

a) raise to 750
b) fold

One more thing, this is not a turbo and blinds just went up.

Option 3

Limp/Stab flops.

5 left mean we are in the $ in the 27´s, right?.

If we raise to 750 and get call, all the time board will come with bigger cards, a lot of times blinds will be calling with those stacks and stats.

Lot of time that don´t play a 27 and a regular, unless have some rounds already with 5 left and see blinds folding before think i fold most of the time here, but also could raise just to see if blinds going to fold or not for future reference (wich could help if get a monster later).

I don´t know, will like to know also the correct play.

I'm folding 22 here not wanting to flip here or be dominated, betting pre is fine just sucks when you get reraised or jammed on.

Tbh I'm leaning toward a fold as I don't think the blinds are folding that often to a raise and we don't need to play the hand.

Min-raise!

I definetly think folding is far to weak here. I'm not limping here either, what if someone shoves, you never know if they are just trying to push you out. If you are shoved on then you can let it go, but shouldn't this be the exact time to start applying pressure anyway with a much wider range of hands?

I'd just do you standard 3x raise.

If you're pretty confident that at least one of the blinds will play back at you, you might as well fold imo.

BigThingWithHolesInIt said:

If you're pretty confident that at least one of the blinds will play back at you, you might as well fold imo.

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This is what I was thinking about and why I posted the hand.

Can shove profitably here IMO but it's really marginal, I minraise. So what if we lose 600 chips if they reshove; we set up a really nice image for ourselves where if we get a half decent half in LP in the next like 3 orbits they'll remember and shove lighter.

Then there's the chance you'll take it down pre, or with a small c-bet (~40% pot)

ben_rhyno said:

This is what I was thinking about and why I posted the hand.

Click to expand...

That's ideal if someone plays back at you light though.

It's not though as we are only a slight favourite vs ATC and crushed by 12 higher pairs.

22 is pretty awful and 88% of the time your gonna be c-betting when your probably behind. However I remember a post Bwammo posted a few months ago:

The reason why we want MORE action with our weaker hands...is we don't really care at all about the pot preflop. A whole 1.5xBB pickup, wooh, we barely even notice the chips being added to our stack. But...if we can get action from even the worst hands our opponents have, like say 60%+ of the possible holdings...they are going into the flop with the same crappy types of hands we're raising with, except they do not have position and, hopefully, do not have the same postflop ability as us.

Click to expand...

So on this basis i'd probably raise 2.2x. If people start playing back more or calling light it means their hand is weaker which is good for us (as they'll be playing a weak hand OOP). C-bet most flops or do a delayed c-bet if I think they'll play back on the flop.

ben_rhyno said:

It's not though as we are only a slight favourite vs ATC and crushed by 12 higher pairs.

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I think you still have to raise your button with 2'2s at 6max, I mean how low would you go as to folding with what sort of pairs?

I'm not very good at interpreting HUD stats (I play turbo STTs almost exclusively now), but these guys would qualify as LAGs, no?
So if we're called, there is a large chance they'll donk the flop, and we'd usually have to fold, which isn't good for our image either...

Not really a large chance, most people still miss the flops the majority of the time.

Besides which, we are still in position if it's checked/bet to us. We can decide then if you think he's trying to take a stab at the pot or not.

jbbb said:

22 is pretty awful and 88% of the time your gonna be c-betting when your probably behind. However I remember a post Bwammo posted a few months ago

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88% of the time? Seems unlikely seeing as we have a pair and they only hit 33% of the time

Players in blinds are still fairly deep... I probably raise to 700 but a hand like this one, you'd probably have much better idea seeing as you're the one who's been playing these guys (ie. how often are they defending, how often are they folding to a c-bet, what's our image, etc.)

rounder22 said:

I'm folding 22 here not wanting to flip here or be dominated, betting pre is fine just sucks when you get reraised or jammed on.

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but they're like 24 & 36bb's deep? we're nowhere near committed if they play back at us.

Pascal LeFiscal said:

88% of the time? Seems unlikely seeing as we have a pair and they only hit 33% of the time

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What i'm saying 88% of the time you'll miss your set and you'll be c-betting in hope they missed too. Flop comes three overs you can't say if they hit or not.

That doesn't mean you are probably behind, it means you are ahead 66% of the time?

Depends on the flop because some flops will hit their range harder than others.

And a lot of LAG players don't need to hit a flop to donk into us when they suspect we're on a steal.

Pascal LeFiscal said:

That doesn't mean you are probably behind, it means you are ahead 66% of the time?

Click to expand...

Still won't know if we're ahead or not

jbbb said:

Still won't know if we're ahead or not

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course we won't know if we are ahead or not, what we do know though is that 66% of the time we "are" ahead. Therefore, it's profitable I guess is what he is saying.

jbbb said:

Still won't know if we're ahead or not

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Well if you've got something which tells you when you are ahead or behind can I have it please?