$3.40 NLHE STT: rivered 2nd nuts on the bubble vs. monster stack

Rldetheflop

Rldetheflop

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$3.40 NL HE STT: rivered 2nd nuts on the bubble vs. monster stack

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 45/24/55

villain had a big stack and was throwing it around pretty regularly. I wont post the results but I think you guys will pretty much decipher what happened. I guess the only real question is can i really fold here?

poker stars $3.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds + t25 - 4 players - View hand 934189
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): t2443 M = 6.11
CO: t10947 M = 27.37
BTN: t895 M = 2.24
SB: t715 M = 1.79

Pre Flop: (t400) Hero is BB with A 9
CO calls t200, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: (t600) T 7 K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (t600) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (t600) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t400, CO raises to t10722 all in, Hero???


I thought about checking the river but I think one of my leaks is not value betting enough.
 
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pat3392

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 45/24/55

villain had a big stack and was throwing it around pretty regularly. I wont post the results but I think you guys will pretty much decipher what happened. I guess the only real question is can i really fold here?

Poker Stars $3.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds + t25 - 4 players - View hand 934189
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): t2443 M = 6.11
CO: t10947 M = 27.37
BTN: t895 M = 2.24
SB: t715 M = 1.79

Pre Flop: (t400) Hero is BB with A 9
CO calls t200, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: (t600) T 7 K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (t600) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (t600) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t400, CO raises to t10722 all in, Hero???


I thought about checking the river but I think one of my leaks is not value betting enough.

Hmm interesting hand. It's a real gross spot throughout, because of the 2 short stakes.

Ok, bare with me hear, writing as thinking. You could shove pre since you would be ahead here but it would be gross to be called, he'd have to fold a bit for it to be good which by the description, isn't probably so. You could have fired the turn; that may have been better. He'd let you know if he has a piece of that and makes it less likely for him to bluff you of the best hand on the river. I don't like that line, puts us in tricky spots and I'd prefer to call a small river bet.

Ok, probably just went through the obvious there but anyway. I don't like your river bet size; what will he call you with? It's going to force out the A/7/6 probably 8 as well. Only a K/T/set/straight/PP will give you action. I think we can rule out the set; who checks the flop/turn on a board like that? And surely he'd raise 88 pre? I think if you're going to bet you need to either go small (200) so smaller hands will call you or bigger so you get more value(600). Does that make sense? 400 is going to have the same range of cards playing back at you(well almost), so betting that make much accomplishes the same as going 600; if you concerned with being out-played or busting go 200 since a lot of hands will call.


When he pushes the river you're getting 1.5:1, so you need to win 40% to be break even chips wise. The thing is, I can't see what villain would have here. The way you wrote the question implied he had J9. I'm not sure if you can fold because of that 1 hand; he's going to do this play with any 9.

I think this also depends on the 2 short stakes. Are they going to blind of trying to out last each other? If you fold this now what are you going to do? Are you going to fold and let the 2 shorites bust? Then you'd have about 4M. I guess it depends on if you think you can steal the blinds a bit when ITM. If you think it will be hard to recover when ITM I'd call. Really, I'd call this hand regardless but I'm not experienced in bubble play.
 
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WiZZiM

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Shoving this pre would be a pretty big mistake. Two short stacks present, and the big stack isn't the guy we want to mess with. We're shoving a very tight range here, something like AJ+ 88+ would be the absolute widest range i'd be shoving here i'd say.

As for the river, i'd prefer something over a half pot bet, anything under 400 really, a 395 bet looks a lot smaller to a bad player than a 400 bet does. And once he shoves there's only one hand that beats us, and i'm never folding, regardless of the bubble. We want to get ITM, sure. But we're also there to win, folding this would be a pretty big mistake since there are a lot of slowplayed pair/two pair hands, and probably heaps of bluffs in his range. As i said, only one hand beats us, and if he has it, he has it, we would be giving up too much equity here if we just folded.

However i would have probably stabbed at the flop or turn normally, after a guy checks i'll usually bet out, it's usually a profitable play, but against an aggressive type, checking may be the best option.
 
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pat3392

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Shoving this pre would be a pretty big mistake. Two short stacks present, and the big stack isn't the guy we want to mess with. We're shoving a very tight range here, something like AJ+ 88+ would be the absolute widest range i'd be shoving here i'd say.

As for the river, i'd prefer something over a half pot bet, anything under 400 really, a 395 bet looks a lot smaller to a bad player than a 400 bet does. And once he shoves there's only one hand that beats us, and i'm never folding, regardless of the bubble. We want to get ITM, sure. But we're also there to win, folding this would be a pretty big mistake since there are a lot of slowplayed pair/two pair hands, and probably heaps of bluffs in his range. As i said, only one hand beats us, and if he has it, he has it, we would be giving up too much equity here if we just folded.

However i would have probably stabbed at the flop or turn normally, after a guy checks i'll usually bet out, it's usually a profitable play, but against an aggressive type, checking may be the best option.

I really don't like the 400 bet though; I think if he's going to bet to the point where A high/low pockets/low pairs are going to fold he should go for more value; I reckon 400 will get around the same calls as 600
 
Rldetheflop

Rldetheflop

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Shoving this pre would be a pretty big mistake. Two short stacks present, and the big stack isn't the guy we want to mess with. We're shoving a very tight range here, something like AJ+ 88+ would be the absolute widest range i'd be shoving here i'd say.

As for the river, i'd prefer something over a half pot bet, anything under 400 really, a 395 bet looks a lot smaller to a bad player than a 400 bet does. And once he shoves there's only one hand that beats us, and i'm never folding, regardless of the bubble. We want to get ITM, sure. But we're also there to win, folding this would be a pretty big mistake since there are a lot of slowplayed pair/two pair hands, and probably heaps of bluffs in his range. As i said, only one hand beats us, and if he has it, he has it, we would be giving up too much equity here if we just folded.

However i would have probably stabbed at the flop or turn normally, after a guy checks i'll usually bet out, it's usually a profitable play, but against an aggressive type, checking may be the best option.

yea I wasnt shoving pre here just didnt make sense with the table dynamics the way they are. As far as leading out the flop I thought the board looked like a good flop for hands he would limp with. I thought about betting the draw on the turn but he was calling down with nothing so I figured hope for a freebie and hit. Then with the river popped off I considered checking hoping to induce a bet but thought this would be a good chance to work on my value betting. Normally I think I would have bet a little less but I have seen him call river bets a couple times with Q high.

as soon as he shoved I was like dear lord he has J9? But made the crying call which I agree is the right play since more times than not hes not having it.
 
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WiZZiM

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Oh yeah with those reads it's completely standard then, normally in position i'll take a free card, but checking we're not sure if we can see the river cheaply. But since were oop I think leading the turn is good, if we get raised it isn't great, but we get to control the pot size, and probably take it down a lot of the time. However i'm totally fine with the way it played out.

And as for the river bet size, pretty sure it's fine, if he's calling with one pair type hands really light, then we can get extra value from a larger bet, but we have to sort of estimate how much an opponant is willing to call, so i think 400 is a number that we're getting paid off with a lot.

Edit: also the good thing about betting to a size like 400, is that we can probably induce bluff raises, whereas a pot sized bet may discourage action.
 
tarinoidenkertoja

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If he s playing loose/aggressive , I d rather think that he missed a flush draw but wants the pot scaring you considering his stack and the bubble. Your weak bet on the river made him think that it was clumsy attempt to steal the pot (especially if he s so big stacked and aggressive). Of course i d call , and for the bet if it was your strategy to induce him in a huge bet it was great and reasonable, if not it was a mistake that turned out to be a great move.
 
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pat3392

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yea I wasnt shoving pre here just didnt make sense with the table dynamics the way they are. As far as leading out the flop I thought the board looked like a good flop for hands he would limp with. I thought about betting the draw on the turn but he was calling down with nothing so I figured hope for a freebie and hit. Then with the river popped off I considered checking hoping to induce a bet but thought this would be a good chance to work on my value betting. Normally I think I would have bet a little less but I have seen him call river bets a couple times with Q high.

as soon as he shoved I was like dear lord he has J9? But made the crying call which I agree is the right play since more times than not hes not having it.



Oh yeah with those reads it's completely standard then, normally in position i'll take a free card, but checking we're not sure if we can see the river cheaply. But since were oop I think leading the turn is good, if we get raised it isn't great, but we get to control the pot size, and probably take it down a lot of the time. However i'm totally fine with the way it played out.

And as for the river bet size, pretty sure it's fine, if he's calling with one pair type hands really light, then we can get extra value from a larger bet, but we have to sort of estimate how much an opponant is willing to call, so i think 400 is a number that we're getting paid off with a lot.

Edit: also the good thing about betting to a size like 400, is that we can probably induce bluff raises, whereas a pot sized bet may discourage action.

100% agree with flop hitting his range, too scary there to fire.

If he's calling with Q high I don't like a bet on the turn because it could turn into a tricky spot on the river; I'd rather just value bet my A high on the river if I think he's that bad.

I don't understand your logic; why bet the turn when you're OOP; I'd do that exact opposite of you and fire the turn if I was IP. Please explain your logic

There's a book out there that someone recommended me to read, which I can't remember the title atm but it was written by David Skalnsky. It had a chapter of betting hands that are for practical purposes the nuts on the river. It did a bunch of math that basically considered calling ranges and bet sizes and all other lovely things and it basically concluded that when betting the nuts on the river one should just about always bet either real big or real small; the reason is because a 1/2-2/3 pot bet is not going to get enough calls compared to a 4/5-1.5 pot bet to make it more profitable. At other times a 1/3 pot bet can be more optimal.

Interesting idea about a bluff raise. Personally I don't think it's likely enough for making it 400 to be profitable; how often do people actually bluff raise here? If villain was truly set on bluffing his way out of this hand wouldn't he have bet on the flop/turn/river/anywhere! I can't remember an instance when someone has done that to me. Of course if you think otherwise and believe that villain here is reasonably likely to do so then maybe a 400 is better because it is much, much more likely to happen with that size. However, the way OP wrote described this hand didn't exactly sound like he was keen to call the shove because he was likely bluffing
 
cjatud2012

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There's a book out there that someone recommended me to read, which I can't remember the title atm but it was written by David Skalnsky. It had a chapter of betting hands that are for practical purposes the nuts on the river. It did a bunch of math that basically considered calling ranges and bet sizes and all other lovely things and it basically concluded that when betting the nuts on the river one should just about always bet either real big or real small; the reason is because a 1/2-2/3 pot bet is not going to get enough calls compared to a 4/5-1.5 pot bet to make it more profitable. At other times a 1/3 pot bet can be more optimal.

No Limit Hold'em: Theory and Practice, I believe.
 
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