$3.30 NLHE STT: Top pair no kicker river decision

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16clumsyandshy

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9max SNG, 7 players left.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 75/150 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 16.39 BB (VPIP: 27.71, PFR: 10.98, 3Bet Preflop: 8.45, Hands: 167)
UTG: 9.2 BB (VPIP: 18.36, PFR: 14.93, 3Bet Preflop: 7.94, hands: 211)
UTG+1: 9.91 BB (VPIP: 23.73, PFR: 18.97, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 60)
MP: 15 BB (VPIP: 24.03, PFR: 16.89, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 158)
CO: 13.73 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 7.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)
Hero (BTN): 18.93 BB
SB: 6.83 BB (VPIP: 30.56, PFR: 9.47, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 108)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :ac4: :2c4:
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (4.5 BB, 2 players) :8c4: :kh4: :9h4:
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (4.5 BB, 2 players) :as4:
BB bets 2.25 BB, Hero calls 2.25 BB

River : (9.01 BB, 2 players) :6d4:
BB bets 4.51 BB, Hero ???

Villain here has been defending BB quite often. Based on quite a few hands I have with this player, I have found them to be a pretty straight forward player (typical of a 27/10 player in my experience).

I'm really just wondering what this player is representing by leading the turn and river. Generally, when I see a player lead a card that should be good for my range, I assume that they have either a huge hand or a semi bluff. I don't think they would bet any 8x, 9x, or Kx because those hands are just bluffcatchers now and would probably just check/call turn and maybe check/fold river. I can see combo draws leading the turn, but based on my read of him he is not going with this bluff on the river very often. It's more likely to me based on the betting that this player has two pair or a set, or possibly a stronger ace (AQ-AT). Thoughts on calling/folding here?
 
P

PepeTurtle

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I have this feeling villain is not leading less than two pairs. Can't see his river bet making any ace to fold but there's some splits A3 A4 A5 right ?
 
froggeedogs

froggeedogs

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with you both checking on the flop and him betting the turn with a flat call from you, I put him on Ax. obviously with a 2 kicker, to me it is an easy fold.
just my opinion. with only 3 1/2 bb to see, your odds aren't horrible.
 
T

trent32la

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Shove pre, call river.
 
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16clumsyandshy

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Shove pre, call river.



Just wondering what the reasoning for the river call is. My biggest question is whether or not villain leads this turn with more bluffs than value hands, and even further does he continue on the river after I've called the turn.
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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3:1 pot odds are tempting.

But if the villain isn't bluffing then the best we can hope for is a split pot. Since you are hoping to win half the pot (3/2):1 = 1.5:1 are the real pot odds here.
So you need to split the pot 1 / (1.5+1) = 40% of the time to make a call profitable if he is not bluffing.

If we make his non-bluffing range [A2-AQ,98,K9,K8,K6,99,88,66] you have a split pot just 15% of the time according to this site:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations

There is some chance that he's bluffing with a busted flush draw, but we don't have much reason to put him on a bluff here.

After the flop is checked, the ace on the turn should deter most bluffers, since there are many aces in the range of hands that you would have raised pre-flop. So we would have to believe that he is bluffing (or semi-bluffing) two streets knowing that there is a good chance you have an Ace.

Fold.
 
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