$3.30 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Tough spot for AKo

choppot · Nov 30, 2018

It's late in the tourney with 16 players left. The min cash was paying at 15th place and on the pure bubble. My stack size ranked 6th out of 16. The blinds were 500/1,000 and 100 ante with 8 players on the table. The UTG player raised all in for 6,700. Then the UTG +3 re raised all in for 21,000. I was on the HJ with AKo and my stack of 19,000 was covered by the re raise. I wasn't worried about the first all in for his range was wide with a 6 bb shove. The second shove on the other hand was my concern. I put this person on a range of AK, AQ, and all the pocket pairs. I also knew this was a raise to try to isolate. I had to tank on this situation and was wondering what others would say about this hand.

corieaddison · Nov 30, 2018

This is for sure a close call. Myself I would probably fold since it was the bubble and was in the 6th spot. I guess depending on the other players stack depths I might call. Really Really tough to say.

Another part of it is are you willing to go for it there or wait for another spot?

What could that other player be shoving with in the utg+3 spot? probably not a weak Ace. AK, AQ, AJ maybe. lots of pocket pairs possibly. So you are basically hoping he has AQ AJ. Is that enough value to call, and rather not see a pocket pair?

Good Luck!

Brawo · Nov 30, 2018

AKo I would fold, AKs I would probably call, it depends how UTG+3 played earlier, If he was agressive, I call, Is he tight player? I probably fold, because every pair has an adventage over me 3:5, but my hand is suited and I have a lot of outs, difficult decision, very important ability to read the table.

choppot · Nov 30, 2018

Didn't have much info on the player. Only played a few hands and didn't have a strong read. The range I put him on was a default range I put on anybody that I don't have much info on.

liuouhgkres · Nov 30, 2018

ICM wise I think it should be easy fold. Even 6bb shover is shoving quite tight from UTG and overshover has a very tight range. Need to put it in icm-zer, but even before plugging in numbers I feel like it is a very easy fold.

choppot · Dec 3, 2018

Results:

Considering where I was in the rankings I decided to fold the hand. When both hands were turned up the first all in had Q9o and the one I was worried about had AKo. The board ran out in favor of the first all in player. He had a 4 suit board that hit his suit for the flush and giving him the double up. I guess the morale of this is sometimes you have to fold a strong hand. I also ended up taking first place in that tourney for $200.

Thanks to the ones that replied.

Nathan Smith · Dec 3, 2018

choppot said:
It's late in the tourney with 16 players left. The min cash was paying at 15th place and on the pure bubble. My stack size ranked 6th out of 16. The blinds were 500/1,000 and 100 ante with 8 players on the table. The UTG player raised all in for 6,700. Then the UTG +3 re raised all in for 21,000. I was on the HJ with AKo and my stack of 19,000 was covered by the re raise. I wasn't worried about the first all in for his range was wide with a 6 bb shove. The second shove on the other hand was my concern. I put this person on a range of AK, AQ, and all the pocket pairs. I also knew this was a raise to try to isolate. I had to tank on this situation and was wondering what others would say about this hand.

I think it is a fold. It is difficult - but with the ICM considerations and the fact that the someone else could be shoving another Ace (removing one of your outs) it is a fold. Against one other player only it is a call. And maybe AKs is a call just to make sure you aren't folding AK everytime in this spot.

playinggameswithu · Dec 3, 2018

Bubble fold. 72o has 40% equity against you. Fold your 10% edge oh well. EZ fold if only 1st or 2nd maybe 3 matters to you than snap call and hopefully they dont have a pair.

choppot · Dec 4, 2018

playinggameswithu said:
Bubble fold. 72o has 40% equity against you. Fold your 10% edge oh well. EZ fold if only 1st or 2nd maybe 3 matters to you than snap call and hopefully they dont have a pair.

Not sure where your getting your numbers from but 72o does not have 40% equity against AKo. Might want to plug those hands in a hand odds calculator so you know the true equity of 72o.

Ovuvuevuevue · Dec 4, 2018

Easiest fold ever. Don't even need to know player tendencies or whatever, there's just no reason to risk your chips like that when you're at the bubble and when you consider ICM. AK is just a drawing hand, it doesn't have any independent strength.

ph_il · Dec 5, 2018

I don't understand why people are folding here. Unless this is a satellite MTT, I think this is a pretty clear call.

The bubble doesn't mean anything and the fact that you're currently 6/16 doesn't mean anything. In 2 levels, if blinds are 1k/2k and your stack doesn't improve, you're sitting on -10BBs and will have to push/call with a much wider range and likely less equity.

Even if we give UTG a fairly tight shove range of: 22+, A2s+, A10+, any broadway, and UTG+3 and even tighter range of 1010+, AKo, A10s+, suited broadway, AKo still has ~36% equity. It's practically break even with UTG+3. However, it's possible to push even wider, increasing our equity in the hand.

I just can't see giving up a great spot to pick up a ~47BB. Bubbling is definitely worth the risk at a great chance to picking up a huge pot and potentially finish much higher.

ph_il · Dec 5, 2018

Ovuvuevuevue said:
AK is just a drawing hand, it doesn't have any independent strength.

This statement is so silly.

AK is:
-a favorite vs non-paired hands.
-50/50 vs 22-QQ.
-has ~30% equity vs KK.
-only a huge underdog vs AA with ~7% equity.

Even if you know your opponent only shoves 22+ and nothing else, AK is only a slight underdog at 45/55. And, as a bonus, AK plays flops a lot better than a lot of hands, even if they do miss.

Now, lets look at 22. That's not a drawing hand. It has independent strength, right? How well do you think that hand does against the ranges I put AK against? It only has more equity vs AA than AK does. Against a player that only shoves 22+, you're a huge 20/80 underdog. Finally, how well does 22 play against flops when it misses?

Ovuvuevuevue · Dec 5, 2018

ohshootmybad said:
This statement is so silly.

AK is:
-a favorite vs non-paired hands.
-50/50 vs 22-QQ.
-has ~30% equity vs KK.
-only a huge underdog vs AA with ~7% equity.

Even if you know your opponent only shoves 22+ and nothing else, AK is only a slight underdog at 45/55. And, as a bonus, AK plays flops a lot better than a lot of hands, even if they do miss.

Now, lets look at 22. That's not a drawing hand. It has independent strength, right? How well do you think that hand does against the ranges I put AK against? It only has more equity vs AA than AK does. Against a player that only shoves 22+, you're a huge 20/80 underdog. Finally, how well does 22 play against flops when it misses?

Obvious obvious fold on the bubble. Calling shoves with AK is negative EV in the long run especially in this situation. Why risk a guaranteed cash? It's just simple gap theory.

gryphon3005 · Dec 5, 2018

Forget the math. Survival is what counts more than anything else here.

Jacki Burkhart · Dec 5, 2018

Without having done any math, I'm fairly positive this is an ICM fold. that's my gut.

however....in reality and my experience....I'm almost never folding AK here at this stack depth.

if you are playing at stakes that you are rolled for....then we should be playing for the top 3 spots. 19bb with AK is a spot we just don't fold if we really want to win tourneys. I almost never fold AK preflop for less than 40 BB. of course there are exceptions. But if you want to be good at tourneys you need to fall in love with AK.

if this was a very important tourney for my bankroll that I had sattied into.....then I could forgive myself for folding.

otherwise.... I tell myself this is what the poker gods had in store for me today and I follow the path that was laid out for me.

AK is a premium hand. ESP short stacked in tourneys. GG.

popstani · Dec 7, 2018

ohshootmybad said:
I don't understand why people are folding here. Unless this is a satellite MTT, I think this is a pretty clear call.

The bubble doesn't mean anything and the fact that you're currently 6/16 doesn't mean anything. In 2 levels, if blinds are 1k/2k and your stack doesn't improve, you're sitting on -10BBs and will have to push/call with a much wider range and likely less equity.

Even if we give UTG a fairly tight shove range of: 22+, A2s+, A10+, any broadway, and UTG+3 and even tighter range of 1010+, AKo, A10s+, suited broadway, AKo still has ~36% equity. It's practically break even with UTG+3. However, it's possible to push even wider, increasing our equity in the hand.

I just can't see giving up a great spot to pick up a ~47BB. Bubbling is definitely worth the risk at a great chance to picking up a huge pot and potentially finish much higher.

He could not finish higher than this. With this fold he finished on the first place, so you’re statement doesn’t really work to often. Definitely good fold.

Jacki Burkhart · Dec 7, 2018

popstani said:
He could not finish higher than this. With this fold he finished on the first place, so you’re statement doesn’t really work to often. Definitely good fold.

It’s not a satellite. Or if it is it was never mentioned in the original post.

I’m never folding here. Top 3 spots for me and sometimes you’re just meant to bubble. If you bubble may as go out in a spot where you are putting yourself in position to win.

mara2259 · Dec 11, 2018

You put your opponent on too narrow a range. In this case, the math is not in your favor. On the other hand, dropping the AK now, in the future it will be very difficult to enter the game without a pocket AA pair. Good luck in making a difficult decision.

playinggameswithu · Dec 11, 2018

choppot said:
Not sure where your getting your numbers from but 72o does not have 40% equity against AKo. Might want to plug those hands in a hand odds calculator so you know the true equity of 72o.

Eh 33% still point stands. you only have win twice lose once. Its a fold.

playinggameswithu · Dec 11, 2018

AKo is the most overated and over played hand in Hold'em it is a very dominate Ace high that needs weaker ace and king to stay in the pot which they often dont do after the 3 bet. It is not even a top 5% hand as all the pairs have like 16 pros and 2 cons and are hence better than AKo all factors considered that being said I'd rather get AK against most peoples ranges than a pocket pair. Just fold the ace high if they both have live hands or even 22 you are a dog.

swannymojo · Dec 11, 2018

Imho this is an easy fold. AKo doesn't play well multi way. You are probably ahead against the short stack shove but it's likely your up against some sort of pocket hand which you are not a huge dog but not favored to win. Youd likely have 40 percent equity or so here. Not a bad call if you want to get it in especially if the player who rejammed is especially loose...but if you have an edge at your table. Get your money in somewhere else. Villains stats could be useful to share.

playinggameswithu · Dec 11, 2018

Best case scenario we have them both dominated one as AJo and other has KQo. We have a 2% edge to win over them. Just fold that ace high because it is a 3x +1 per limper hand pre flop and then taking stacks with TPGK vs TPTK hand post flop. Its not a big pair it just feals like it. 2% edge at BEST FOLD on the bubble!! You also aint going to 1st with a 2% edge.

levidoff · Dec 13, 2018

for me it is easy fold

ph_il · Dec 13, 2018

swannymojo said:
Imho this is an easy fold. AKo doesn't play well multi way. You are probably ahead against the short stack shove but it's likely your up against some sort of pocket hand which you are not a huge dog but not favored to win. Youd likely have 40 percent equity or so here. Not a bad call if you want to get it in especially if the player who rejammed is especially loose...but if you have an edge at your table. Get your money in somewhere else. Villains stats could be useful to share.

With 16 BBs, getting it in with 40% equity isn't terrible.

I get what you're saying about having an edge over the table as you might be able to find more profitable spots, but I think this is too good of a spot to get it in, even with 40% equity, when you only have 16 BBs. I can see a fold here if OP had a much larger stack and the edge over the other players, though.

ph_il · Dec 13, 2018

playinggameswithu said:
Best case scenario we have them both dominated one as AJo and other has KQo. We have a 2% edge to win over them. Just fold that ace high because it is a 3x +1 per limper hand pre flop and then taking stacks with TPGK vs TPTK hand post flop. Its not a big pair it just feals like it. 2% edge at BEST FOLD on the bubble!! You also aint going to 1st with a 2% edge.

You might want to check your numbers again.

$3.30 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Tough spot for AKo

choppot

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corieaddison

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Brawo

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choppot

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liuouhgkres

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choppot

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Nathan Smith

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playinggameswithu

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choppot

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Ovuvuevuevue

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ph_il

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Ovuvuevuevue

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gryphon3005

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Jacki Burkhart

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popstani

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Jacki Burkhart

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mara2259

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playinggameswithu

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playinggameswithu

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swannymojo

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levidoff

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