$3.30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $ : $ : TPTK Vs. Check-Raise All-In

F

faf

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Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 100/200 NL - Holdem - 8 players

SB: 26.41 BB (VPIP: 11.90, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, hands: 42)
BB: 73.77 BB (VPIP: 24.62, PFR: 18.82, 3Bet Preflop: 8.42, Hands: 263)
UTG: 64.2 BB (VPIP: 42.55, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 48)
UTG+1: 23.51 BB (VPIP: 23.12, PFR: 19.84, 3Bet Preflop: 7.79, Hands: 401)
Hero (MP): 105.92 BB
MP+1: 100.43 BB (VPIP: 25.81, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 31)
CO: 76.92 BB (VPIP: 17.50, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 40)
BTN: 44.44 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has A J:spade:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (13.3 BB, 4 players) 5 6 J:club:
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 6.65 BB, fold, BB calls 6.65 BB, UTG raises to 61.1 BB and is all-in

UTG seems like a TAG. He's capable of making very aggressive moves post-flop. what should hero do here?
 
akmost

akmost

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Tough spot I am the nittiest person in those spots.48 hands are not many but is suspicious that he decided to open 3x instead of open limp once again. Isn't is?
UTG is the definition of a weak player 42/10. something like 15/13 would be a TAG but again you don't have many hands.

You beat many KJ,QJ,JT but what about the QQ+ ? Sorry but I would muck here for 61bbs.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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I think that in a spot like this, most opponents feel very vulnerable with a bare jack here. They are also pretty likely to just cbet a flush draw, and if they DON'T, it's usually bc they are so passive that they are just check calling it.

The kinds of value hands I expect to run into here would be overpairs. A LOT. This opponent has shown that they are VERY loose pre but very passive pre, so their open preflop is likely something like 88+/AJ+/KQ ish. Our sample size isn't huge but I think this is a reasonable estimate. With that in mind, since there are only a few hands that would even be FD's in that range, AND he'd have to choose to play them this way... I would just let it go. Overpairs are very possible and way more likely he plays them this way.

It's also possible that he opens some smaller pairs too and plays all his sets this way. So from my perspective all signs point to a fold here.
 
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