$3.30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Two pair on dangerous flop, how do you play it?

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TheShek

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I don't have PT4 working so can't convert the hand.

I am on the button with J9 of hearts
Effective stacks are 44bb (I'm the shortest stack)
MP raise 2.5x, I call, BB calls.


Flop: Jd9d8h
MP leads out for half pot.


How do you play this hand in this spot with the BB yet to act?


I decided to ship it, I was called by both the BB who had KTo with no diamond, and MP had KdTd for a monster combo draw. I held and tripled.


I'm very tired and a bit tilted after losing a few pots where I wasn't sure if I was being bluffed. I won a huge pot, but I'm putting this hand out there for discussion as I need to correct all my leaks.


Obviously it would be a much better spot if there wasn't a made straight on the board.


Running the equities, I am an underdog in this spot on the flop. 37.18% against 50.21% for MP with the combo draw, and 17.99% for the BB.


Even if I just called the raise to play a turn, I'm still an underdog when it bricks with the 2 spades. I still only have 32.39% to win, MP has 43.63 and BB has 23.97. If we take out the flush draw and I'm playing heads up, I'm a 55/45 favourite on the flop and 57/42 on the turn.


I got very lucky to hold. I was hoping for folds on the flop, trying to fold out pair plus draw type hands. Obviously this is just a results oriented simulation. I'll do some more number crunching later with ranges of hands.
 
ZenGreen

ZenGreen

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I got very lucky to hold. I was hoping for folds on the flop,

This part is what caught my attention. First you were NOT lucky to hold, you got youre money in way ahead of both players making this play awsome

Now I think we need some better players for answers here but I think you are betting for the wrong reasons if youre looking for folds with 2 pairs. I think its something like why do we bet to get value from worse hands and to make better hands fold. On boards like this better hands usually are never folding since they are power hands and it doesnt matter beacuse you still have outs and you are beating some big hands that will call. Now if youre trying to make hands fold that are drawing then youre thinking is going to kill you

But I too am trying to understand stuff like this WHy am I betting, Why am I checking etc. If anyone has got anything to add to this, please do
 
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quant1986

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I would raise to 8x and hope there would be one caller left.

BB could have pushed all-in with KdTd if raised and MP should find a fold there as you have to act behind.

If BB shoves, I would put BB in this range [KT,QT,J9,98] so would be very much a coin flip against Jh9h.

Also preflop I would have 3bet bluff with J9s.
 
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TheShek

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I just didn't think it was a great spot, and felt I overplayed my hand. After running the simulations I realised I was an underdog on the flop and turn against the monster draw. Also, QT is out there and I don't have any blockers for flush or straight outs. I don't think it's great to get your money in as an underdog. I'm glad I held and often two pair on this flop will be good, it would be much better if there wasn't a made straight on the flop. Even in that scenario it's even money. Got to win in these spots to win tournaments though.
 
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