$3.30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: 1.5k GTD: is calling turn the most +EV choice?

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
The action here and player types and the action along with this board indicate that there are very few flushdraws out there despite the two clubs. I think the best case scenario is that BB has two pair. there are some higher sets and some pair + gutshot hands and a couple combos of QJs. Q and Jx are the worst river cards, clubs arent great but im not that worried about clubs here.

Am I correct in assuming that raising this turn to protect my set isnt really valid given there are only 8/47 possible river cards that really suck and the only thing that folds are club draws and naked bluffs

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 25/50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


SB: 94.7 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 3.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
BB: 66.9 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 40)
UTG: 87.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
Hero (UTG+1): 121.1 BB
MP: 136.84 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 25.64, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 40)
MP+1: 158.3 BB (VPIP: 17.14, PFR: 2.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
MP+2: 83.2 BB (VPIP: 24.26, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 137)
CO: 117.3 BB (VPIP: 25.45, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 57)
BTN: 129.5 BB (VPIP: 28.28, PFR: 21.35, 3Bet Preflop: 11.33, Hands: 537)


SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2:club: 2:heart:


fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold


Flop: (13 BB, 4 players) T:club: A:diamond: K:diamond:
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 checks, CO checks


Turn: (13 BB, 4 players) 2:spade:
SB bets 9.76 BB,


Hero calls 9.76 BB, fold, CO calls 9.76 BB


River: (42.28 BB, 3 players) Q:diamond:
SB bets 22 BB, Hero calls 22 BB, fold


Literally the worst possible river. I dont think I can fold this river though given SPR and the odds that he just has two pair here. let me know if you think I'm wrong to call here


SB shows J:club: Q:club: (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 52%, Flop 97%, Turn 77%)
Hero shows 2:club: 2:heart: (Three of a Kind, Twos)
(Pre 48%, Flop 3%, Turn 23%)
SB wins 86.28 BB
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
excuse the redundancy typo and I meant SB in the description above
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
.... i should read my own hand history when i post my hands... haha i got the suits wrong too... idk why i was thinking clubs... i meant diamonds... sorry for the double post
 
U

uavissar

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2017
Total posts
129
Chips
0
I don't see raising here a bad move at all at this depth. SB bet big into 3 players. You have a set. Unless he has a higher set or the nuts, and I think only 1010 is reasonable with the preflop action, he has 2 pair or some strong draw.
Nuts or higher set are unlucky and you still can improve on the river.

I see raising here is for value. He is not going to fold those draws and two pairs unless he is very, very nitty or bluffing. Bluffs won't give you any value on the river anyway. Its time to inflate the pot now. 21BB. I don't see two pairs and strong combo draws folding to that as you are deep enough.

If you get re-raised- I'd probably tank and fold.

If you get called, you have position. Obviously once you take the initiative, only a suicidal player would donk without the nuts. On flush and straights I'd check back, FH and anything else bet value. If I get raised, without a FH I fold.

tldr- I think calling is not making the most value out of your set.

Now I saw the results and I think your river call was a mistake. You beat a bluff. On this river, two pair does not bet there once called on turn.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
i mean, my thinking was that if I check I allow him to bet the river with 2 pair... i guess he's not folding 2 pair to a raise
 
U

uavissar

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2017
Total posts
129
Chips
0
i mean, my thinking was that if I check I allow him to bet the river with 2 pair... i guess he's not folding 2 pair to a raise

Beyond the "not folding 2 pair " logic, why count on your opponent to "give" you value? He may just decide to check on a scary river (for example-suppose he had 2P, he bets turn, you call, and get the same river. Do you think he would bet again? Do you think he would call your river bet if you decide to bet? (a mistake imo))
 
liuouhgkres

liuouhgkres

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Dec 21, 2016
Total posts
920
Awards
2
KH
Chips
33
I personally always call in similar situation. My main reason is that I don't have clear raising range here, other than hands that I slowplayed on the flop, and that will be only pair of aces sometimes. Also I can't think of bluffs that I can have here. Calling also gives opportunity to villain to continue to bluff on the river, if he check no big deal, we just bet ourselves.
 
Top