$3.30 NLHE MTT: All in or fold?

All in or Fold?

  • All In

    Votes: 10 83.3%
  • Fold

    Votes: 2 16.7%

  • Total voters
    12
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rickblackdog

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Here I'm v deep in the $3.30, been playing for about 8 hours, approaching the final table about 15 players left of 5096. My rep up to this point has been quite aggro, but some new players might perceive me as a nit given my play since they arrived at the table. I suspected villain was just trying to bluff me out of the pot.

Question is, are you folding here. I'll post the outcome after a bit of analysis.

PokerStars - 30000/60000 Ante 6250 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 30.17 BB
SB: 52.33 BB
BB: 16.03 BB
UTG: 32.4 BB
UTG+1: 37.49 BB
Hero (MP): 34.32 BB
CO: 43.89 BB

7 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.23 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.1 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.1 BB

Flop: (5.43 BB, 2 players) K 3 4
BB checks, Hero bets 2.71 BB, BB raises to 13.82 BB and is all-in

 
jaworek1405

jaworek1405

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Hello, I think that in this situation I fold. It was semi final table. Sometimes we have here 12 outs to win this hand, but sometimes we have only 9 outs to flush draws to win this hand. We risk about 50% of our stack to call his allin, for me is a little too much, especially on semi final table. If I have some reads on this player , I know something more, how he play, some mistakes in his game before that hand, then very rarely I call his allin.
 
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fundiver199

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I think, this is a fairly clear call. You are getting around 2:1, so you need 33% equity to break even in chip EV. You have less than 33% against a flopped set, but he is not only doing this with flopped sets. He is doing this with many other hands as well, even including some you are ahead off, and many others, where you have one or even two live overcards. You also have some backdoor straight potential.

Sure we need to factor in ICM, but ICM is not all that important, when you are only risking half your stack, and there are no important payjumps right now. You need to find spots to make a run for top-5, where the real money is. There are mostly good players left now, and the money matter to everyone, so nobody is just going to donate their stack to you at this point. This mean, you cannot afford to make a nitty laydown and pass on a spot like this.
 
TheDude6622

TheDude6622

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I think, this is a fairly clear call. You are getting around 2:1, so you need 33% equity to break even in chip EV. You have less than 33% against a flopped set, but he is not only doing this with flopped sets. He is doing this with many other hands as well, even including some you are ahead off, and many others, where you have one or even two live overcards. You also have some backdoor straight potential.

Sure we need to factor in ICM, but ICM is not all that important, when you are only risking half your stack, and there are no important payjumps right now. You need to find spots to make a run for top-5, where the real money is. There are mostly good players left now, and the money matter to everyone, so nobody is just going to donate their stack to you at this point. This mean, you cannot afford to make a nitty laydown and pass on a spot like this.

Completely agree. If you have that nit/aggro vibe that everyone is perceiving of you, then this is a hand that we have to go with. The villain could have a pocket or an okay K. If they have a flush draw as well, we are in amazing shape. You have a big chip lead over the opponent and even if you lose, you are more than alive. A call for me.
 
moulan7

moulan7

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Great analysis by fundiver, I fully agree too.

I'm sure that you didn't have the time to think about any of those because you snap call, didn't you? xD

This is a risk we need to take at this point and a great opportunity to move deeper.
If he shoves pre, you call. He shoves with that flop, you call. Same thing xD.

If we lose, no big deal, we played a decent chance and we are still pretty alive.
 
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pandapower99

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Easy call imo. Villain has air alot of the time or a worse flush draw . Even if you lose your not out. These are the calls that need to be made to win which should always be the goal
 
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rickblackdog

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Love this site - thank you all for your analysis. I agree, it's a call, here's my take:

My holding blocks AK and KQ, so in my mind I'm more likely up against a set, nothing or something weak. In my position I have a LOT of Kx hands and if he's a decent player he would be aware of this.

Turns out the villain had 94c, the turn was another 4 and river was nothing helpful to me and I ended up losing the hand.

In villains mind, he was not looking for a call.

With my two overs and nut flush draw I'm around 40% equity so I still this the call is correct.

I hate his play, not because I lost, but just that he's dominated so much here and he's risking his tournament life with bottom pair, poor kicker.
 
moulan7

moulan7

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Jeez... what to say here.. rip
I always wander how some players are so fearless and risk depended.
For example, in his shoes and that size of stack i fold pre here.

Well played, bad results, life goes on.
 
jordanbillie

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Love this site - thank you all for your analysis. I agree, it's a call, here's my take:

My holding blocks AK and KQ, so in my mind I'm more likely up against a set, nothing or something weak. In my position I have a LOT of Kx hands and if he's a decent player he would be aware of this.

Turns out the villain had 94c, the turn was another 4 and river was nothing helpful to me and I ended up losing the hand.

In villains mind, he was not looking for a call.

With my two overs and nut flush draw I'm around 40% equity so I still this the call is correct.

I hate his play, not because I lost, but just that he's dominated so much here and he's risking his tournament life with bottom pair, poor kicker.


9 4 getting paid!

I wonder if he/she reflected on the play of this hand at all. Jamming with 9 4 there is a little suspicious and the villain was lucky to be a coin flip with that jam.

Obviously in retrospect this is a great call, since we now know the villains range is very wide (it could have been a lower flush draw!).
 
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fundiver199

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With my two overs and nut flush draw I'm around 40% equity so I still this the call is correct.

You actually had 53% equity, and for sure your call was correct.

I hate his play, not because I lost, but just that he's dominated so much here and he's risking his tournament life with bottom pair, poor kicker.


I actually like his play a lot. Sure 94s is not a great hand, but when you essentially mini-raise, he is getting more than right odds to defend with it. He has to pay 1,1BB to win 5,43BB, so he need less than 20% equity, and he had 35% against your exact hand. Sure he is going to under realize his equity out of position, but less so, when stacks are short.

On the flop he hit second pair and a BDFD, so he can clearly not fold. He could check-call, but its not great to continue out of position with such a small pair. Most future cards will be overcards, and if Hero bet again, Villain has no idea, if Hero is bluffing, or if Hero just got there.

If Villain check-raise all-in however, he get a ton of folds, and when he get action, he usually have 5 outs. Most of Heros range has missed this board completely, but most people will C-bet a ton anyway.

At the end of the day you both had semi-bluffing hands, you both played well, and he just came out on top. It is, what it is. The only thing, I might do different, is that preflop sizing. If you are going to raise to 2,1BB, you must at least understand, that it significantly widen the range, big blind is supposed to defend with.
 
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jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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You actually had 53% equity, and for sure your call was correct.




I actually like his play a lot. Sure 94s is not a great hand, but when you essentially mini-raise, he is getting more than right odds to defend with it. He has to pay 1,1BB to win 5,43BB, so he need less than 20% equity, and he had 35% against your exact hand. Sure he is going to under realize his equity out of position, but less so, when stacks are short.

On the flop he hit second pair and a BDFD, so he can clearly not fold. He could check-call, but its not great to continue out of position with such a small pair. Most future cards will be overcards, and if Hero bet again, Villain has no idea, if Hero is bluffing, or if Hero just got there.

If Villain check-raise all-in however, he get a ton of folds, and when he get action, he usually have 5 outs. Most of Heros range has missed this board completely, but most people will C-bet a ton anyway.

At the end of the day you both had semi-bluffing hands, you both played well, and he just came out on top. It is, what it is. The only thing, I might do different, is that preflop sizing. If you are going to raise to 2,1BB, you must at least understand, that it significantly widen the range, big blind is supposed to defend with.


Fantastic analysis, Fundiver. :D
 
SuzdalDEcor

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Ofc no! Never fold this hand on this board vs short BB. You had good chances to call.
 
Tunkki

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Calling is obvious decision. If you want to avoid situations like this you could just check the flop and see the free turn.
 
jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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Calling is obvious decision. If you want to avoid situations like this you could just check the flop and see the free turn.


Checking the flop is not a terrible idea, depending on the reads you have on your opponent.
 
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fundiver199

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Checking the flop is not a terrible idea, depending on the reads you have on your opponent.

That is true. We have the nut nothing, so Villain basically only fold hands, that are behind. And when he continue, he usually jam, and we end up playing a coin flip. Betting is not bad, but checking behind is a lower variance alternative, that might even be slightly more +EV in the long run.
 
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ibetmyho

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Good lord, there is a clear cut call. I'm not even sure why would you even consider a fold? He could have worse draws and AQhh has plenty equity when he has the King.

If want to win tournaments or make deep runs you have to build big stacks and this is a clear spot to call.
 
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fundiver199

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Good lord, there is a clear cut call. I'm not even sure why would you even consider a fold? He could have worse draws and AQhh has plenty equity when he has the King. If want to win tournaments or make deep runs you have to build big stacks and this is a clear spot to call.

OP did make the call, and I think, he was mostly just irritated to lose to, what he felt was a bad hand and a bad play. As I wrote already, I think, the Villain played well, but its very common to have this entitlement feeling, that the best starting hand should always win. Just look at the amount of posts, where people whine about their aces getting cracked.
 
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ibetmyho

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OP did make the call, and I think, he was mostly just irritated to lose to, what he felt was a bad hand and a bad play. As I wrote already, I think, the Villain played well, but its very common to have this entitlement feeling, that the best starting hand should always win. Just look at the amount of posts, where people whine about their aces getting cracked.


Poker is so mentally tough, grinding 8 hours and to lose a big pot can be heart breaking. But all you can do is to keep making the correct decisions and eventually things will run your way.
 
Haze777s

Haze777s

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Poker is so mentally tough, grinding 8 hours and to lose a big pot can be heart breaking. But all you can do is to keep making the correct decisions and eventually things will run your way.
Yes friend the variance is large in this game and you have to play a lot of tables to reduce it
 
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fundiver199

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Poker is so mentally tough, grinding 8 hours and to lose a big pot can be heart breaking. But all you can do is to keep making the correct decisions and eventually things will run your way.

This is the nature of tournaments. If you want something with less variance, cash games or SNGs are the answer.
 
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