$3.30 NLHE MTT: $$3.30 NLHE MTT: Flopping Quads: shove river ?

***** Hand History for Game 16576493665 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $3.30 USD Buy-in Trny:152113113 Level:16 Blinds-Antes(1,250/2,500 -250) - Sunday, October 22, 15:27:46 EDT 2017
Table Monster-08-Micro. $15K Gtd (152113113) Table #7 (real money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8/8
Seat 3: ******* ( 101,156 )
Seat 1: PepeTurtle ( 180,223 )
Seat 2: ******* ( 92,466 )
Seat 7: ******* ( 24,272 )
Seat 5: ******* ( 76,840 )
Seat 8: VILLAIN ( 65,952 )
Seat 4: ******* ( 13,707 )
Seat 6: ******* ( 136,240 )

Trny:152113113 Level:16

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PepeTurtle [ Qs Qd ]
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
PepeTurtle raises [5,500]
folds
folds
folds
folds
folds
folds
VILLAIN calls [3,000]

** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, Qc, 9c ]
VILLAIN checks
PepeTurtle checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
VILLAIN checks
PepeTurtle checks
** Dealing River ** [ 5c ]
VILLAIN bets [8,888]
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
PepeTurtle raises [26,666]
VILLAIN calls [17,778]
PepeTurtle shows [ Qs, Qd ]four of a kind, Queens.
VILLAIN doesn't show [ Ac, Js ]a flush, Ace high.
PepeTurtle wins 67,582 chips from the main pot with four of a kind, Queens.

I'd shove here. What is he betting with? If it's a bluff or a weak pair, he folds to any significant re-raise anyway.
If it's a flush or full house, there is a good chance he calls the shove.
I would expect that an overpair like AA or KK would have bet an earlier street.

Yeah, kind too late and my time bank was little. I like my line but at the river I was not sure he could have like the A of clubs. Thought maybe if I looked like a bluff he could call with a J or even the T of clubs.

Now I think were great the chances of being called repping bluff shove. Also influenced the fact that villain had decent numbers and an average winning player so I thought that even with the nut flush he would suspect something and so I opted for that value.

Thanks Alex

Best Regards

AviCKter said:

Why not try to build the pot with a small bet on the turn? Somewhere around 1/3rd~1/2 pot, if he doesn't have a draw or made flush, you're not going to get paid anyways. If you get called, you could have bet full pot or overbet shoved on the river.

Click to expand...

Because my UTG range, I decided to show weakness acting as if I had missed the flop and still had some value with a hand like AK at showdown check check, also it was my intention on the turn to show I had no clubs so I could look like suspicious on the river plus I was not expecting at all the river leading, IF so, this particular villain would do this as value bluff with absolute air and fold to a reraise.

Remember what I said, this player was a solid one, a thinker, I believe truly capable of folding big hands in tough spots. If not my guess is he would have put me on a bluff as I intend to look like and would have gone allin with the nut flush, instead he tanked for a while and just called.

But I remember other situations where I flopped quads and bet small turn like a stab and it worked well indeed.

PepeTurtle said:

Remember what I said, this player was a solid one, a thinker, I believe truly capable of folding big hands in tough spots.

Click to expand...

This assumption might have been corrected when he called the river (or hoping, you did that). I mean, what hands could possibly check flop, check turn and re-raise river on that run-out; you're just saying, I've a full-house or better, pay me off if you've a flush (remember, you can't bluff with air on that river. Even a K high flush is going to just call)? If he was truly a thinking player, with the nut flush in his hand, he would have been suspicious of your action and correctly folded (a strong hand, in this case).

But see the other scenario, when you bet the turn, you've a wider range of hands (you're assuming he missed, so you're value betting all your range), so he could even possible call with worse hands than A-high flush draw, and if he would have checked the river, you could bet once again (as value or bluff, in his view) and might even had gotten check-raised with his nut flush, hoping that you have a worse flush. He would have then not been able to put you on such a narrow range and would have to pay you off on the river.

I don't disagree with you. But I honestly thought as he was BB, the range he was defending with, that any bet he was snap folding.

Best Regards

I like betting the turn small too, protects your delayed c-bet bluff range and builds the pot a bit when they decide to call.

I think the fourth club on the river is your best chance to get big value, betting smaller and hoping to get called by a pair or raised by a flush otherwise.

Good luck to you!

Bet Sizing Calculator:

The calculations are easy to do manually, but this makes it even easier:

https://redchippoker.com/simple-poker-ev-calculator/

Hero has the nuts, so the answer to "If you lose, what's your expected loss?" is zero.

It's denominated in dollars, but works fine if you enter chip amounts.

Villain's stack is 51,564 before Pepe's river raise.

If villain calls the 17,778 that is asked of him 50% of the time, Pepe's chip EV from the raise is 8,889.

If Pepe goes all in, villain would need to call 51,564. If he does that just 20% of the time - less than half as often as he calls the smaller raise - Pepe's chip EV is 12,891.

I like the bigger bet.

ICM plays into this, since each additional chip won is worth less than the chip won before it. Stacks are low, so we are probably near the bubble, or in the money. We don't have the information we need to do that calculation, and I'm not sure how to do it. I believe we'd need to use a paid-for ICM tool.

Everytime I check on turn trying to trap, I end up regretting. Imho, villain has a wide range, a lot of flushes, small pairs and etc. You could bet on turn around 40%-50%. Less would be meaningless from theoretical standpoint, because you want defend your range against flushes, right? On the river AlexTheOwl showed why you should have shoved.

AlexTheOwl said:

Bet Sizing Calculator:

The calculations are easy to do manually, but this makes it even easier:

https://redchippoker.com/simple-poker-ev-calculator/

Hero has the nuts, so the answer to "If you lose, what's your expected loss?" is zero.

It's denominated in dollars, but works fine if you enter chip amounts.

Villain's stack is 51,564 before Pepe's river raise.

If villain calls the 17,778 that is asked of him 50% of the time, Pepe's chip EV from the raise is 8,889.

If Pepe goes all in, villain would need to call 51,564. If he does that just 20% of the time - less than half as often as he calls the smaller raise - Pepe's chip EV is 12,891.

I like the bigger bet.

ICM plays into this, since each additional chip won is worth less than the chip won before it. Stacks are low, so we are probably near the bubble, or in the money. We don't have the information we need to do that calculation, and I'm not sure how to do it. I believe we'd need to use a paid-for ICM tool.

Click to expand...

Just for the curiosity, the field was something like 4500 or plus and at this point we were like between 1000-1100 playres left, money at 610 or close to that.

Thanks again Alex for always posting these interesting tools.

Best Regards

P.S. Nest time... I shove the river! lolz villain hand https://www.boomplayer.com/25410841_EF4CE84AA4

I like the over bet on the river but I don't like the slow play. I think if you bet on the flop you'll get a lot more value because you'll be building the pot on earlier streets. you have more Bluffs in your range on the flop than you do on the river so you'll get more calls on the flop.

mbrenneman0 said:

I like the over bet on the river but I don't like the slow play. I think if you bet on the flop you'll get a lot more value because you'll be building the pot on earlier streets. you have more Bluffs in your range on the flop than you do on the river so you'll get more calls on the flop.

Click to expand...

Playing it backwards from now I tend to agree with you but also with bud AviCKter that said about a delayed cbet on the turn.

Best Regards

PepeTurtle said:

Playing it backwards from now I tend to agree with you but also with bud AviCKter that said about a delayed cbet on the turn.

Best Regards

Click to expand...

Yeah its an interesting spot but in my experience delayed cbets get even more folds than flop cbets