$3.30 NLHE MTT: 1k GTD weird river all in on dry low board

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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$3.30 1kGTD

3rd position out of 15 remaining players, in the money
guaranteed payout $16.43, with 1st place paying ~ $318

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 3,500/7,000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 36.11 BB (VPIP: 21.54, PFR: 12.70, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, hands: 65)
UTG: 15.08 BB (VPIP: 12.00, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
UTG+1: 15.45 BB (VPIP: 29.35, PFR: 21.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 94)
MP: 28.6 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 68)
Hero (MP+1): 34.5 BB
CO: 6.68 BB (VPIP: 25.10, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 265)
BTN: 15.33 BB (VPIP: 20.34, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 61)
SB: 15.08 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 8<font color='red'>♦</font> 6<font color='red'>♦</font>

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (6.8 BB, 3 players) 7<font color='red'>♥</font> 2<font color='red'>♦</font> 5<font color='black'>♠</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, fold, BB calls 3 BB

Turn: (12.8 BB, 2 players) 7<font color='black'>♠</font>
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (12.8 BB, 2 players) 8<font color='red'>♥</font>
BB bets 31.01 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 29.4 BB and is all-in

BB shows 7<font color='black'>♣</font> 6<font color='black'>♠</font> (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 30%, Flop 56%, Turn 82%)
Hero shows 8<font color='red'>♦</font> 6<font color='red'>♦</font> (Two Pair, Eights and Sevens)
(Pre 70%, Flop 44%, Turn 18%)
BB wins 71.61 BB


The reason I called is because in order for him to do this as a value bet, he has to think I have a bluff catcher. He has no reason to think I have any kind of bluff catcher, so I think it would make more sense for him to bet smaller or induce a bluff from me. I think its much more likely that he thinks i have nothing to call with, and he can just get me off of any A high or worse, which most of my range here is ace high and definitely folds.

EDIT: i guess the board isnt that dry, but it doesnt seem to connect with either of our ranges all *that* well, although it definitely connects with his range better than mine.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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sorry, for some reason when i edited the thread, it messed up the formatting, reposting the hand below for an easier to read format:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 3,500/7,000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 36.11 BB (VPIP: 21.54, PFR: 12.70, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 65)
UTG: 15.08 BB (VPIP: 12.00, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
UTG+1: 15.45 BB (VPIP: 29.35, PFR: 21.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 94)
MP: 28.6 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 68)
Hero (MP+1): 34.5 BB
CO: 6.68 BB (VPIP: 25.10, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 265)
BTN: 15.33 BB (VPIP: 20.34, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 61)
SB: 15.08 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 8:diamond: 6:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (6.8 BB, 3 players) 7:heart: 2:diamond: 5:spade:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, fold, BB calls 3 BB

Turn: (12.8 BB, 2 players) 7:spade:
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (12.8 BB, 2 players) 8:heart:
BB bets 31.01 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 29.4 BB and is all-in

BB shows 7:club: 6:spade: (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 30%, Flop 56%, Turn 82%)
Hero shows 8:diamond: 6:diamond: (Two Pair, Eights and Sevens)
(Pre 70%, Flop 44%, Turn 18%)
BB wins 71.61 BB
 
H

HoRNaTioN

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sorry, for some reason when i edited the thread, it messed up the formatting, reposting the hand below for an easier to read format:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 3,500/7,000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 36.11 BB (VPIP: 21.54, PFR: 12.70, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 65)
UTG: 15.08 BB (VPIP: 12.00, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
UTG+1: 15.45 BB (VPIP: 29.35, PFR: 21.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 94)
MP: 28.6 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 68)
Hero (MP+1): 34.5 BB
CO: 6.68 BB (VPIP: 25.10, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 265)
BTN: 15.33 BB (VPIP: 20.34, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 61)
SB: 15.08 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 8:diamond: 6:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (6.8 BB, 3 players) 7:heart: 2:diamond: 5:spade:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, fold, BB calls 3 BB

Turn: (12.8 BB, 2 players) 7:spade:
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (12.8 BB, 2 players) 8:heart:
BB bets 31.01 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 29.4 BB and is all-in

BB shows 7:club: 6:spade: (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 30%, Flop 56%, Turn 82%)
Hero shows 8:diamond: 6:diamond: (Two Pair, Eights and Sevens)
(Pre 70%, Flop 44%, Turn 18%)
BB wins 71.61 BB



By raising only 2xBB preflop i think you leave it open for the SB and BB to call and huge range especially that deep in the tournament, and let them defend their blind. Anytime the blind calls you need to be cautious.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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the reason i opened to 2x is because of the 15bb stacks behind me, if i raise 2.5 or 3x and get rejammed on by the 15bb stacks, i have to fold and lose en extra .5bb 2x accomplishes the same thing only getting called slightly wider by the BB which is fine because then im playing post flop in position with a bigger SPR than i would if i had raised larger, so all those extra hands he calls with gives more value to the bluffs i can make postflop
 
H

HoRNaTioN

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With a bigger raise he would probably have let it go though. Risk vs reward.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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i think thats results oriented. imo 2x is a more efficient use of my chips. my question is the river call though
 
Socialpro29

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Not focusing on being results oriented here but that could be considered a loose open from MP1 especially when you include that there are re-jam stacks left to act this deep in a tourney. You have to be cautious cause the BB is getting a huge discount every hand this deep and a solid player will be defending a very wide range in this spot especially given the open size to start and the SB CC. As played it is a tough spot but i think given how the hand played out it is a fold. I didnt run any equity calculators but Villans range here is extremely wide but also capped and polarized. He either has a 7 here or air.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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right, yeah im definitely not saying he cant do this with a 7, im just wondering if he is more towards bluffs with more combos of air than combos of 7s
 
Socialpro29

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I think he has all combos of a 7 here ie 6 7, 7 8, 9 7, 10 7, 5 7 there is alot
 
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16clumsyandshy

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First, I think 2x open is standard at this stage of the tournament. No problem there.

As for the hand, I think I made a similar mistake in thinking today. I had a spot blind vs blind where the SB shove for 13 BB effective (he covered me by fAr). I called with A5o. I figured any A would be ahead. More and more I'm seeing that these large shoves are rarely weak. If this player was looking to bluff you with air, I think they are more likely to bet closer to a pot size bet, not overbet shove. I think to myself in this situation, "what am I supposed to have here?" For all villain knows, I could have AA. He doesn't care if I call his bet. I think I've seen several times before that overbets and over bet shoves at micros are most often for value. With your stack, you have time to wait for a better spot.
 
T

trent32la

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Open and open size are fine into tight opponents. If players in front are aggro this would be a fold.

Playing same way up until the river, at this level this is a snap fold because your opponent doesn't have enough bluffs in practice to take advantage of this sizing he's using. So, villain is likely using this exploitive sizing with a value hand hoping you won't "exploit" him by folding most of your range, which the vast majority of people won't do. It's a shove designed to look weak that in my experience is pretty much always a value hand. If your opponent does have a bluff then going something like 10-15bb accomplishes the same thing in his spot, so this 2.5x pot sizing is just trying to maximize value.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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thanks trent, spot on analysis.

I realize my mistake in this thinking is that I gave villain too much credit in being capable of bluffing in this spot with that sizing.
 
No1eJoker

No1eJoker

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I'm know that he has 7 ,you should fold on the river!!
 
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