$3.3 NLHE MTT Turbo: Clear fold on the river?

https://www.boomplayer.com/23860313_94C13C40CC

I'm not sure what to think of this hand... Stats of the villain 38 VPIP over 13 hands, AFq 57.

23 players left, so quite deep in the tourney.

sure fold

I wouldn't put him on the ace....no raise and just call when you raised. Think he had a pocket pair. Saw that you checked and figured he was good. anything from 1010, jj to kk. doubt the kings though. He would have re-raised, just my opinion.

Yuck. My first instinct here is fold. V's turn bet indicates he has some type of made hand or equity. In these games people are very capable of overplaying Ax and he has all 6x.

I'd also think some type of draw bets more than 1bb on this turn, so yeah I'm folding the river.

If you don't want to read my entire essay; spoiler: I probably make a crying call here.

generally, he either has a weak ace or you're good. and a weak ace totally makes sense; but missed hearts, missed straight draws and lower pocket pairs are out there too.

his stats can't really tell us too much with only 13 hands they're basically meaningless...I mean they do hint that he's a LAG which makes this more of a call....but basically only use that as a tie breaker when no other factors lead you to a decision.

His bet size leans me to believe he is slightly more likely to be making a value bet, but the thing is he could think he is value betting with a hand such as 88 or 99 here. If he had bet really small such as 1/4 pot I'd heavily believe it was a value bet but we'd be getting too good of odds to fold. If he overbet the pot I'd also think his bet size heavily leans towards the value side....and I'd fold due to terrible pot odds.

In this particular spot there is no easy answer. pot size river bets can mean value for some villains and bluffs for others and we don't have enough stats to help us differentiate.

but based mostly on hand range analysis I think you beat enough combos to make the call.

Thank you everybody for the analysis!

At least the result oriented part of me finds this to be a good fold as I got 6th in the tournament. Got kicked out AQ vs A3, he flopped two pairs.

missjacki said:

If you don't want to read my entire essay; spoiler: I probably make a crying call here.

generally, he either has a weak ace or you're good. and a weak ace totally makes sense; but missed hearts, missed straight draws and lower pocket pairs are out there too.

Click to expand...

Don't you think that he defends with some sixes? Or do you assume that just over 20BB is too short to defend?

sarniak said:

Don't you think that he defends with some sixes? Or do you assume that just over 20BB is too short to defend?

Click to expand...

yes, I do think that some (but not many) 6s are in his range. KK is in his range too...I'm just not terribly worried about it as it doesn't make up the bulk of his range.

at the end of the day, the BB can have pretty much anything. it's our job to put them on a range assign each combo a likelihood based on all of our incomplete knowledge.

in no way do I think this is an easy spot. it's a shit spot. I just end up calling here often enough and being right often enough.

for instance, if he bets half pot, it's an easy call for me. if he bets full pot its harder...but honestly more bluffy (just worse odds). for me, its specifically the pot sized bet that makes this a tough spot.