$22 NLHE MTT: PKO! how to prevent yourself from shitty spots

PKO 6max, 22$ buyin.
I hate the way I played this hand. Mostly I hate my turn bet, because I didnt thought how I'd react to a shove. Also, the stacksizes are quite weird for doing a raise on the flop with the FD, i think. How would you have played this Hand (from the beginning?). I think it is a mayor leak to speew in such spots and still dont realise equity for some reason.

888 Poker - 150/300 Ante 40 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

BTN: 101.73 BB (VPIP: 27.16, PFR: 24.18, 3Bet Preflop: 14.00, hands: 165)
Hero (SB): 103.35 BB
BB: 101.21 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 10.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 72)
UTG: 105.53 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 39)
CO: 69.63 BB (VPIP: 42.11, PFR: 21.05, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 19)

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.17 BB) Hero has J♣ Q♣

fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.58 BB, Hero calls 2.08 BB, fold

Flop: (6.83 BB, 2 players) T♥ 5♣ 7♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 3.42 BB, Hero raises to 10.25 BB, BTN calls 6.83 BB

Turn: (27.33 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets 18.22 BB, BTN raises to 88.77 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 63.77 BB

My two cents:

I think you're playing the flush draw too aggressively, compounded by the fact you are in the small blind and out of position.

When he calls your re-raise on the flop that makes me think he is not going away. So as played I'd have checked the turn, hoping to maybe be able to call off pretty light and see the river.

Flop chk/raise is good, i would go slightly larger tho:12bb.

I like barreling the turn, I would just choose a smaller sizing, one that allows us to realize our equity for cheaper:40% pot.

This is a KO, so you have to play more aggressive. 3-betting preflop is a good option here given the stack sizes. (C-betting oop of course..)

As played, on this flop, check call seems more viable, because when he continues facing your check raise is a sign that he has some overpairs on his range, top pair, and sets. Don't like your bet on the turn either, the guy is showing you he will not lay his hand down easily..

The thing is OOP you have to be the aggressor all the streets, you need to have a balance depending on your opponent and the stage of tournament.

Turn: (27.33 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets 18.22 BB, BTN raises to 88.77 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 63.77 BB


my thoughts center around this point. there is 45 in the pot and he gets 90 (making it 135) and you have to call about 70. this means you have to be right 1/3 times to be worthwhile.


how often do you make your flush plus how often do you hit a good over?
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flush is 9 outs and i would only count 3 of your over outs since villian probably has one of those two cards so you're looking at roughly 24% chance. take into account how much the knockouts are worth and i think you have to call here but the reason you're in this spot is the betting pattern earlier.
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villian had to call 7 into a 15 pot (or so) so he could do that too often, the bet needs to be bigger on the flop but at the same time the turn bet should be smaller to set the hook. you bet big enough that only hands better than you should stay along. if you were beat before that card you're still beat and if you were ahead before you're still ahead. so you'd want to size down to you continuation size rather than a sizing to eliminate parts of his range.
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I think check raising the flop is definitely fine, but I'm not so convinced this needs to be a continue on the turn. If we are looking for balance, I would probably use this combo, but the reason is a bit nuanced. But in general at these stakes I'd exploitatively remove more of my bluffs on the turn I think.

On this particular turn card, which pairs the board, our value combos are inherently reduced, and by a significant margin. Any two pairs we could have are cut dramatically, and we lose 2 combos of available sets. So this is a good spot to also stop betting with some of our bluffs.

When thinking about which draws to keep bluffing with, we'd want to keep the ones that fit these criteria:

1. Have the least SDV (not super relevant since at this point I'm not sure any of our draws actually HAVE SDV).

2. Have the most equity. So we'd want to keep any combo draws here first and foremost.

3. Block the hands we expect the villain to continue with. This can sometimes conflict with the first point, since if we have a pair + FD combo that blocks villain's continuing range, but also tends to have a LITTLE more SDV (vs say, other draws).

With our exact holding, QJ, we have basically no SDV, except in the weird instances where our villain holds a similar but weaker draw. So that favors continuing bluffing.

There are draws that hold more equity, like combo draws, but the fact that we have two overs MAY still be relevant - it's possible we could reach showdown against a one pair hand, connect with the river, and improve to the best hand. Although this almost points more to SDV than equity of our draw, since we won't want to continue barreling just because we make top pair on the river I don't think.

So far as blockers go, QJ isn't a bad hand to use because we do block some of the top pair holdings our villain would continue with.

All in all, if we only continue with our combo draws we are probably not bluffing "enough," so I think continuing with QJ probably makes sense, but again this is if we are trying to maintain some semblance of balance, which I'm not convinced is necessary at these stakes and in this situation.