$22 NLHE MTT: Overpair on scary river

This is a hand in pretty early stages of the Big $22. I play micro stakes only normally, but I won this ticket via Twitter. So a pretty big tourney for me. Partially the reason I'm posting this hand.

Didn't know too much of the villian, apart from a hand one or two hands before where I tried to bluff him in a pretty similar spot. I had AdTx on a low two diamonds flop, then a 9d on the turn. Barreled the flop and the turn. Eventually checked it down, he had sevens.

In this hand I tried to replicate the bet sizes I made in that hand on the flop and the turn, hoping he'd call me light. I feel like he could get to the river with a pretty wide range of hands, and he's likely to try to bluff me off the river after I checked it to him, especially *that* river. Can I ever fold? Does it scream flush draw or am I getting the right price to peel off a showdown?

poker stars $20+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds + t10 - 9 players - View hand 2985083
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t3664 M = 17.45
CO: t5342 M = 25.44
BTN: t7598 M = 36.18
SB: t4590 M = 21.86
BB: t12655 M = 60.26
UTG: t5226 M = 24.89
Hero (UTG+1): t4023 M = 19.16
UTG+2: t4181 M = 19.91
MP1: t2548 M = 12.13

Pre Flop: (t210) Hero is UTG+1 with Q :diamond: Q :spade:
1 fold, Hero raises to t169, 4 folds, BTN calls t169, 2 folds

Flop: (t548) 9 :diamond: 4 :spade: J :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets t232, BTN calls t232

Turn: (t1012) 6 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets t525, BTN calls t525

River: (t2062) T :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t824

Will post results later.

I think you should call the river always here as you have to win about 40% of the time. What hands does villain calls twice and bets river? Imo any J, hand like QT, T8, probably some flush draws (but i think he will raise some of his flush draws). Hand like 87 is less possible as he will fold on the turn. You should call as you beat a lot of his value and some of his bluffs, even if you will see two pair and flushes sometimes.

How does one win a ticked via twitter? I would like to win one too.
River is a call when you check you give him a chance to bluff and bet with value hands you beat. You are behind to a set of tens, JT and maybe 87 or a flush. I thinks a flush draw raises the flop a good portion of the times and 87 only gets there if he is a loose player. The range of hands that beat you is too narrow for you to fold.

Well played hand all the way around and great thought process. Bet sizes and river check are all in line and proper. The river on instincts feels like a crying call. It would be helpful to know more of villians tendencies especially sizing. But with limited info we have to do the best we can.

Knowing villain called down and checked back a one pair hand before makes me want to rule them out here. But maybe he's adjusting to your line and tendencies and changing his play. Tho more likely I would not be surprised to see J10 here.

Thanks for the input guys! Nice to hear you agree with my crying call, at least. Afterwards I thought I may have wanted to bet the turn a little bit bigger, just to chase away his draws.

Anyway. The results. Can't find the hand itself anymore, so I can't get them all fancily converted I'm afraid. He turned over Th9h for a rivered two pair. Last thing I'd have put him on, and same for you guys it seems. Either way, frustrating river. Just not the way I first thought it'd be. I guess I'm happy I got the pot to over 1K as an 88% favourite.

For good measure: I did eventually double up back to 4.4K, then went out with AA vs AQo on a queen high flop. 86% favourite. Frustrating. But the tourney was free, I guess.

joeisi said:

How does one win a ticked via twitter? I would like to win one too.

Click to expand...

https://twitter.com/PokerStars. They've got about two or three giveaways every week, although they're quite pathetic mostly. I won this ticket by counting cards. Sometimes they make emoji rebuses out of poker phrases. Marvellous. They were more fun a some months ago: https://twitter.com/PokerStars/status/755433370541318144. Shame they took away that format. But yeah, free stuff!

I would bet more on the turn, about 650. Theres important thing - we have blockers. We are blocking some spades combos, some KQ, Q8 which got straight. That being said, we may call here, but, look at his river sizing - its like light value-bet with two pairs+ at least. Which check/call check/call holdings we can beat? Only pair of jacks ( often pair of jacks will check behind/bluff here, sometimes check/raise flop).
Okay, this 10 of spades completed almost all possible draws which calling flop and turn. I guess around 80% of cases we will face with straight/flush, sometimes with slowplayed sets and two pairs. Obv fold.