$22 NLHE MTT: $$22 NLHE MTT: Planning to bluff on which river cards?

OK, so I'm in the $22 Super Tuesday - there are 26 people left. I'm in about 5th spot and I really don't like the line I took on this hand...

Villain opens UTG + 2 to 2X The BB with 40BB behind. Villain has shown that he is a very strong player, and his online results confirm that he is crushing these stakes.

I have 60BB - have also been aggressive - but have been targeting the weak players at the table - and have steered clear of this player thus far.

Action folds to Hero in BB with AsTh - Hero calls.
I think this is standard - not comfortable with inflating the pot by 3 betting oop, and its too tight a fold getting more than 2:1.

Flop is Ks Qc 8s

I check.
Villain bets 1/3 pot. At this point I have a gut shot to the Jack and a backdoor flush draw and am aware that I can occasionally have the best hand. I float with intentions of taking the pot away if villain slows down.

Turn is 7s
This is where i question my play: I decide to lead the Turn a bit more than half pot. My initial thinking was that I didn't want to play the hand check- call flop, check - call turn and check - fold river when i miss. Plus when I hit my hand after calling turn - my flush is super face up and i'm not going to extract any value on river by leading or by checking. So i don't like check- calling turn.

So I lead the turn for a bit more than half pot. Villain calls.

At this point my question becomes, given this line what cards do I continue barrelling on? What hands can I expect Villain to fold?
Obviously I'm barrelling all spades and Jacks (12 cards)
Do I barrel a river K? what about a 7? what about a Q? what about a 2?


I'm thinking now that a check - raise on turn would seem stronger? Thoughts? If i check -raise and villain calls does the range of cards I should barrel river on change?

Bear in mind that depending on my river sizing (villain has a 1.5 SPR) I can be overbet shoving, or betting large which is placing significant pressure on Villains stack. Based on my opponent, I do not expect him to call me down with a weak one pair (unless of course he has a good read on my bluff/ my bets make no sense).

So in sum:
1. Float on flop with decent equity (or should i fold / or even check raise flop??)
2. Lead on turn vs check - call vs check - raise (I'm leaning check raise now?)
3. Given i lead / raise turn --> what rivers do I barrel / give up on
4. Is this line credible that you would expect villain to fold Kx on? TT? AA? (what hands can villain have and what can he fold?)

Preflop is standard. Flop I like calling here vs such a small sizing.

Once I saw what the turn card was, I was going to reply "lead turn", however I see you did and I definitely like leading this turn. We can fold out villain's air/mid pair hands and still have decent equity with a nut flush draw and a gutshot.

As for the river, I'm overbet jamming if a 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,T, or J without a spade hit the river. If a K/Q/A without a spade hit the river I am checking. If any spade rivers, I'm going 2/3rd pot.

Your line is certainly credible here, and villain can't really expect you to show up with a hand like AsTx here. A thinking player will know you have very few "bluffs" when taking this life.

@trent32la
If we are bluffing almost every card in the deck (except the remaining 8 kings queens and aces) then we have way too many bluffs in our range. I find it hard to believe that villain will find a fold with AK or KJ here if we lead the turn and then shove river on the 2 of clubs? For that matter on any card below a 6? If we are shoving those hands (2's through 5's) we are basically saying we turned a flush or we have a set of 8's or 7's. And would these hands really shove? I think we'd be betting smaller for value (2/3 pot or something)

That's why I was inclined to bet both my bluffs and value the same here at 2/3 pot. I was planning to continue on Q's ( he shouldn't have too many Q's except KQ that bets flop), 7's, 6's 9's T's J's (representing mainly hit straight draws, or trip sevens). So if we check give up on a 2 3 4 or 5 - which we don't really represent - then we balance our bluffs with our value making it a lot tougher for villain to find a call with AK, or KJ or AA