£200 NLHE MTT: River bluff sizing on missed draws

Early stage live MTT, full ring, with ante

UTG+2: Not much read, stack ~75BB
HJ: good LAG, won several hands without showdown, stack >100BB
BTN (Hero): tight passive image, stack ~90BB

UTG+2 open raised to 3BB, HJ called, BTN called with 7♣6♣, all others folded

Flop (11.75BB, 3 players)
J♣4♥3♣

UTG+2 bet 3BB, HJ called and BTN called.

Turn (20.75BB, 3 players)
T♥
UTG+2 bet 3BB, HJ raised to 7.25BB, BTN called and UTG+2 folded

River (38.25BB, 2 players)
2♥

HJ checked. BTN bet 16.25BB. HJ called.

Questions:
1. Would you fold/raise on the turn or flop?
2. How much would you bet on the river or just give up?

I chose to bet ~40% pot to get opponent folding A high, Jx, middle pairs and also other busted draws, although I expect he would bluff on the river with busted draws on the river as well.

On the turn you have nothing and no draw at all to win this hand and with all this betting going on what hand are you trying to represent? While re-raising may win you the pot here what are the chances the raiser and 3-beter both fold to you and if you are called with no hand no draw that will improve to something that will win if you are called here. The way this hand played out I would have folded on the turn.

As for the river bluff, I think your bluff was to small here. While some players will see a smaller bet as strength you said this was against a good LAG. He may see through it. Also think about the type of hand he could have here. He could have called with JT and worse QT of hearts and rivered the flush. Also the way this hand played out I would not have put you on the back door flush based on your image as you said it was. His range for the 3 bet makes it unlikely he is folding to a river bluff and I would have checked behind and gave up.

i'm folding that raise on the turn.

i'm not even sure you'd have pot odds on that with only 12 outs (if i'm counting right) against someone with a made hand.

I like the way you kept with it till the river. Suited middle connectors, especially when they can pull off a straight as well, are great.

If you don't get it on the river, just stop. That duece can mean quite a lot. It was a bad run, but really calling with 3xBB doesn't make for that bad of a loss.

I like the play.

Preflop is fin obviously.

Flop, normally I would say that call is fine, because UTg2 and HJ could have sets, so raise might not be very good option, but in this instance UTG2 bet very small on a draw heavy board, so I would say you should have went ahead and raised it. And raise heavy, like 14bb, you want them to fold, but at the same time you are not afraid of anything.

As played, on the turn, it's tricky. I think raising is definitely not a mistake, but here calling is good too, because HJ's range might contain very strong hands like two pair or sets. Since there is only river left, it won't be a mistake for him to bet with them this small. Call is good.

River, it is obligatory bluff, because you have no showdown value and you block nuts 56. So you should represent nut straight and bet pot. HJ, most likely has top or second pair, you can't expect him to fold them by betting 40%. By betting pot, you can expect very high fold %, because his range is capped.

Pre-flop is definitely a spot to consider a squeeze. You have position and a hand that will play well post flop.

A raise on the flop would be reasonable.

I think you have to bet larger on the river if you choose to bluff. I don't think less than half pot is going to fold out any jacks. You can have straights and flushes, and you want to bet an amount that looks like you're trying to get value from a reasonably strong range (one that raised the turn).