$20 NLHE MTT: Maximizing Value with a Set

A

AlexTheOwl

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iPoker - 40/80 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 61.12 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 12)
MP: 98.87 BB (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 36.36, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (CO): 66.12 BB
BTN: 64.12 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB: 60.75 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 68.62 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♣6♠

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) 2♣6♦3♥
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (9 BB, 3 players) T♦
SB checks, BB bets 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4.5 BB, SB calls 4.5 BB

River: (22.5 BB, 3 players) 5♥
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 11.25 BB, SB calls 11.25 BB, BB calls 11.25 BB

Hero shows 6<font color='black'>♣</font> 6<font color='black'>♠</font> (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 49%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)
SB shows T<font color='red'>♥</font> Q<font color='red'>♥</font> (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 51%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 56.25 BB

Early in a 6-handed MTT on ignition / Bovada / bodog / Bodog88.

What do you think about the check on the flop, and just calling on the turn? Should I have bet bigger on the river?

I am generally too passive post-flop, wondering what lines others would take here.
 
okeedokalee

okeedokalee

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You need to raise 1/2 pot on the flop with your set, you had to callers preflop chances are one or both players have a big pair, they will defend and you have position.
When the BB donk bets you a raise by you of 3/4 pot will test his enthusiasm for his hand.There is a chance he will go all-in with AA or KK and the SB may join in.
If you are called and the hand goes to the river you must try and get their chips all-in if they bet.
There were are 128 BBs available from 2 very loose opponents, go for them.
They were both loose players
If you like your hand then you must bet it.
 
thatguy6793

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I actually think you played it pretty well, on the not real scary flop I think checking is good since you don't want them to fold without giving more chips lol. I think the best way to play a set is if the board isn't to wet and you have the highest possible set is to let the v kinda dictate the betting (i.e. call the raises) or go straight for check raising, that way you know you're getting the most chips out of them every hand. Ideally you're gonna want to face top pair or two pair on a dry board and that will usually get the most value for a set every time. But yeah I think you played it really solid even for a bit of a slowplay and probably got the most value you could have because a bet postflop would have probably made them fold imo.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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You need to raise 1/2 pot on the flop with your set, you had to callers preflop chances are one or both players have a big pair, they will defend and you have position.

Chances are that neither of them have an overpair.

The sample size is very small, but they both have high VPIPs.
They called a raise, but players with high VPIPs typically call with a wide range from the blind.
This is especially true for the BB, who has the equity to call with a wide range because of the size of the pot after the SB calls.

If we estimate that they are both calling 33% of their hands here, then their ranges are [22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q8s+,JTs,A2o+,K7o+,QTo+].
The range of pairs that are overcards to this board, [77+], is 4% of all hands.
So for each of them, there is a (4/33) = 12% chance they have an overpair in their hands.
Since there are two opponents, we can say that there is just a 24% chance that one or more of them has an overpair.

However, the chance is actually lower than 24%. Players with big overpairs would often 4-bet pre-flop, but neither of them did.


When the BB donk bets you a raise by you of 3/4 pot will test his enthusiasm for his hand.There is a chance he will go all-in with AA or KK and the SB may join in.

The BB, whose PFR of 33% makes him look aggressive, bets the turn after everyone checks on the flop.

What does this mean?
He may have an overpair, any pair, a straight or a gutshot draw (not likely), or a set.
He may also have nothing. He saw the flop check around, and decided that probably no one has a strong hand, and a bet will probably take the pot down.
The most likely reality is that he has a pair or nothing.
If you are called and the hand goes to the river you must try and get their chips all-in if they bet.

They don't bet. If they have a strong hand, this is their last chance to get value for it. They don't have much reason to think that I will bet, I've just checked and called so far. So it would be foolish of them to go for a checkraise here.

If they have anything at all (chances are the SB, at least, does) it doesn't look like a big hand.

Will they call a big bet with a mediocre hand? In the few hands I have played with them, I've been playing tightly.
If I bet big here, they should believe that I have a big hand, and fold. Whether they will actually fold, I don't know.

There were are 128 BBs available from 2 very loose opponents, go for them.
They were both loose players
If you like your hand then you must bet it.

I am open to arguments that I was too tight here.
But I think getting max value on this hand is more complicated than saying big hand, loose players, so bet big.
 
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Andrew Popov

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Perhaps - well played. Overly aggressive game on the flop can scare opponents who do not have a ready strong hand. You should let them get something - your set is well ahead on that flop.
 
oakthyago

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i 'm my opinion you should had bet the turn as well as the flop. the straight draw came in the river and I don't know if I would bet this river knowing that only one four could give the villain the victory. What makes the villain keep betting in pots like this? I would say the straight draw...

I glade you won this pot but playing with good players you probable would lose all your stack
 
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i 'm my opinion you should had bet the turn as well as the flop. the straight draw came in the river and I don't know if I would bet this river knowing that only one four could give the villain the victory. What makes the villain keep betting in pots like this? I would say the straight draw...

I glade you won this pot but playing with good players you probable would lose all your stack

A straight or straight draw is unlikely here. And if someone has a straight draw then I am glad they called the turn bet.

Both players called a pre-flop raise. They have wide ranges, so a call by 54s is possible, especially by the BB, who is getting a good price. But 54s is just a tiny part of their wide range. They probably fold 54o pre-flop.

If they have any kind of a straight draw they have to have a 4 in their hands. What cards with a 4 call pre-flop? A4, 44, maybe 54s, maybe K4. The rest probably folds pre-flop. Hands including a 4 are a tiny part of their range.

So a straight draw is not likely. A pair, two pair, a set, or overcards make up most of the opponent's ranges.

But let's assume one or more of them have a straight draw. The only possible kind of straight draw they have is a one-out draw. The only card that helps them is a 5. By the "rule of two", they have just an 8% chance of making that straight on the river. If anyone is betting for value or calling on the turn with hopes of making a straight, they are being foolish.

So three unlikely things would all need to happen for me to lose to a straight that was completed on the river. First, someone needs a hand with a 4 in it. Second, they need to have invested chips on the turn in a one-out draw. Third, that one-out draw would need to hit.

You say I would probably have lost my stack to better players. But players who call a lot of hands pre-flop, and who put money in pots with one-out draws, are the kinds of players I would lose to here.

I made at least one mistake in the hand. I'll say what it is, after I wait a while to see if there are more comments.
 
oakthyago

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hello Dear Alex, after I post this opinion of the straight I start try to figure out the range for the opponents and I have to agree with what you told. It is really unlikelly to the villains have a 4 on his hand and the 45s only possible with the BB.

But I am still not sure if check the turn was a good strategy, for sure this action showed some weakness to the villain that call on the river. The hero in this situation really extract value for his set.
 
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Hi Alex, I am new to this forum so as well to hand analysis so forgive me if I understand it wrong.

The pre-flop action is standard; you raise to 3 BB and the SB and BB call with a very wide range of hands looking at the stack ratio to BB and the VPIP's.

The way you played the turn gives them a free card to the river to complete any draw that they might have had without gaining any chips (if the BB would not have bluffed on the turn, which you cannot count on)

The standard post-flop action would have been that you would c-bet the turn with half the pot size. If you always make this move the other players cannot determine if you made your set or not and they will call you most of the time especially with overcards etc.

the savest moment to earn chips is pre- and post flop. the closer to the river the riskier it becomes.:cool:
 
terryk

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I would of raised the turn,as the heart puts a FD out there,but other then that,well played;)
 
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AlexTheOwl

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The way you played the turn gives them a free card to the river to complete any draw that they might have had without gaining any chips (if the BB would not have bluffed on the turn, which you cannot count on)

But I am still not sure if check the turn was a good strategy, for sure this action showed some weakness to the villain that call on the river. The hero in this situation really extract value for his set.

I would of raised the turn,as the heart puts a FD out there,but other then that,well played;)

All of you make good arguments about the turn, thank you for your thoughts.

When I called the BB's bet on the turn, I thought that there was a good chance that the BB had either nothing or a weak hand. I wanted to keep him in the game, so that I could try to get more chips from him on the river.

But if I raised the turn, and either of the two players called, then I could make a bigger bet on the river. Raising the turn might end the hand, but it might lead to me winning a bigger pot.

And although the odds are against flush or straight draws being completed on the river, it is possible. So I would want my opponents to call a turn raise, but it is not all bad if they fold.

I think raising the turn is debatable.

I made a clear mistake on the river. The SB probably has either at least top pair, or a busted flush draw. He called on the turn, even after the BB bet and I called.
My river bet was only half the pot size.
If he has a busted flush draw he would fold to almost any bet, and if he has top pair or better he would call a pot sized bet. I should have made a pot sized bet.
 
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