$2.50 PLO8 MTT Deep Stacked Turbo: Bustout Hand - PLO8 - Your opinions please.

Okay, so I final tabled the $2.50 PLO8 multi-entry (max. 3 entries - I entered just once). I late-regged (don't remember how late, but it was a few levels in, so probably about 30 minutes or so. However, that's not relevant to the hand that ultimately busted me from the tournament.

Blinds were 5k/10k (no antes). I was UTG with just over 54k. Here are stack sizes:

SB: 278k (big chip leader) - posted SB
BB: 62.9k - posted BB
Myself: 54.3k
Cutoff: 86.9k
Button: 77.2k

I am dealt Ac Kd Jh Jc so I have nut flush possibilities. I min-raised to 20k, and action folded around to the BB who effectively put me all in. My obvious read is 4 low cards, and with PLO8, there's ALWAYS a high hand, and not always a low, so I figure I'm not in bad shape, heads-up with a chance to double up.

So I call. As expected, opponent has Ad 2s 3s Ts

I ran these hands through an O8 odds calculator and this is what I got.

Probably of my scooping: 34%; Opponent: 31%
Probably of high for me: 69%; Opponent: 31%
Probably of low for me: 0%; Opponent: 56%
EV for me: .52%; Opponent: .49%

So overall, I don't hate his/her call, but I am liking my chances at this point.

Board runs out 9d 7s 3h 6h Td so my opponent scoops with 2 pair and knocks me out of the tournament.

Now, should I have folded and wait for a better spot though knowing I'm getting a little short. These type of hands tend to have pretty good value late in tournaments and I have played them and been on the winning side of these types of situations before. I guess the only thing different I could have done was just make a pot size raise, though possibly, there's no difference in the outcome.

Or is this just variance and my play wasn't terrible?

Here's a screenshot of my cash. Pretty good ROI for a single bullet.

yep snap it nh. once you open you cannot fold since we already nearly have half our stack in.. dw too much about it.

WiZZiM said:

yep snap it nh. once you open you cannot fold since we already nearly have half our stack in.. dw too much about it.

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So you wouldn't have open folded either then? My primary consideration here was if I were to fold and then be in the big blind next, I'm going to be last to act pre-flop, and to me, there is a higher likelihood of having a multi-way pot. Even if I got a hand like AAxx or A2xx, my EV in a multi-way pot is lower.

By being first to act, and with a hand like that, if I open raised (and I probably should have potted instead of min-raised), there's less of a chance it would have been a multi-way pot, because aside from the chip leader, the other stacks would need a much better hand to call, thus putting the pressure on them.

Just like in Hold'em, you're shoving hands like KQ/KJ but not calling an all-in with those hands.

yeah i get it in for sure, but i'm not really a PLO8 player at all. I've won a few things at PLO but i wouldn't consider myself very good. However i get it in here almost always and i'd probably have shipped my stack in much earlier than this point trying to get a big stack of chips.

However using logic it all points to a raise/call cos we have no stack, blinds are massive and we're pretty much always flipping in these games as your equity calcs show. I'm interested to see however how the best hand does vs the worst. or the best possible hand villians can call with vs our hand. But in the past the equities run pretty much the same as far as im aware, meaning we're almost always just flipping here, meaning we can get it in much looser since we still have FE on our side before we make our preflop move.

I would pot it preflop to maximize my fold equity.

Raise/Call is a better move for when you want action (like AA24). In this spot taking down the blinds is your primary concern, not necessarily doubling up on a coin flip.

Either way, I doubt it mattered to the outcome whether you raised or potted preflop as the BB is always gonna call or raise when he holds A23x.

There's no way I'm open folding this. Yes, you'd prefer always to have a 2way (Hi/Lo) hand in a split pot game but when the table is short handed the proper strategy is to value high cards (as you stated there is always a high hand and not always a low hand).

I really bad in plo hi lo, but your stack only 5bb, you really have nuts hand and blockers that villain not very often will have like pairs AA or KK,,, So easy shove, and I think you were just unlucky, it a good game from your side.

missjacki said:

I would pot it preflop to maximize my fold equity.

Raise/Call is a better move for when you want action (like AA24). In this spot taking down the blinds is your primary concern, not necessarily doubling up on a coin flip.

Either way, I doubt it mattered to the outcome whether you raised or potted preflop as the BB is always gonna call or raise when he holds A23x.

There's no way I'm open folding this. Yes, you'd prefer always to have a 2way (Hi/Lo) hand in a split pot game but when the table is short handed the proper strategy is to value high cards (as you stated there is always a high hand and not always a low hand).

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That was the only thing I was thinking I could have done differently (potting pre-flop), and with the dynamics of the table, the outcome was not going to be any different because with a hand like A23x, folding would be a -ev play long-term, especially when you're heads-up.

I found myself in an interesting spot earlier in the tournament with A2xx (I don't exactly remember the last two cards), but it was a multi-way pot with a couple of all-ins pre-flop. I was in the big blind on that hand so I got to see all this happen before having to commit any chips. In that spot, I would have been the 4th player in and all-in. I decided to wait for a better spot and fold, and it was the right play because I would have busted out.

I'm less inclined to play a multi-way pot with that much committed pre-flop because I feel that I lose any edge I feel I have post-flop. Now, had it been limped pre, or had the two others not go nuts pre, I'd have played.

I'm glad that I am not the only one who would have done almost exactly what I did, though next time, I'll pot pre. It makes the decision to call by my opponents a little more difficult.

Thanks for the input.