$2.20 NLHE MTT Turbo: Top pair facing pot bet OOP

pokerstars - 200/400 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 18.44 BB
UTG: 16.14 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 21)
UTG+1: 35.24 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 21)
MP: 12.3 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP+1: 57.06 BB (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 21)
MP+2: 7 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 21)
CO: 74.29 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BTN: 4.32 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
SB: 7.39 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 21)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has J♦ Q♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (5.63 BB, 2 players) J♥ 8♠ 6♣
Hero checks, CO bets 5.63 BB Hero ??


What do you when facing flop bet OOP, do you take this pot bet as overly strong or weak? Villian has tenancies to pot flop and has a 100% cbet over 21 hands. Is my kicker strong enough to consider shove over his bet? Is my check on the flop a mistake?

Disgusting spot, check on flop is fine and we really shouldn't have a leading range here give SPR and board texture. Checking flop allows villain to bet all of his air.

I can't say I'm folding in the moment, but I think QJ is a fold here. This pot bet just screams strength and villain hasn't been a maniac over 21 hands, hard to believe he's going to pot bet AK/AQ etc here.

Flop checks fine. Yeah its a strange bet, I don't think he would do that with a really strong hand but he may have a fair piece of that board and/or he may be throwing his weight around with his large stack but you've only invested 1BB so I would fold with that stack size and position.

I agree with both,
I basically put him on a range of 910,J9,J10, Considering he was in the cut off with this pot bet I didn't expect him to want to see a turn etc..

I called down and he has AA xD

I think you can go either way... the sample size is small to be sure what he is doing but its either clear strength or a strong draw, of course you dont do great against either but you can call 1 decide turn but it is a lot of your stack too. I guess if youre defending QJ that is one of the bets flops for you and you would be folding near the top of your range. Weird spot.

Yeah it's a tricky one, without a decent sample size we have to go on majority tenancies and I would assume these pot bets on a dry ish board would normally be very strong. A tight fold would probably be our best bet here. (I just never believe them)

Let's start with your observation about C-bet, that means he is a clear aggressor, who wants to put pressure. From the co if he's got AJ probably he would go with a little bit more than 2BB bet (what is your observation of his preflop raises?). Your hand is very strong. No flush draw and the streight draw could happen with T9 on his cards, which I don't think will be enough for that. Maybe your check indication gave him more confidence to make the bluff, adding the fact that you are pretty much short with around 15-16 BB stack. So putting 1/3 of your stack on the table, he knows that you wouldn't play without something.
Probably he's got A or K, but I don't believe that he connected with J, could be with 8.

What is the best play here? I would suggest pot bet reraise, because if he got 6, 8 or lower pair maybe he would call it and your chances to take those blinds from him are better than go all in.

But however AA is a great hand here and I am sure he put a prayer or to for you to have J in your cards.

Yeah my check on the flop was to induce a bet so I could check raise. His pot bet kinda threw me off and slowed me down to just calling (a blank turn I shove, 910QKA I re evaluate)

I was thinking AA when he makes this play hoping I'm checking top pair OOP, but still thought his play has more bluffs/weird draws then value.