$2.20 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: Bubble Decision

theANMATOR

theANMATOR

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500gtd Turbo10 on ACR
Fast structure with very aggressive play throughout the entire event.

Numbers are not exact - all from memory.

Approx. 55 players remain from a total field of 500 not counting rebuys.

Money bubble pops at 50. Min cash is approximately $3.50.
Up top $110.


Blinds 400/800, anties 100?
I'm on the button with Ks/Tc. Currently top 15 in chips approximately 55k.

CO 3x opens. CO has me covered by about 15k in chips.
CO is loose in LP. Tendencies = opens in LP 90% of hands. Always opens for 3x or more. Cbets 90% of hands after opening from LP.

I call the open planning to continue with any pair vs CO because of his over aggressiveness in LP.

BB defends.
I have no notes on BB - other than the most recent hands, he has not been overly aggressive. We have only played 5-6 hands together at this point on this table. I saw no showdown from the one hand he was involved in. He called a min-raise and folded on the flop.
My initial thought is he will be calling here with any Ace, and connectors, and possibly any two broadway cards.
BB and my chip stack are nearly identical. He has me by about 2 bb total.

Flop
KcJhTs.
Two pair for me.

CO cbets 1/2 pot. Approx. 3650
I make the easy call planning to call down all the way to river. The board is super wet however - I'm going with my plan with two pair vs CO's overly aggressive tendencies.

BB shoves!! Wow didn't expect that.
CO folds.

For the sake of proper decision making, 1st place payout is approximately half of my ACR bankroll.

What is opponent shoving with in this spot that I beat?
Any pair with Ace kicker? I suspect an oop 3bet would have come from any A/T, A/J, and certainly A/K. So I do not put him on those hands.
Is opponent donk shoving any Ace in this spot? Donk shoving any pair, any King? Without history with this opponent, making this assumption is folly in my opinion.

Other possible hands opponent could be shoving here that I beat. T/J, Q/J, Q/T, 9/T, 8/9, K/9, J/9. That is quite a lot of combos.

Hands that have me toast that may not have been 3bet preflop.
Q/9 is the only hand that has me toast here - that was not 3bet. Any pocket pair JJ, TT of course KK would be 3bet - plus I have blockers to all but TT. So those are out of the question. This is assuming this player is not a passive player that would only flat A/Q. Is A/Q a flat in the BB in this situation? I believe not.


1. Call - because I have a very strong hand and I'm playing to win, regardless of the situation, and how sloppy wet the board is. I'm not playing to min-cash, or survive - this decision and all others are ALL-or-NOTHING decisions.
Even though I have a healthy stack and could still make a strong run, this IS THE decision of this tournament for me. Reward out weighs the risk?


2. Fold - because I will still have a healthy stack and can make a more informed decision in a better spot after the bubble has popped. I have no information on the opponent - so it is simply a coin flip luck spot. I have a strong hand here but I know nothing about the opponent. Is the opponent committing ICM suicide - or is he leveraging ICM to his advantage here? Opponent could be shoving with one pair and Ace kicker, although unlikely, I suspect that hand would have re-raised preflop. I believe I'm a solid player and if I choose to fold I can continue to play well and still make FT.



What say you?
 
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fundiver199

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I think, this is a fold, mainly because of your stack size and the fact, two made straights are possible. There are 16 combos of each of those, which mean, that the value of other made hands goes down tremendously. With a set its probably a sigh-call, because you have a better chance to boat up. But with two pair I think, you can find a better spot, and you have not yet invested any significant portion of your stack.
 
theANMATOR

theANMATOR

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I think, this is a fold, mainly because of your stack size and the fact, two made straights are possible. There are 16 combos of each of those, which mean, that the value of other made hands goes down tremendously. With a set its probably a sigh-call, because you have a better chance to boat up. But with two pair I think, you can find a better spot, and you have not yet invested any significant portion of your stack.

Thanks for your input fundiver. It is refreshing when my decision aligns with your thoughts.

I ended up folding. Although I thought there were a gob sack more combos opponent could have that I was beating, I didn't have any info on the player, and being in the late game I gave in to the notion the player might be decent, and not be shoving with A/x or those combinations I was in fact beating.

I also said that - I have two pair - but I think I can find a better spot where I have more info about my decision and have more advantages.

I ended up folding, then after the money bubble popped, I doubled up with KKs. I was one of the top chip leaders 1-5 and then two players shoved and I had AA in LP. I called and ended up having the loosing hand and was crippled.
Ended up busting out in 18th with pocket 99s. I think it was a good run, and I think I made the correct decision there. But it was still in my mind the following morning/afternoon. :)

Thanks again.
 
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ibetmyho

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I would never flat k10o there. If you know the guy is raising very wide you should 3bet him and win the pot pre flop a very high % of the time.
K10o is a great hand to be 3betting with, as it contains relevant blockers and has some post flop play ability whilst not being strong enough to flat.
In stronger fields you will often get squeezed and you will be burning chips by flatting weak holdings.

As you played it, I would 100% raise the flop, you have a vulnerable hand and as you have said the original opener cbets far too much.
Once you flat I would cry call the BB shove. You have under repped your hand by calling and the BB will have many pair + straight draw combos but also the possibility of a just a King or a worse 2 pair in J10.
 
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fundiver199

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There is some merit in flatting on BTN though especially against a larger raise size. You have the best seat at the table, you are getting good pot odds because of the blinds and antes, and you keep your variance lower. Professional tournament players dont always play 3-bet or fold preflop, if streamed games are anything to go by.

Sure KTo is not the best hand in the world, but that is also the case, if we 3-bet. And we are on BTN and facing a CO open from someone, who play far to many hands. This matter, because if we flop a top pair, we will not always be dominated, and he will be bluffing a lot.
 
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ibetmyho

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There is some merit in flatting on BTN though especially against a larger raise size. You have the best seat at the table, you are getting good pot odds because of the blinds and antes, and you keep your variance lower. Professional tournament players dont always play 3-bet or fold preflop, if streamed games are anything to go by.

Sure KTo is not the best hand in the world, but that is also the case, if we 3-bet. And we are on BTN and facing a CO open from someone, who play far to many hands. This matter, because if we flop a top pair, we will not always be dominated, and he will be bluffing a lot.


It's always better to 3bet in these spots with these marginal holding. For one you will win the pot pre flop so often and will add chips without ever having to see a flop. Also by 3betting you will price out the blinds and often get the hand heads up with the benefit of having position and also the betting initiative post flop.

By flatting we also then run the risk of getting squeezed by the blinds which probably isn't a concern at lower stakes but it's always a risk.
 
Jon Poker

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With the bubble only 5 people away I am just folding KTo - no need for me to get involved and risk getting dinged or busting when I am all but guaranteed to make the money. That being said if the opener is as loose as you say they are if you are going to play KT then I would be 3betting it in position - we are doing this mainly as a squeeze and typically are not thrilled to be playing post flop.

Anyhow, we decide to get involved and we flop top and bottom pair on a super connected board for a raised pot...this is BAD. Two pair always seems to look soooooo good and yet it always seems to find a way to lose. I would definitely look to pot control and check/call down here and just get to showdown. When the BB check shoves here all hell breaks loose...they could certainly be doing this with a combo draw of a Q with a pair, they could have KJ in which case we are CRUSHED, TT is in their flatting range as well though I think pairs above that all 3bet preflop. The most obvious hand we dont want to see would be Q9 or AQ and both are entirely possible from our BB.

All this being said I think it is way more likely we would be up against KJ, or Qx of some sorts and to be honest, at this point in the game, there is no need for us to be taking a chance here even if we are ahead. On the bubble like this we should be very conservative and only calling off with some very strong hands. The point is when we do call and we find out the BB has KQ - then we are in good shape but also have to fade several outs that will be detrimental to our current position in the tournament if our opponent ends up winning. In the end, its simply a risk we dont have to take. Just fold the KTo and dont put yourself in this spot.

There is a difference between playing to win and making poor decisions on the bubble - dont confuse the two. If this hand had taken place after the bubble burst - I would probably call this one off simply because we are ahead of soooooo much they could have and if we lose the hand we are down but not out - whereas if we lose while the bubble hasn't burst then everyone at the table is now waiting for us to go out and will be targeting our short stack.

Hope some of this helps
 
rj_montana

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This is a spot where my play would vary based on BB's stack size. With BB covering us I would also find a reluctant fold. If he represented 50% of my stack I would call, 60% even and then the decision really gets tough at 70%+
 
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fundiver199

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With the bubble only 5 people away I am just folding KTo - no need for me to get involved and risk getting dinged or busting when I am all but guaranteed to make the money.

This is a good point. We are sitting on a huge 70BB stack, so we are far from being in any kind of danger of getting blinded down. This mean, its totally reasonable to take off some marginal spots, especially when we are not in the blinds, and we are not first to enter the pot either. There is not much upside in playing KTo even against a wide range and even in position, so why not just fold and wait for a better hand, or for those 5 people to bust. Maybe we are giving up 0,05BB on average, but we protect ourself from getting into sticky situation, where we could end up getting coolered or make a huge mistake.
 
moulan7

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I fold preflop, but as played I believe that villain has Q9 :p.
I guess every KK, JJ, TT, AK, AQ or even possibly AJ more likely 3bet preflop.
BB checks and shoves against 2 people. No flush draw or anything.
At the very best he might shoving with JT but most of the times I think he has better than that here.
Yeah yeah I'm 100% sure he has Q9 xD or KJ.
I fold too, but again I prefer fold preflop.
 
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