$2.20 NLHE MTT: QQ facing 4bet Deep in MTT

JohnBoyWWFC

JohnBoyWWFC

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So, this was a big hand for me last night in a MTT. 5000 runners and we are down to 16. It may be important to note that finishing here would win me $30, 9th pays $80 and 1st gets $1570, so basically, very steep payouts. Here's the hand:

Poker Stars - $2.00+0.20 Tournament (#376203383) - Blinds: 15,000/30,000 +3,750 Ante, No Limit Hold'em (8 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t2,167,899
BB Hero: t1,099,179
UTG: t596,140
UTG+1: t746,319
MP: t2,809,582
MP+1: t407,832
CO: t369,239
BTN: t1,647,197

Pre-flop: (t45,000) Hero is BB and dealt :qd4: :qh4:
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to t90,000, 3 folds, BTN calls t90,000, SB folds, Hero raises to t270,000, UTG+1 raises to t720,000

What do we do here? Villain is basically shoving, leaving 22k behind, less than 1 BB so do we call here and leave ourselves with 10BBs and very short if we lost, while taking the chip lead if we win? Should we open shove and take the decision out of it and gain the fold equity? Do we just lay it down and hope for better spots? Does the fact that it looks like a squeeze factor in here and villain is hoping we will fold to their marginal shove with something we're crushing?
 
jbbb

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With BTN behind left to act, I think UTG has a big hand. However, our view of a big hand isn't the same as most people's who play this tourny.
He could be wanting to get it in with AJs+,TT+ (we're 55% against this range) etc and so this becomes about playing his stats. Is he tight/loose/total donk (unlikely at this stage) etc. [even if he's a good player he'd know he had to loosen his range up for BSB play and so might think you're 'trying it on']
Id probably shove after BTN called to gain a sweet ~200k uncontested pot. Even if he does call with bottom of his range (eg AJ) he's still about 25% to win so you decide if your playing to win (i.e you want him to call) or playing to go deep (you'd prefer him to fold).

BTW just an aftertought, but leaving about 1BB behind rings alarm bells for me as to villian having a monster (AA,KK) as he wants to make it look like he "doesn't want to get it all in".

anyway, interested to hear the thoughts of good people on this.
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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He was fairly standard in terms of VPIP and PFR, but I only have around 70 hands on him so I can't say for sure. I don't know how much I like shoving such a big stack pre, I don't feel like I'm getting any value from lesser hands.

With the point about wanting him to call or fold, there's no way he's folding with 1BB left.
 
ben_rhyno

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I think with the 3-bet from you looking quite small, he may think he has fold equity over you. His 4-bet isn't huge, only 2.5x but I wouldn't read anything into him leaving chips behind, it might just be him clicking the raise button until he finds a number that looks intimidating. As played I shove and expect to see AK/JJ/TT and double up. As a point of interest try posting this hand on pocket5's and see the huge difference in responses you get. CC members may prompt you to fold and wait for a better spot, whereas the others will mostly say ship it. I'm inclined to shove here though.
 
Pascal-lf

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Urgh dirty dirty.

What are stats over 70 hands?

Like the 3bet sizing BTW
 
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baudib1

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The times that we should be looking to fold QQ in MTTs really aren't that common. This is not one of those times. If his range is exactly KK+/AK you've got the right price. Get it in.
 
cardriverx

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if Villian is only doing this with (QQ+, AK) than you still have 40% equity here, and you would be putting in 500,000 to win about 1.5 mil. A shove seems like the best play here.
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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yeah 450 to call, around 900 in the pot, so 2-1.
 
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Nothing wrong with the call here John in my opinion. These are the sort of hands and points in tournaments which take you on to win. (not that I've ever been in a position to know lol) but still I'm sure it was a correct call.
 
jbbb

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With the point about wanting him to call or fold, there's no way he's folding with 1BB left.

I mean if you 3-bet all in, he'd still have like 700k behind and so may fold. As played i'd ship it because its top of your BSB re-raising range, he'd have a very hard time putting you on a hand this strong.
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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Seems like this kinda died, so I'll just say what happened. I shoved, villain obvs calls, flips AKo, I lose and crash out a few hands later.
 
Poker Orifice

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Well I started to write an answer then lost it?

Not sure why member above posted.. (because BTN flatted.. we have to figure EP player to be real strong cuz they're still yet to act... why?.. the player only 'flatted' the EP raise. I could see if BTN was sitting on 20bb-ish stack & 'flatted'.. this could be cause for concern (if they were halfway decent player.. & figured blinds will maybe squeeze)).

Even if I think EP is sitting on only AA,KK,AKs,AKo I'm still getting it in here 100% all day long!!
I also figured .. isn't it more like we're getting 2.4to1 (not 2to1)? With QQ we'd still have ~40% eq vs. the tightest of villain's range. I'm never folding.

{prior to 3betting to 270k, I'm going to know if I'm going to be 'calling' if &/or when EP shoves... If I don't know what I'll do if they 4bai... I'm not 3betting to 270k). I'd also more likely 3bet/call shove as opposed to just 3bai here.

... read the result now.. unfortunate.
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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You make a good point in that if I didn't know what I was gonna do if he came over the top I shouldn't have played it. In all honesty I was 100% planning to go the whole with it, but I thought about it after and talked about it with a mate and so thought I'd post it for thoughts. Hindsight's a bitch I guess.
 
Shufflin

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Would it have been a terrible play here to just call pre-flop? That is probably my choice, but maybe why I don't get this far very often.

My reasoning is, if A or K flop, I can get away from the hand cheaply. I'd like to control pot size OOP. If undercards come, there will still be tough decisions, but I've got more information to work with...
 
spiderman637

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Its a Fold(with the given factors) !!! That's my advice !!!
 
Poker Orifice

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Would it have been a terrible play here to just call pre-flop? That is probably my choice, but maybe why I don't get this far very often.
You're potentially losing alot of value vs JJ-99 hands.

My reasoning is, if A or K flop, I can get away from the hand cheaply.< & potentially get bluff-raised off the best hand &/or lose value I'd like to control pot size OOP. If undercards come, there will still be tough decisions, but I've got more information to work with...
Why put yourself in spots where you'll have 'tough decisions'? Just askin'...
 
Pascal-lf

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Don't call pre. I probably sigh call but it's pretty close, I'd feel a lot happier with KK but I think he can occassionally show up with TT/JJ here because of the BTN flat which improves your equity
 
spiderman637

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How do you figure this is a fold? (can you explain?)

I'm guessing that's a results orientated post.
Frankly i saw result just now...More over, u had fair chance to win there too...But i would fold there 3 out of 3 times if i was serious on taking the tourney down !!!
Well, here is how i interpret the situation(based on my experience, been at that spot several times)...
>>>First point to note is the level which is "PRE-FINAL TABLE"...how do u think players gonna play in this level???
Well my present aim would be to get to the FT with good stack(FT play is very different again.Forget that for now).For that i would mostly depend and enter pots with post flop actions( blind stealing is different and yes u have to be good at that at this level for which ur reading skill of players mind should be good.. But here I am referring pots where u wanna enter and not just enter for the sake of stealing...) Preflop shove i would do only with AA and AK...I would not shove even KK preflop(seriously)...And also i would put my opponents on the same mind set unless i sense a different attitude player(u will find one or two aggro players in that situation, but rest of them will be in the mind set as i mentioned above)...Now ur player clearly doesn't fall on aggro type(based on ur posts)

> >>Now coming to the hand and present situation,villian puts 10% of his stack... i see u reraise putting 25% of ur stack, a very confusing and strong move(nice)...Here if i was ur villian i would put u in the range of 88 to AJ...(very rarely AQ)...And if i was holding AK i would definitely want to shove before seeing the flop, Which he did correctly...This i believe was easy for him to decide...
Now its again back to you for action...Here comes the important and tricky part where u have to make a difficult decision to put 75% of ur stack(extra 50)...Now, If ur brain is still holding the concept i explained in the first paragraph, u would definitely fold and try to avoid the risk...But if u put villian as a loose player (which is not as ur stats on him show), u can call and take the risk....
>>>U have more than 30 blinds... a spot where u can get to final table with decent stack without coin flip risks !!!

>Lastly, many good players here think about stats, calculations, etc...They are good in their places, but if u want the edge, the most important is "READING UR OPPONENTS" which no one can teach you more than you to urself and on which my play is dependent most...
The current spot u are in requires less of stats and calculations and more of "reading and analyzing the betting pattern of ur opponents)...U need to shift gear between concepts too at different levels !!!
Well good luck at the tables...
Finally ask 3 questions to urself...
1.) What will u do if u come across the same situations again in the future ?
2.) Will u really follow ur answer from now on without caring for the result ??
3.) Will u comfortably recommend ur answer to others ???
If u can comfortably answer the 3 questions, u can go with ur answer...If ur brains is not 100% sure regarding the 3 questions...U better start and continue experimentation till u are comfortable answering the 3 questions !!!
 
Pascal-lf

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Not shoving KK pre, why? You say stuff without giving decent reasons or evidence to back any of it up...

No offense to spiderman but IMO ignore a lot of the above post - avoiding risk and +ev situations where you are ~50% vs someone's range and just trying to scrape onto the final table isn't the way to maximise profits (by winning tournaments)
 
ben_rhyno

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Not shoving KK pre, why? You say stuff without giving decent reasons or evidence to back any of it up...

No offense to spiderman but IMO ignore most of the above post - avoiding risk and +ev situations where you are ~50% vs someone's range and just trying to scrape onto the final table isn't the way to maximise profits (by winning tournaments)
especially folding KK and shoving AK. Just wow
 
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