$2.20 NLHE MTT: Do I check-raise bluff the river HU?

Heads-up in the $2.20 Bubble Rush. Is this a believable line? I would certainly play a flush this way (would indeed check-call flop with NFD), but it's more about what my opponent thinks of course. He doesn't seem to have flushes or tens in his range as those would bet the turn. The small bet on the river seems like a value squeeze from an 8 or a 7. Does my line make enough sense to work?

poker stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1800/t3600 Blinds + t450 - 2 players

Hero (BB): t455454 M = 72.29
BTN/SB: t651546 M = 103.42

Pre Flop: (t6300) Hero is BB with J :spade: A :heart:
BTN/SB raises to t8064, Hero raises to t23200, BTN/SB calls t15136

Flop: (t47300) T :club: T :heart: 7 :heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t24596, Hero calls t24596

Turn: (t96492) 8 :heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

River: (t96492) 5 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t38597, Hero raises to t144545

Check-call with nfd sure, but would you actually check the river and risk getting nothing? After the check-check turn there's no way im checking the flush , hes got Ax or small pairs that you could get value from which he may check back with. Because of that, id think your line is bluffy every time. If you play a flush this way HU i think you lose more value from his decent hands than you gain when he bluffs the river.

Gerb said:

Check-call with nfd sure, but would you actually check the river and risk getting nothing? After the check-check turn there's no way im checking the flush , hes got Ax or small pairs that you could get value from which he may check back with. Because of that, id think your line is bluffy every time. If you play a flush this way HU i think you lose more value from his decent hands than you gain when he bluffs the river.

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That's a good thought, but I would indeed go for the check-raise on the river if I had the nut flush. The paired board makes it a bit more awkward, but that way I protect my weaker hands that I check with and lose less on those as I get more check backs. Lower flushes I'm betting obviously.

To go a bit more in-depth on that: I'm check-raising a lot of nut flushes on the river because it allows me to make bluffs like that. In this exact spot, I wanna check the river because my AJ could easily be good if it goes check-check. So if I'm checking with the nut flush blocker, I also wanna check with the nut flush. In the exact spot you HAVE the nut flush that probably won't be the most profitable line, but it prevents you from being exploited. Although my opponent in this case was a bit stationy and too LAG, he was good enough to exploit me. Being this deep that's definitely something to consider.

ninoverm said:

In the exact spot you HAVE the nut flush that probably won't be the most profitable line, but it prevents you from being exploited.

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Fair enough, I guess discouraging villains thin value bet this way means you'll get to show down A-high hands much more often. If you pulled that move every time you had the A flush blocker, you'd have too many bluffs though wouldn't you? Do you have a bluff:made hand ratio that you stick to?

Gerb said:

Fair enough, I guess discouraging villains thin value bet this way means you'll get to show down A-high hands much more often.

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Yes, and as he'll check back a lot more I lose less if I have say a 7 and he has an 8. I save the value bet in that case.

Your thinking is good though - this would be an awful bluff if it was someone else with a whole different strategy.