$2.20 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: is it really an obvious call on the river?

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serna

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https://www.weaktight.com/h/5cd7de75d3904385738b4685 Hello! the player on the MP1 was very active and opening vey loosely.so I decided to 3bethim(though based on my HUD data he rarely folded to a 3Bet), still IMO given that he calls widely our hand should play very well in position against him. this flop probably doesnt hit anybody`s range and I also have a lot of pocket pairs in my range and some back door gutshouts so I decided to bet. both players called. on the turn I checked. On the river, when SB checks he either has 7 our some missed draws. MP1, by betting , is represeting either 6 or T and sometimes turning his flushdraws into bluff but IMO the villian wont do that a lot cause we can still have some pocket pairs in my range which I checked on the turn, and regarding T, he could only be betting by some Tdxd , which IMO the worst one would be Td9d. What do you think about my call on the river??
 
greatgame230

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Hi, I think the preflop was well played with JTs a good 3bet to have control of the hand all this for the reading that you give the villain, from my point of view I think everything started to get complicated with the cbet of the flop I think that you have a very good villain reading and you know that he is quite loose, the rank that I would place the villain with the information at that moment could be Ax or the flush project later on the turn I would have insisted with an equal bet or lower than the one you made on the flop to see if he made the call too, I mean with this, see if he insisted on his project then the river for me must be check, I mean that with his set of 6 he had to check to wait for your movement and you should have done the same with the T. now the hand was very complicated but for what you say the villain could have done the miniraise with 67s although it was not what one could imagine that is why the call is not completely wrong the only thing is I would have thought a little more because of the call on the flop if it had been 7 why the T did not scare him and he repeated the check in the river? , I think I would have folded since I would have interpreted that his rank was with A10 or 67s.
It is very easy to analyze a hand seeing the result so I always say this is my opinion (IMO) I am not saying that you played the hand badly I only express what I would have done.
 
puzzlefish

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I don't think it was worthwhile to continue with JTs on that flop. As you did, checking the turn next gives your villain a free card and possibly completes their flush. The call on the river is not good at all. You have at best a bluff catcher with a junk kicker.
 
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serna

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greatgame230 said:
Hi, I think the preflop was well played with JTs a good 3bet to have control of the hand all this for the reading that you give the villain, from my point of view I think everything started to get complicated with the cbet of the flop I think that you have a very good villain reading and you know that he is quite loose, the rank that I would place the villain with the information at that moment could be Ax or the flush project later on the turn I would have insisted with an equal bet or lower than the one you made on the flop to see if he made the call too, I mean with this, see if he insisted on his project then the river for me must be check, I mean that with his set of 6 he had to check to wait for your movement and you should have done the same with the T. now the hand was very complicated but for what you say the villain could have done the miniraise with 67s although it was not what one could imagine that is why the call is not completely wrong the only thing is I would have thought a little more because of the call on the flop if it had been 7 why the T did not scare him and he repeated the check in the river? , I think I would have folded since I would have interpreted that his rank was with A10 or 67s.
It is very easy to analyze a hand seeing the result so I always say this is my opinion (IMO) I am not saying that you played the hand badly I only express what I would have done.
Click to expand...
Thanks for answer.do you think this flop hit their range a lot ? When in the flop both of them called me I think I dont have any fold equity on the turn so why I should continue on the turn?
And on the river I absoluetly check if he check and I agree calling river not so good because when SB cold call pre flop I put him in hands like 77,88,99,1010,Ax and the way he played I can eliminate pairs from his range so it is very likely he call the flop with ace of diamond so it means that flush draws heavilly blocked and it means that Utg1 call the flop with 6x,7x,89,9d10d,10djd,10dqd and on the river I am crushed against his value range and I cant find a lot of bluff in his range given overcalling the flop what do you think about my tough process?
 
Jacki Burkhart

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Preflop: JTs we are playing for sure. the question is should we flat or 3bet? I think we should mostly flat and occasionally 3betting is fine. not wanting to 3b this all the time as he is in EP and should have his strongest range (even a loose player plays their strongest range from EP). the more likely the blinds are to squeeze the more we want to 3bet. with standard average players in blinds I'm probably 3betting 10-15% of the time and flatting the rest of the time. your size is good and standard.

FLOP: OK well we made a preflop play, it didn't work like we hoped and we got called in 2 places. we completely whiffed the flop. This is a good candidate to check back with the intention of giving up unless we improve on the turn. we have to have some giveups or we are over Cbetting. Our 3bet bluffs that can continue here are: any of the diamond hands as well as JTcc, A5cc, A4cc, and any of the T9s (already has a gutshot and 2 overs).

TURN: As played definitely checking the turn.

RIVER: It's a close spot....but not as close as it might seem at first blush. which hands do we think he A) opened in early position B) called a 3bet from out of position and C) called a cbet in a multiway pot? it's draws, sets or overpairs mostly. the diamonds missed but the most obvious open ender got there. and his overpairs should feel pretty safe. and his sets are boats.

he would need to be bluffing with 2 big diamonds (KJd, KQd, AJd, AQd, AKd) or turning 88-99 into a bluff. most players wont turn 88-99 into a bluff here so we are basically down to the 5 or 6 combos of missed diamonds.

now lets look at his probable value: 77 (3) 66(1) TT(1) JJ (3) QQ (6) 89s (3)

he has about 14 combos of value if we DON'T include all the random 6x suited he apparently has in his range. Maybe sometimes he jams QQ pre, but he also has some random 6x suited so something like 14 combos of value is probably in the neighborhood.

14 value : 6 bluff

ratio: 2.33 :1 value to bluff

pot odds we are being offered: half pot bet = 3:1 pot odds

so based on that alone it is a call.

HOWEVER, we do not close the action. we must consider this. also, in general villains are less likely to suddenly bluff the river when they are not the aggressor.....and this is even more true when betting into 2 people.

as such...I think he will have fewer bluffs than he should and I lean towards a fold. it is admittedly close but I'm folding here.

Cliffs notes: check back flop. as played it's an uncomfortable but disciplined fold on the river.
 
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serna

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Jacki Burkhart said:
Preflop: JTs we are playing for sure. the question is should we flat or 3bet? I think we should mostly flat and occasionally 3betting is fine. not wanting to 3b this all the time as he is in EP and should have his strongest range (even a loose player plays their strongest range from EP). the more likely the blinds are to squeeze the more we want to 3bet. with standard average players in blinds I'm probably 3betting 10-15% of the time and flatting the rest of the time. your size is good and standard.

FLOP: OK well we made a preflop play, it didn't work like we hoped and we got called in 2 places. we completely whiffed the flop. This is a good candidate to check back with the intention of giving up unless we improve on the turn. we have to have some giveups or we are over Cbetting. Our 3bet bluffs that can continue here are: any of the diamond hands as well as JTcc, A5cc, A4cc, and any of the T9s (already has a gutshot and 2 overs).

TURN: As played definitely checking the turn.

RIVER: It's a close spot....but not as close as it might seem at first blush. which hands do we think he A) opened in early position B) called a 3bet from out of position and C) called a cbet in a multiway pot? it's draws, sets or overpairs mostly. the diamonds missed but the most obvious open ender got there. and his overpairs should feel pretty safe. and his sets are boats.

he would need to be bluffing with 2 big diamonds (KJd, KQd, AJd, AQd, AKd) or turning 88-99 into a bluff. most players wont turn 88-99 into a bluff here so we are basically down to the 5 or 6 combos of missed diamonds.

now lets look at his probable value: 77 (3) 66(1) TT(1) JJ (3) QQ (6) 89s (3)

he has about 14 combos of value if we DON'T include all the random 6x suited he apparently has in his range. Maybe sometimes he jams QQ pre, but he also has some random 6x suited so something like 14 combos of value is probably in the neighborhood.

14 value : 6 bluff

ratio: 2.33 :1 value to bluff

pot odds we are being offered: half pot bet = 3:1 pot odds

so based on that alone it is a call.

HOWEVER, we do not close the action. we must consider this. also, in general villains are less likely to suddenly bluff the river when they are not the aggressor.....and this is even more true when betting into 2 people.

as such...I think he will have fewer bluffs than he should and I lean towards a fold. it is admittedly close but I'm folding here.

Cliffs notes: check back flop. as played it's an uncomfortable but disciplined fold on the river.
Click to expand...
Thank you your reasons help me a lot
 
greatgame230

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serna said:
Thanks for answer.do you think this flop hit their range a lot ? When in the flop both of them called me I think I dont have any fold equity on the turn so why I should continue on the turn?
And on the river I absoluetly check if he check and I agree calling river not so good because when SB cold call pre flop I put him in hands like 77,88,99,1010,Ax and the way he played I can eliminate pairs from his range so it is very likely he call the flop with ace of diamond so it means that flush draws heavilly blocked and it means that Utg1 call the flop with 6x,7x,89,9d10d,10djd,10dqd and on the river I am crushed against his value range and I cant find a lot of bluff in his range given overcalling the flop what do you think about my tough process?
Click to expand...
Ok first, I repeat, I do not criticize your play. I think it was fold on the river for the villain's call on the flop. That's to summarize my previous answer.
Now I must acknowledge my mistake, it is true there is no F E in betting on the turn, therefore, there is no need to bet the move was check. about your thought process I agree with eliminating any pairs of the SB after the flop, then concluded that you thought that both were looking for the flush or straight project that I say for the range that you put the SB leaving as unique option Ax and the range of UTG + 1, to be honest that would be easier to make the decision to fold on the river because it only leaves you as the only line of thought that the villain took the board to make a bluff but really I do not see it that way, at that time I would have thought the T did not scare him in his 6x range then fold. What I just said is trying to follow your line of thought again to repeat this type of hand is very easy to analyze them after they happens is not so easy while you are playing your hand and that's why I do not criticize the way you played, I just point out what that I would have thought, which does not mean it's the right thing to do.
 
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Against the opponent described, I don't mind calling here.
 
eetenor

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Great break down.

Jacki Burkhart said:
Preflop: JTs we are playing for sure. the question is should we flat or 3bet? I think we should mostly flat and occasionally 3betting is fine. not wanting to 3b this all the time as he is in EP and should have his strongest range (even a loose player plays their strongest range from EP). the more likely the blinds are to squeeze the more we want to 3bet. with standard average players in blinds I'm probably 3betting 10-15% of the time and flatting the rest of the time. your size is good and standard.

FLOP: OK well we made a preflop play, it didn't work like we hoped and we got called in 2 places. we completely whiffed the flop. This is a good candidate to check back with the intention of giving up unless we improve on the turn. we have to have some giveups or we are over Cbetting. Our 3bet bluffs that can continue here are: any of the diamond hands as well as JTcc, A5cc, A4cc, and any of the T9s (already has a gutshot and 2 overs).

TURN: As played definitely checking the turn.

RIVER: It's a close spot....but not as close as it might seem at first blush. which hands do we think he A) opened in early position B) called a 3bet from out of position and C) called a cbet in a multiway pot? it's draws, sets or overpairs mostly. the diamonds missed but the most obvious open ender got there. and his overpairs should feel pretty safe. and his sets are boats.

he would need to be bluffing with 2 big diamonds (KJd, KQd, AJd, AQd, AKd) or turning 88-99 into a bluff. most players wont turn 88-99 into a bluff here so we are basically down to the 5 or 6 combos of missed diamonds.

now lets look at his probable value: 77 (3) 66(1) TT(1) JJ (3) QQ (6) 89s (3)

he has about 14 combos of value if we DON'T include all the random 6x suited he apparently has in his range. Maybe sometimes he jams QQ pre, but he also has some random 6x suited so something like 14 combos of value is probably in the neighborhood.

14 value : 6 bluff

ratio: 2.33 :1 value to bluff

pot odds we are being offered: half pot bet = 3:1 pot odds

so based on that alone it is a call.

HOWEVER, we do not close the action. we must consider this. also, in general villains are less likely to suddenly bluff the river when they are not the aggressor.....and this is even more true when betting into 2 people.

as such...I think he will have fewer bluffs than he should and I lean towards a fold. it is admittedly close but I'm folding here.

Cliffs notes: check back flop. as played it's an uncomfortable but disciplined fold on the river.
Click to expand...

Just wanted to say thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Hopefully everyone will read this post several times and really think about all the great points included here.

Love the point: villains seldom bluffing on the river vs hero and another villain.

:cool::cool::cool:
 
liuouhgkres

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Your biggest mistake is to bet flop here. Sure you have a lot of overpairs, but you actually don't have nuts here, and ivoirian guy has all sets, because he overcalled your 3bet after SB call. So, in a way, your range is actually capped here, and you should bet this flop rarely. If you had A5, A4 or maybe A8 in your range, they are much better candidates for bluff.

On the river it is insta call. Actually you don't have a lot of Tx hands in your range. You shouldn't be 3betting AT, KT so villain easily can assume that T didn't help anyone and go for value with 88, 99.
 
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