$2.2 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Poket Pair Aces EP, size bets

r_iiiichard

r_iiiichard

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SB: 114,500 (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 21)
BB: 105,686 (VPIP: 36.00, PFR: 24.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 25)
Hero (UTG): 77,159
UTG+1: 126,405 (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 25)
MP: 55,756 (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 30.77, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 13)
MP+1: 116,471 (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 9)
CO: 55,053 (VPIP: 12.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 25)
BTN: 98,240 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 5)

8 players post ante of 175, SB posts SB 725, BB posts BB 1,450

Pre Flop: (pot: 3,575) Hero has A♠ A♥

Hero raises to 3,190, UTG+1 calls 3,190, fold, MP+1 calls 3,190, fold, BTN calls 3,190, fold, BB calls 1,740

Flop: (18,075, 5 players) K♣ 8♣ 9♥
BB checks, Hero bets 13,917, UTG+1 calls 13,917, fold, fold, BB raises to 102,321 and is all-in, Hero calls 59,877 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls 88,404

Turn: (296,511, 3 players) K♥

River: (296,511, 3 players) Q♥

Hero shows A♠ A♥ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)

UTG+1 shows 4♣ A♣ (One Pair, Kings)

BB shows 9♦ K♦ (Full House, Kings full of Nines)
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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I think in particular since we DON'T have the Ac in our hand, this is a pretty standard call off. It's a huge jam, and you will see that sometimes from the value hands in villain's range bc of the wet nature of the board, but there are so many draws available that I'm always calling it off here vs weak opponents (which is the majority of the players in the fields at this buyin level).

Nice hand. In particular, I like that you sized flop somewhat large. Only nitpicking thing would be that I might start raising larger pre if you've seen that you're going multiway quite a bit. But again that's definitely nitpicking.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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I like your preflop size and Cbet size in this hand.

facing the call and jam, I'm not sure I always call off here.

It's close and in close spots like this with a decent (but not monster) value hand I think either decision can actually be fine. There are plenty of draws available so equities will run fairly close if you give him a range of 2p or draws and a few overplayed AK KQ type hands.

These are spots where, in a live tourney I'll most likely slow down and take a read and maybe find a fold because I think the overjam signals strength (he's gotta think theres a good chance he's getting called in at least 1 spot when theres a big Cbet and a call).

However, in a $2.20 online I'll lean towards calling off because at those stakes there are more idiots available to overvalue Kx or overplay flush draws.
 
MattRyder

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Scourrge said:
I think in particular since we DON'T have the Ac in our hand, this is a pretty standard call off. It's a huge jam, and you will see that sometimes from the value hands in villain's range bc of the wet nature of the board, but there are so many draws available that I'm always calling it off here vs weak opponents (which is the majority of the players in the fields at this buyin level).

Nice hand. In particular, I like that you sized flop somewhat large. Only nitpicking thing would be that I might start raising larger pre if you've seen that you're going multiway quite a bit. But again that's definitely nitpicking.
Click to expand...
I wonder if you could explain a bit more your thinking on this hand? In my experience (at the lower stakes) with a wet board like that the jammer is almost always playing 2 pair, not "sometimes" as you say. He's pretty much screaming that out to the world that he's got what is 'currently' the best hand - he wants to protect it and get maximum value from it at the same time. UTG+1 is also suggesting that he's chasing a draw by calling, most likely with this board a club flush draw but could also be the OESD. "Weak" players play low AXs all the time hoping for just this type of flop.

Your argument about there being "so many draws available" is true which is why Ac4c is calling. (He also happens to be ahead of AA at this table, but we really have no way of knowing that till after we made the big call on the flop.)

Could be different, but not usually. I'm not a great player, but I see this sort of thing a lot at the lower stakes.

That being the case, AA is pretty likely to be the dog in this hand:

25c93ada0ffe3e46af12cb83d631d223.png


237deb8bca0a1447ba0bfe992bbbacd5.png


So why put the rest of your money in the pot (with one over-pair and no draws) and take a big risk with your tournament life? Hero had 41 BB left when he made that call. That 41 BB could have been used to greater effect in a later hand with better (likely) odds, could it not? AA fails so often in multi-way pots with wet boards and a huge check/raise like this one.

BTW - if UTG+1 had been chasing the straight the odds would not be significantly different. AA is still behind:

922a6e2f118a36acf2b6605d87b06987.png


Just trying to understand.
 
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Jacki Burkhart

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MattRyder said:
I wonder if you could explain a bit more your thinking on this hand? In my experience (at the lower stakes) with a wet board like that the jammer is almost always playing 2 pair, not "sometimes" as you say. He's pretty much screaming that out to the world that he's got what is 'currently' the best hand - he wants to protect it and get maximum value from it at the same time. UTG+1 is also suggesting that he's chasing a draw by calling, most likely with this board a club flush draw but could also be the OESD. "Weak" players play low AXs all the time hoping for just this type of flop.

Your argument about there being "so many draws available" is true which is why Ac4c is calling. (He also happens to be ahead of AA at this table, but we really have no way of knowing that till after we made the big call on the flop.)

Could be different, but not usually. I'm not a great player, but I see this sort of thing a lot at the lower stakes.

That being the case, AA is pretty likely to be the dog in this hand:

25c93ada0ffe3e46af12cb83d631d223.png


237deb8bca0a1447ba0bfe992bbbacd5.png


So why put the rest of your money in the pot (with one over-pair and no draws) and take a big risk with your tournament life? Hero had 41 BB left when he made that call. That 41 BB could have been used to greater effect in a later hand with better (likely) odds, could it not? AA fails so often in multi-way pots with wet boards and a huge check/raise like this one.

BTW - if UTG+1 had been chasing the straight the odds would not be significantly different. AA is still behind:

922a6e2f118a36acf2b6605d87b06987.png


Just trying to understand.
Click to expand...

I can't speak for Matt, but I see all the points you are making and can't disagree. The only thing I'll say is that your numbers are deceptive because they are based on 3 players reaching the river all with reasonable hands. In reality when hero makes his decision he does not know that he's going to go 3ways to the river, so the equities change quite a bit. We really should be ranging our hand vs just the jammer because it is quite rare that BOTH players will call off (obviously it's a consideration and will happen sometimes).

so for instance the AA vs :ac4::4c4: the AA has 63.6% (and with some presumed dead money a bunch of the time)

vs. :kd4::9d4: the AA has 25.5% equity.

if we assign the button jammer a range that includes mostly nut flush draws, 2 pair , sets and AK,KQ then we have 59%

say we remove AK because he will sometimes jam pre and sometimes not overvalue it on the flop, then we still have 52.6% vs that entire range.

In a live situation, if I had any tells that UTG+1 intended to call off this jam I would definitely fold as I'm most likely facing a monster and a big draw. but without knowing that it's actually MUCH MUCH closer than it looks on the surface,
 
liuouhgkres

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People don't bluff enough in these spots, especially at these stakes people almost never bluff like that. I can't even remember when I called in similar situation and villain showed draw. Also weak player like jamming strong holdings, if you play cardschat freerolls you will learn that for sure.
 
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Maurits92

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For me this is a close call considering the amount of draws on the wet flop. BB has like all the draws, considering the preflop pot odds he's getting to see a flop. Of course he could also do this with sets & 2P's, but considering the board texture and since BB is 5th to enter the pot, this would be a call for me.
 
MattRyder

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Thanks folks! I enjoyed this discussion and found it very helpful.
 
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