$2.2 NLHE MTT: Final Table ICM pressure overpair vs flush draw

Hi there. I haven’t posted a hand for analysis before, so pardon me if I make a mistake or withhold key information.

I was playing in an online $2.2 R/A 1k GTD, at the final table, sitting 3/8 with 216k stack with significant pay jumps to come. Blinds were 3k/6k with a 600 ante. There is only one blind (BB) in play this hand. I picked up KcKh UTG. I raise to 12k. Only the CO (shark, chipleader, 381k stack) and button (looser, aggressive player, 375k stack) call.


Flop is Jd2s2d. I check. CO bets 12k. BU raises to 24k. I call 24k, CO folds. Turn is Qd. I check. BU bets 80k. I shove all in for 179k. BU calls, shows JsAd. River is 6d, BU wins w A hi flush.

My question is where did I make mistakes in the hand, if at all? I feel like I maybe should have check raised flop, to not let the BU see another diamond for free. However, I wasn't sure if the CO in this situation would come over with a reraise after essentially min betting the flop, so I flatted (I was thinking maybe the CO had a 2). On the turn, I was fairly certain my opponent had a one pair hand with only one diamond. I checked because I was pretty sure they would bet again given the strength of their hand, with the intention of shoving over the top with a decent amount of equity. I ended up shoving and getting called off with about 70% equity in my favor heads-up. In my mind, this is a good situation for me and in the long run, this is a solid play. I do not play for any position but first. I knew if I won that pot, I would be outright chip leader, which significantly increases my chances of taking first I really felt my kings were good at showdown on the turn at least, and because of all these factors, I elected to risk my tourney life. As a result, I took 8th, whereas first received 6x the payout. Did I make an ICM mistake by getting my stack in w/ 70% equity for the chip lead?

ccall5 said:

Hi there. I haven’t posted a hand for analysis before, so pardon me if I make a mistake or withhold key information.

I was playing in an online $2.2 R/A 1k GTD, at the final table, sitting 3/8 with 216k stack with significant pay jumps to come. Blinds were 3k/6k with a 600 ante. There is only one blind (BB) in play this hand. I picked up KcKh UTG. I raise to 12k. Only the CO (shark, chipleader, 381k stack) and button (looser, aggressive player, 375k stack) call.


Flop is Jd2s2d. I check. CO bets 12k. BU raises to 24k. I call 24k, CO folds. Turn is Qd. I check. BU bets 80k. I shove all in for 179k. BU calls, shows JsAd. River is 6d, BU wins w A hi flush.

My question is where did I make mistakes in the hand, if at all? I feel like I maybe should have check raised flop, to not let the BU see another diamond for free. However, I wasn't sure if the CO in this situation would come over with a reraise after essentially min betting the flop, so I flatted (I was thinking maybe the CO had a 2). On the turn, I was fairly certain my opponent had a one pair hand with only one diamond. I checked because I was pretty sure they would bet again given the strength of their hand, with the intention of shoving over the top with a decent amount of equity. I ended up shoving and getting called off with about 70% equity in my favor heads-up. In my mind, this is a good situation for me and in the long run, this is a solid play. I do not play for any position but first. I knew if I won that pot, I would be outright chip leader, which significantly increases my chances of taking first I really felt my kings were good at showdown on the turn at least, and because of all these factors, I elected to risk my tourney life. As a result, I took 8th, whereas first received 6x the payout. Did I make an ICM mistake by getting my stack in w/ 70% equity for the chip lead?

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You did play the hand correctly. You extracted max value and they had to get lucky on you. You have to realize that you can't just utilize the outcomes, but know you played it good.

If you want to try to protect your hand more to the point of not having the AJ play, you have to bet more pre to protect. Thinking a 4x bet would do the trick, especially if you are showing a very tight image.

I think you would be good if you played that in a cash game, but ICM-wise in a MTT probably not so much. I think you can probably afford to get away on the turn and fold to the 80k bet, as your Kings are strong but now at significant risk to made suited hands, sets, 2-pairs.

I would never be checking the flop as the aggressor in the hand - always cbetting this and probably betting around 1/3 pot in this spot. It's a paired board - extremely unlikely either opponent has a 2, and while the J falls in their range it's still a board that's hard for our opponents to hit so we dont want to bet super large here. Pot should be around a total of 40k - I would cbet 13.5k - 14k here into two opponents. Not only does it look strong, it's also what we should be doing a large portion of the time. If the button decides to raise me here I am looking to get it all in on this flop where I am very likely to be ahead. Doubtful anyone is slow playing AA here, and if we run into JJ here thats just unfortunate.

So if we were to get it all in here and called by the AJ and the opponent runners the flush good for them - the fact of the matter is we would be getting our money in as a massive favorite and looking to solidify ourselves as a chip leader and looking for a top tier finish.

As played I am never flatting the 24k raise on the flop. You are giving diamond draws especially Ax and then giving any Jx hands opportunity to overtake your hand. The turn comes a Q of diamons and we decide to jam now....makes no sense to me. It's one of the worst cards for us to decide to jam overtop of - tons of flush draw combos are raising the flop and we do not hold the K of diamonds - so with a diamond on the turn + the chance that QQ just got there on us - there is NO reason for us to jam this turn.

Anyhow, I'm always raising that flop raise. I am taking it up to 64k - 72k and looking to call off any jams over the top. If we do get called and we see a turn - I am jamming any and all turns - too committed to fold at that point. I cant see any ICM program that will tell us to do any different other than stack off in this scenario, our hand is just way too strong and we are simply beating too much to fold.

If we go broke with KK here that is nothing to be ashamed of - but we should be taking the aggressive line here on the flop for sure.

Hope this makes sense. Good luck.to you in your games!

EDIT:: Thinking back to my comment where I said I would realise the flop raise - 100% doing this but I might just jam rather than take it up to 72k or so...there's roughly 80k in the pot, if we shove we give our opponent decent odds to stack off to us with a worse hand - and given they have both showed strength by betting - we can probably get called by at least one. For those reasons, I think I like the check jam here.

For the record I am still never checking this flop lol

Preflop
I know, a lot of people mini-raise in tournaments, and sometimes it can be an ok play, but in my opinion this was not such a time. You are giving everyone amazing odds to see a flop and inviting multiway action and all sorts of suck-outs.

You start this hand with more than 30BB, and that is certainly plenty enough to raise to a bigger size. And also you dont mind, if someone 3-bet you, when you have KK, which is the main reason for small open sizes. If fact you would be absolutely thrilled to get 3-bet, and you would only take time before 4-bet jamming to not give away timing tells.

Sure there is an argument for using the same size with all your hands to not give away sizing tells. But maybe not all these players even know, what your normal size is. And also I dont mind to go larger with my entire range, when stacks are this deep. For me mini-raising is really the last resort, when you are down to like 12BB but dont want to open jam.

Flop
I see no point in check-calling this flop. Just put out the traditional C-bet for value and continue to barrel on good runouts.

Turn
Now the board got kind of ugly, since flushes got there and QJ as well. But this is the time you picked to turn up your aggression by check-jamming over a pot sized bet. I dont know. Its kind of gross to be honest, when he use this sizing.

I feel, the hand would have been easier to play, had you just kept the initiative on the flop. It would allow you to determine the size of the turn bet. If he then jammed on you, I would strongly consider folding. And if he just call, you would have an easy check-fold on the river, when 4 diamonds are on the board.

Conclusion
This hand is kind of a cooler or bad beat, but I think, you played it to passively preflop and on the flop, and this came back to haunt you on the turn.

I think you should be cbetting small almost your entire opening range on this board.
It's a paired board but I don't think you can give opponents credit for a 2 may be A2 suited would flat here occasionally but would be wrong to do so.

I think you should be looking to raise on the flop also and not give flush draw hands the chance to hit.

Like your turn decision to jam over the top you extracted maximum value and he has called not quite getting correct pot odds to make the call

ccall5 said:

Hi there. I haven’t posted a hand for analysis before, so pardon me if I make a mistake or withhold key information.

I was playing in an online $2.2 R/A 1k GTD, at the final table, sitting 3/8 with 216k stack with significant pay jumps to come. Blinds were 3k/6k with a 600 ante. There is only one blind (BB) in play this hand. I picked up KcKh UTG. I raise to 12k. Only the CO (shark, chipleader, 381k stack) and button (looser, aggressive player, 375k stack) call.


Flop is Jd2s2d. I check. CO bets 12k. BU raises to 24k. I call 24k, CO folds. Turn is Qd. I check. BU bets 80k. I shove all in for 179k. BU calls, shows JsAd. River is 6d, BU wins w A hi flush.

My question is where did I make mistakes in the hand, if at all? I feel like I maybe should have check raised flop, to not let the BU see another diamond for free. However, I wasn't sure if the CO in this situation would come over with a reraise after essentially min betting the flop, so I flatted (I was thinking maybe the CO had a 2). On the turn, I was fairly certain my opponent had a one pair hand with only one diamond. I checked because I was pretty sure they would bet again given the strength of their hand, with the intention of shoving over the top with a decent amount of equity. I ended up shoving and getting called off with about 70% equity in my favor heads-up. In my mind, this is a good situation for me and in the long run, this is a solid play. I do not play for any position but first. I knew if I won that pot, I would be outright chip leader, which significantly increases my chances of taking first I really felt my kings were good at showdown on the turn at least, and because of all these factors, I elected to risk my tourney life. As a result, I took 8th, whereas first received 6x the payout. Did I make an ICM mistake by getting my stack in w/ 70% equity for the chip lead?

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Unfortunately we just go broke here. I dont see how we can get away. Regaurdless of the line we take we come to the same conclution I do believe. With that said I think there is 1 line we might be able to make a hero fold on the river....

Frist off we cant check the flop. We have to CBet. Since I bet alot of paired boards regardless if I hit or not, and I almost always bet small. To stay balanced I would bet small (25-33%) on the flop. With the expectation I will be betting 60% pot on almost all turns....

If that's the case I dont ever seeing a AdJx folding. Unfortunately we ran into the cooler, but with any other hand that makes this call Preflop is folding. The only hands that arent are AdXd, Jx, and A2. That's it... if you do get middle pair to call the flop they fold to your turn bet.... so if that's the case, when the dimond comes on the river, and we check, and the AdJx jams.... the pot is probably around 100K-120K pot with us effective with about 160K-140K behind going into the river.... when that last dimond falls, and we check.... I want to believe that Vill as chip leader is gonna be jamming 100% of thier air, and 100% of thier made hands.... checking back everything middling that we actually beat. Like Jx.... so because of this I think we can find a hero fold, but the fact they are agressive, and they called us down. I hate folding to this player on the river cause they know we are only checking with over pair no draw after double barreling that board.... that's why I think we just go broke here.

Thanks for the replies all, I am learning a lot not only about how to play my hands but how to think about playing them as well. Much appreciated

ccall5 said:

Thanks for the replies all, I am learning a lot not only about how to play my hands but how to think about playing them as well. Much appreciated

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You are welcome. I think, the two main points in this hand is to understand, what different bet sizes do preflop, and to understand the value of maintaining the betting lead / initiative postflop. I did not dive to much into the flop action in my initial response, but I wonder, why you decided to check?

If if was because of fear of busting ("ICM pressure"), that is definitely a mistake. Given that this was the final table, everyone was now playing for money, that mattered to them or at least their bankroll, and the worst players have typically not made it this far.

So this is not the stage in the tournament, where I expect someone to call with 72 for something to do. Which basically mean, you only lose to JJ (3 combos) and A2s (2 combos), and even those hands are reduced, because at least some of the time JJ would get 3-bet and A2s either 3-bet or folded.

They can however have AJ (12 combos), KJ (6 combos), QJs (3 combos) and maybe QTs (3 combos), they can have 33-TT (48 combos), and they can have some flushdraws as well, since it was a 2-tone board.

So they have a ton of hands, you can get value from by betting, and it would require a very special reason for me to think, checking to induce bluffs was more profitable. Its also a spot, where I would happily stack it off on the flop, if I bet and get raised.

Finally this was not a spot, where there was big ICM-pressure on you, unless several other players were running on fumes. In that case it can make sense to hold back a little and let them bust or dubble up, before you start to tangle with the other big stacks. But if everyone have like 15BB or more, this is still everyones game, and you should just focus on accumulating chips.

The reason is, that the first payjumps at the final table are typically insignificant, so what matter now is to finish in top 3 or ideally win the thing. And with only the third largest stack, you still need to accumulate more chips for that to happen.