$165 NLHE MTT: Defend BB then Bluff turn with NFD and Gutter

Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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this is a live $165 turbo. blinds are 1k/5k/10k

We have 14 players left and 12 are paid. I am probably tournament chip leader but definitely table chip leader with about 450k (45bb)


so it folds to the button (280k 28bb) he is a young good player I don't have much experience playing with him but I've seen him around he's always got chips late in tourneys and my quick assessment is he's roughly as good as me; I can assign him similar ranges that I might have and they should be close. nobody else at the table is very good.

He raises to 25k from Button. SB flats off a stack of about 125k (he's weak tight and will just look at a flop and donk jam or check fold). I have :as4::2s4: and consider 3b but I figure this is a hand that has decent playability and I don't suspect Button is opening vs my BB super light due to stack/bubble situation. He knows I haven't been folding my BB much.

so I flat we take a flop. pot contains 82k flop :qs4::3c4::5h4:

it checks to button he Cbets 50k SB folds. I take a moment cutting out chips like I'm considering a raise or a flat, then I flat. (I feel like the flat reps strong hands better on this dry board). I think he has a wide cbetting range and he is a good candidate for me to take the pot away later. esp because I'm only player at table that covers him and we're nearing the bubble.

turn :6s4: pot (182k)

I look at flop 2-3 seconds then jam (~200k effective).

He tanks forever. I know he is gonna quickly call with pretty much any Q or better so the tank is good.

what do we think of this line? it's pure pressure/bubble play. If he calls with something like 77-JJ I'll have 15 outs (~30%) and if I lose I'll still have 17bb which is about average.
 
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uavissar

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Excellent spot.

General comment- I would 3bet. You are the chip leader. You have a limper from SB. You are close to the bubble. Seems like one of the best scenarios to pick up an easy pot pre flop.

As to your line-
- What are his Cbetting tendencies? This Cbet leaves him with 20bb against a big stack on a fairly dry board.
- Has he seen this type of line from you? Or any donk bets fro you?

More info would help here, but I think this a problematic play at this depth. If he was deeper- its perfect. But he's got 200 behind and the pot has close to 400 before he calls.

I don't see a good story with this line. AQ and stronger you would have 3bet pre. Sets or straights you would not shove. Seems too bluffy for me. I wouldn't be calling with A high (unless I have significant history with you) but 77-JJ I'd think a bit and call for sure.
 
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nucl

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I agree with uavissar about your play here.Under other circumstances BTN would call you with any 77-JJ hands.Donk shoving a Q there doesn't make any sense since you would like to keep his range wide and his bluffs in.From the BTN point of view you look like having a small pair and a straight draw here, all the 62 64 67 and hands like you had.But because of the bubble and putting the pressure to the shorter stack seems kind of "correct" move here.IMO always.
Prefer 3betting pre and if you get shoved just throw your hand away.
 
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Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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Excellent spot.

General comment- I would 3bet. You are the chip leader. You have a limper from SB. You are close to the bubble. Seems like one of the best scenarios to pick up an easy pot pre flop.

As to your line-
- What are his Cbetting tendencies? This Cbet leaves him with 20bb against a big stack on a fairly dry board.
- Has he seen this type of line from you? Or any donk bets fro you?

More info would help here, but I think this a problematic play at this depth. If he was deeper- its perfect. But he's got 200 behind and the pot has close to 400 before he calls.

I don't see a good story with this line. AQ and stronger you would have 3bet pre. Sets or straights you would not shove. Seems too bluffy for me. I wouldn't be calling with A high (unless I have significant history with you) but 77-JJ I'd think a bit and call for sure.

I haven't played with him a ton....but like I said I know he's good and I'm going to basically figure he plays like me. (later I learned he was a little tighter than me but I didn't know this at the time). So I'd put his normal button open range at roughly 40% [22+ A2o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+,T9o+,98o+, K7s+, Q7s+,J7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 45s+]

due to bubble and me in the BB I figure he'd drop the bottom 5% of that or so and essentially not have a 4b bluff range at all. so....if that's the case then I think you're right a preflop 3bet is the best line. pick up the dead money from SB and have an easy fold when he 4b shoves. often win on flop with a Cbet.

as for his Cbet range....again just guessing based on tendencies of "good" players but I'd expect this particular board he's Cbetting a ton....something like 80% of the time. This sizing is a question though. often for me I'll bet a smaller sizing on dry boards and a larger sizing on wet boards. this larger sizing leads me to believe he is protecting a real hand. But that real hand could be AK or other things that can't continue past the turn.

I agree this would be better if he were a little deeper but I think it's good that the board is dry because he can't think I'm just shoving on a ton of draws. No he has never seen me take a line like this (I don't really take lines like this) and he has never seen me donk (I generally don't donk).

I think this would be a borderline bad play if there weren't bubble factors. But also, it's my opinion that I get more folds on my shoves than I deserve because I'm female. This could be my own bias in evaluating my game and overestimating my fold equity; but my bluffs SO RARELY get looked up that I should probably be looking for MORE spots to bluff.

as played though, if he really is opening 35%, cbetting 80% and only calling my jam with 77+ and Qx+ then he's folding to my turn shove 60% of the time. that combined with me having 30% when called....I think it's OK. if he's also calling with any 6x then he's folding to my jam 55% of the time. still good enough I think? what do we think?
 
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AlexTheOwl

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I think a semi-bluff shove here is a slam dunk.

According to this fold equity calculator, you only need villain to fold 12% of the time for the shove to be +EV.

https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/

He's folding four to five times as often as you need him to.

You are representing a Q or maybe a set. He should expect that you called with a wide range pre-flop.

There's no way to calculate it, but I doubt that checking would have a better EV.
 
Ryan Laplante

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this is a live $165 turbo. blinds are 1k/5k/10k

We have 14 players left and 12 are paid. I am probably tournament chip leader but definitely table chip leader with about 450k (45bb)


so it folds to the button (280k 28bb) he is a young good player I don't have much experience playing with him but I've seen him around he's always got chips late in tourneys and my quick assessment is he's roughly as good as me; I can assign him similar ranges that I might have and they should be close. nobody else at the table is very good.

He raises to 25k from Button. SB flats off a stack of about 125k (he's weak tight and will just look at a flop and donk jam or check fold). I have :as4::2s4: and consider 3b but I figure this is a hand that has decent playability and I don't suspect Button is opening vs my BB super light due to stack/bubble situation. He knows I haven't been folding my BB much.

so I flat we take a flop. pot contains 82k flop :qs4::3c4::5h4:

it checks to button he Cbets 50k SB folds. I take a moment cutting out chips like I'm considering a raise or a flat, then I flat. (I feel like the flat reps strong hands better on this dry board). I think he has a wide cbetting range and he is a good candidate for me to take the pot away later. esp because I'm only player at table that covers him and we're nearing the bubble.

turn :6s4: pot (182k)

I look at flop 2-3 seconds then jam (~200k effective).

He tanks forever. I know he is gonna quickly call with pretty much any Q or better so the tank is good.

what do we think of this line? it's pure pressure/bubble play. If he calls with something like 77-JJ I'll have 15 outs (~30%) and if I lose I'll still have 17bb which is about average.
I would shove pre.

If hes competent at all he will call your jam very very tight and A2s has enough equity when called by either player. (I realllllly dislike 3b/f pre)

As played i dont mind the turn lead jam, however i dont expect him to fold to it when he has a pair of any kind.

Normally id dislike lead jamming turn, but bubble gives us some added FE.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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I would shove pre.

If hes competent at all he will call your jam very very tight and A2s has enough equity when called by either player. (I realllllly dislike 3b/f pre)

I would not shove A2s into effective stacks of 28BB and 13BB when one player raised and the other has already called a raise. I'm not saying I'm right, just that I wouldn't do it.

I understand that BTN is probably stealing with a wide range (though note that missjacki says she has been defending her blinds), SB is a weak player, hero covers both players, and there is strong bubble pressure. They'll definitely fold most of the time. But the risk / reward ratio feels wrong to me.

Is 3-bet shoving pre here a difficult decision, or almost automatic?
How big would the larger effective stack need to be to make this a bad play?
 
Ryan Laplante

Ryan Laplante

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I would not shove A2s into effective stacks of 28BB and 13BB when one player raised and the other has already called a raise. I'm not saying I'm right, just that I wouldn't do it.

I understand that BTN is probably stealing with a wide range (though note that missjacki says she has been defending her blinds), SB is a weak player, hero covers both players, and there is strong bubble pressure. They'll definitely fold most of the time. But the risk / reward ratio feels wrong to me.

Is 3-bet shoving pre here a difficult decision, or almost automatic?
How big would the larger effective stack need to be to make this a bad play?

Pretty automatic jam vs competent and loose player.

Probably around 35bb.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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Pretty automatic jam vs competent and loose player.

Probably around 35bb.

Are you taking into account how weak the field is and my general ability to make uncontested chips on the bubble? I know you tend to play a lot of bigger buy in events with tough players and deep structures. In a good structure 28bb is shortish. In this structure he’s well above average stack.

For instance I could min raise from loJack and beyond and just win the blinds most of the time. So it seems reckless to play such a huge pot preflop with A2 here. Or am I being too risk averse?
 
Ryan Laplante

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That does factor a bit, but hou are being too risk adverse here. If you had like 35bb id lean more towards a typical 3b peel.
 
liuouhgkres

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I think 3-bet jam is awful, how you are going to balance it? just 3-bet is ok, calling is fine too.

OP, I think you should consider folding on the flop. The bets size is too big to call profitably. If it was smaller, like one third of flop, then call, but at this size it is fold. On the turn, never lead if your hand range didn't improve dramatically. 6 of spades, doesn't improve your range. What you represent here? Q, sets? No, shouldn't play them like this. Maybe only 64s? Check-raise on the other hand is much better, because you can play sets and all two pairs with check-raise.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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On the turn, never lead if your hand range didn't improve dramatically. 6 of spades, doesn't improve your range. What you represent here? Q, sets? No, shouldn't play them like this. Maybe only 64s? Check-raise on the other hand is much better, because you can play sets and all two pairs with check-raise.

So far the hero has called a pre-flop raise and a c-bet.

The turn card creates a BDFD and a low straight draw.

The jam on the turn is roughly a pot sized bet. It's very credible that a queen or a set would make that bet, for value and to protect their hand from overcards, flushes, and (less likely) straights.

A turn check-raise provides almost no fold equity at this SPR, and fold equity is needed to make any bet profitable here.
 
Ryan Laplante

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I think 3-bet jam is awful, how you are going to balance it? just 3-bet is ok, calling is fine too.

OP, I think you should consider folding on the flop. The bets size is too big to call profitably. If it was smaller, like one third of flop, then call, but at this size it is fold. On the turn, never lead if your hand range didn't improve dramatically. 6 of spades, doesn't improve your range. What you represent here? Q, sets? No, shouldn't play them like this. Maybe only 64s? Check-raise on the other hand is much better, because you can play sets and all two pairs with check-raise.
You are wrong. It is very easy to balance.

Folding on the flop would be very bad.

The 6 is a good card for her pre defense range and flop calling range.
 
liuouhgkres

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@Protential, please show me your balanced call and 3-bet shove ranges with 28bb effective stack.
Folding on the flop is the best decision you have. Bet size is too big, you beat zero value bets, and you don't have ton of implied odds.
 
Ryan Laplante

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@Protential, please show me your balanced call and 3-bet shove ranges with 28bb effective stack.
Folding on the flop is the best decision you have. Bet size is too big, you beat zero value bets, and you don't have ton of implied odds.
Most of my calls would be high playability suited hands, my jams would be low playability suited, and most off suit broadways and Ax, and most PPs.

Id use low off suit Suited gappers for 3b/f, and have those protected with my 3b/c.

Call examples:45s,56s,75s+,86s+,96s+,T7s+, etc

3b jam examples:A2s-A7s, A2o-AJo, JTo, QTo+, K8o+, K2s - K7s, Q2s to Q7s, 22 to 99, etc

3b/f examples:34s, 46s, 74s, 85s, 95s, T6s, J6s, etc.

3b/c: TT+, AJs+, AQo+
 
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