$16.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: ICM: openshove KQ with 10 BB

W

woedz

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 9, 2016
Total posts
6
Chips
0
ICM question:

$16.50 Bubble Rush on Stars. 47 places paid out of 261 entries. 36th to 47th: $26,34.

51 players left, my tournament position during hand: 37 out of 51. Average: 15BB

Hero: KQo UTG+2 with 10 BB. Folds to me. 3 players behind cover me.

Openshove?

Thanks.
 
D

Dwarf

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 19, 2016
Total posts
245
Chips
0
Has anyone behind you seen you get to show down? Anyone behind you have you covered with an extra 10bb?

Is this your first open shove at this table? How often/when do you shove?

I Don't hate the open shove with KQo if you have a good read that players behind you are nits.

However it sounds like you are looking to steal blinds here, I prefer opening 3x and folding to a raise.
 
T

trent32la

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jun 12, 2013
Total posts
2,852
Awards
1
Chips
0
Just folding here 4 off ITM. 3x/folding would be awful here as the risk/reward is low and we don't get to realize our equity against hands like smaller PPs and AT-AJ. In specific situations we can min raise here and r/c shorties and r/f to larger stacks but my above explanation makes that feel wrong.
 
Gabinho12345

Gabinho12345

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 14, 2015
Total posts
1,290
Awards
24
Chips
0
I would fold on the bubble from early position and shove from late position.
 
C

chng1t

Enthusiast
Bronze Level
Joined
Sep 12, 2013
Total posts
49
Awards
1
Chips
0
Openshove KQo even on the bubble with 10bb!

If we take the same situation on the final table (ICM is a huge factor), KQo is +0.12 chipEV from UTG+2. When you play a tournament, your goal is to win it, not to min cash. Yes, sometime you win be the bubble boy, but winning few blinds or getting a double up is much more important if you plan to win the tournament.
GL!:cool:
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

long winded rambler...
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 12, 2013
Total posts
2,960
Awards
6
Chips
0
you can always open shove 10bb and KQo from any position and win chips. the question is will it win money (ICM....I know you get that cuz you posted it in your title).

This is a great spot to run through ICMizer. My gut feeling is that it is probably a fold in a vacuum, although I would probably still go for it if the players behind me were nits, or 10bb represented more than 50% of any remaining player's total stack.

if we were on the actual bubble I would fold it almost always....4 from the money is getting bubbly but you're still going to need to take down the blinds a time or 2 to make it through.

I'll run it throgh ICMizer later today and post the results back here.
 
W

woedz

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 9, 2016
Total posts
6
Chips
0
you can always open shove 10bb and KQo from any position and win chips. the question is will it win money (ICM....I know you get that cuz you posted it in your title).

This is a great spot to run through ICMizer. My gut feeling is that it is probably a fold in a vacuum, although I would probably still go for it if the players behind me were nits, or 10bb represented more than 50% of any remaining player's total stack.

if we were on the actual bubble I would fold it almost always....4 from the money is getting bubbly but you're still going to need to take down the blinds a time or 2 to make it through.

I'll run it throgh ICMizer later today and post the results back here.

Thanks man, looking forward to it.
 
W

woedz

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 9, 2016
Total posts
6
Chips
0
Just folding here 4 off ITM. 3x/folding would be awful here as the risk/reward is low and we don't get to realize our equity against hands like smaller PPs and AT-AJ. In specific situations we can min raise here and r/c shorties and r/f to larger stacks but my above explanation makes that feel wrong.

Thanks. That makes sense. Let's see what ICMizer produces.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

long winded rambler...
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 12, 2013
Total posts
2,960
Awards
6
Chips
0
I ran it through and it says you should push 99+ and AK/AQ. KQo and even KQs are both folds.

now, tons of little specific details do matter. like the exact payouts and the exact stack distributions. however, since I didn't have that I just estimated using a pokerstars 300man tourney which was the closest I could come without a ton of work, it's possible given the exact right circumstances this could be a barely profitable shove, but it looks like most of the time its a fold.

what surprised me was how close it was for a hand as strong as AQ and 99 here, they're barely a push. you only make $0.01 on average pushing AQo here and you only make $0.05 on average when you shove 99 here. WOW! $EV wise, pushing KQo is worse than pushin KTs and the same as pushing K9s. that surprised me as well.
 

Attachments

  • KQo 10bb near bubble MP1.JPG
    KQo 10bb near bubble MP1.JPG
    180.2 KB · Views: 17
W

woedz

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 9, 2016
Total posts
6
Chips
0
I ran it through and it says you should push 99+ and AK/AQ. KQo and even KQs are both folds.

now, tons of little specific details do matter. like the exact payouts and the exact stack distributions. however, since I didn't have that I just estimated using a pokerstars 300man tourney which was the closest I could come without a ton of work, it's possible given the exact right circumstances this could be a barely profitable shove, but it looks like most of the time its a fold.

what surprised me was how close it was for a hand as strong as AQ and 99 here, they're barely a push. you only make $0.01 on average pushing AQo here and you only make $0.05 on average when you shove 99 here. WOW! $EV wise, pushing KQo is worse than pushin KTs and the same as pushing K9s. that surprised me as well.

Thanks for running it. I'ma need to get my hands on that tool. Quite surprising results indeed.

261 entries btw. I'll make sure to snap a screen of the payouts and stack distribution next time.
 
xkenjix

xkenjix

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 5, 2017
Total posts
223
Awards
1
Chips
2
personally i dont care about a min cash and I want chips to try and make final table, so i think i would shove here in a small tourney. If it was the Main Event $10k buyin, id probably fold
 
Top