$1500 NLHE MTT: One from the 2019 Milly-Maker

Scourrge said:

Definitely not folding pre. If we're offsuit I think you can make a small case for folding, but not suited. As long as we don't make gigantic postflop mistakes we should be fine here getting this price.

On flop, it's not the PFR betting, but... who is MP? Is he a bluffer or not? This is a super important designation in live poker, because I would say MOST people will just never have ANY bluffs in a 6+ way pot. And we don't really beat anything in a range that doesn't have any bluffs. If he's a "serial bluffer" though I can sort of get behind a call. I just figure it's unlikely we have any kind of read like that based on your description and no additional reads.

Regarding your "well we called pre so...." comment: Honestly, we're not calling preflop to see top pair and then call bets. That's just not the value of this hand. The value of this hand when we see a massively multiway pot is either flopping bigger than this and getting value vs dominated holdings (think two pair vs top pair, or bottom trips vs top pair)... OR. We flop some sort of strong draw and can put lots of pressure on one pair type holdings while still retaining a lot of equity against people's stack off ranges.

OR. It checks through on this flop. Turn brick. We put out a small bet and either take it down or get a crying call from 2nd pair or a weak straight draw. That's basically all the ways I'm excited to see this hand play out lol.

Not this. Not someone betting and we decide to call expecting we're behind (why are we calling then btw?) and then getting into weird turn spots where we turn more - but not tons more - equity.

One last thing worth mentioning: It's SUPER relevant that this bet represents 25% of your stack and we are still 2 full streets from showdown. What's the plan on bricks? Even if we're ahead sometimes, how often do we just get free cards down to showdown after this bet? It's just going to be so difficult to navigate, and I wouldn't be shocked at all to face a jam on a lot of innocuous turn cards, in which case we are sort of in the same mentality of "well I called pre, how can I fold this spot??" Which may be slightly misguided, but is definitely a thing that happens super commonly. ("I was committed" and the like.)

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ssbn743 said:

I couldn’t agree more with what you’re saying. I got myself into trouble here by studying the **** out of the game and not taking a lot of things, like stack size, into account.

MP was a decent player, although, he had some holes – when I tell you the outcome of this hand you’ll see one of them. Nonetheless, I still know I’m beat and talked myself into a call with “I have to” approach.

This guy almost certain has a big jack, two-pair, or set combo’s – never has a bluff or any kind of draw. Really the only set combo that make sense is 66, maybe TT, but JJ is a 3-bet pre I have to think. J6 – I hope not, and JT is well within the range. So, we’re beat here, but I think better than 75% of this range is still single pair hands – we’re talking 3 combos of 66 and 6 combos of JT – everything else we do have some equity against – not great, but at least we’re not crushed.



I settled on the old stop’n’go and moved all-in on the turn. I’m beat, I know, but I picked up equity and put single pair hands in a very precarious spot. Of course, I get snapped by two-pair or better – and I realize this is a very, very high variance line.

He tanked for 3 full minutes, another player called the clock and everything – so I was happy with my read and my play. In hindsight, I wish the turn was a wetter diamond, the or would have been gin.

Anyway, he finally called KJo (one of those holes I mentioned above – flatting a +1 open KJo from 2 spots left….eecccckkkk)

Anyway, otr. Good game, although I was left with $600 chips, and even quadrupled up the next hand. Ultimately got it on UTG with A8o and got called QJo to lose.

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