$15 NLHE STT: $$15 NLHE STT: $$15 NLHE STT: $15 DoN 6/10 left BU shoves. I have QQ in BB (ICM?)

$15 NLHE STT: $$15 NLHE STT: $$15 NLHE STT: $15 DoN 6/10 left BU shoves. I have QQ in BB (ICM?)

I have a question about this ICM spot. We're on the money bubble of a $15 Double or Nothing. I have QQ in the BB and the button who has been playing somewhat tight has shoved in front of a loose SB (chip leader) and myself in the BB. We both have the button covered. I checked ICM and it said that the button should be shoving 8% of hands (66+, ATs, AJo)

Since I barely have the button covered on the bubble, ICM says I should be a complete nit and only call button's shove with AA. Every other hand including KK is a fold. Is this really true? Do I really have to nit up to the point where I'm folding to a cash?

I checked the Chip EV value and it said QQ+ to call. So ICM says AA only and chip EV says QQ+. I cover at least one of those two categories.
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Merge - $15 Double or Nothing| NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 21.57 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 3.13, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 32)
MP: 8.57 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 32)
CO: 20.59 BB (VPIP: 34.38, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 32)
BTN: 12.75 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
SB: 21.22 BB (VPIP: 40.63, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
Hero (BB): 15.29 BB

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has Qh Qs
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 12.65 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 11.65 BB


Flop : (26.41 BB, 2 players) 8s Js KcTurn : (26.41 BB, 2 players) 5h

River : (26.41 BB, 2 players) 6d

BTN shows ? ?

Being a double or nothing all you need to do to win is beat one more player and there are 2 with shorter stacks than you, one being half your stack size.

If you fold here you are likely to make the money easy enough by just folding until someone else busts.

If you call here and win you are in pretty much the same situation as folding, you can just keep folding until someone else busts.

If you call here and lose you become extremely short stacked. You will have to rely on getting a decent enough hand to shove and win within the next orbit and even then you are not guaranteed to win it. All the while our MP friend is just sitting back folding away while he watches us trying and scrape our way back up past him.

Lets say BTN is playing perfectly and shoving with 8% of hands. Against that range QQ is 64%. Not really all that great when you consider the above scenarios.

Please note I have not played/studied double or nothings at all but just going off what I know about ICM etc.

You make a good point. So I should just wait for 8 big blind guy that plays 12% of hands to run out of blinds?

playing DoNs is an exercise in situations and not necessarily your cards.

it will teach your great patience. This is a beautiful example of just how tight you need to be sometimes. yes, the ICM calculation is correct.

I'll be honest though...I probably would fold QQ and call with KK....even if that's technically wrong I think that's how I would play it.

yeah got to call a BTN raise with just 15bbs.

SnowedIn said:

yeah got to call a BTN raise with just 15bbs.

Click to expand...

It's a DoN. You gain very little 'tourney equity' vs. what you lose by calling. Calling in hopes of winning, you're significanly increasing everyone else's equity


You don't necessarily 'wait til' the other player goes out' either.
You need to maintain a stack that has FE so there still might be a bunch of spots you'll need to shove BUT you don't want to be calling it off & doing everyone else a huge favour.

(basically >> shove wide... call tight)

Poker Orifice said:

It's a DoN. You gain very little 'tourney equity' vs. what you lose by calling. Calling in hopes of winning, you're significanly increasing everyone else's equity


You don't necessarily 'wait til' the other player goes out' either.
You need to maintain a stack that has FE so there still might be a bunch of spots you'll need to shove BUT you don't want to be calling it off & doing everyone else a huge favour.

(basically >> shove wide... call tight)

Click to expand...

Agree with that but think a QQ call counts as calling tight

This thread has been opened for a while now. So I will spoil the results.

The guy shoved 99 and committed ICM suicide. He became the bubble boy QQ > 99.

I stopped playing higher stakes Double or Nothings though because I believe they're a bit "collusiony" on Carbon/Merge network. For example moments of soft play/chip dumping that looks too obvious.

Sil3ntness said:

This thread has been opened for a while now. So I will spoil the results.

The guy shoved 99 and committed ICM suicide. He became the bubble boy QQ > 99.

I stopped playing higher stakes Double or Nothings though because I believe they're a bit "collusiony" on Carbon/Merge network. For example moments of soft play/chip dumping that looks too obvious.

Click to expand...

The player on the BTN didn't 'committ ICM suicide' at all. Their play was correct. Your's wasn't.
I'm not sure what you're missing from some of the responses above? (NoBrainer's & missjacki's are both spot on)

You're right about one thing... you should probably stay away from DoN's ... although maybe not just for the reasons you've mentioned.

if you don't "collude" with other random players in DON's you should probably give them up

As for the hand i think it's a fold but a call wouldn't be horrendous according to ICM as we still have chips left over when we lose. So i would think QQ+ or JJ+ would be a call here according to ICM(AKs is always a fold here, everytime), however sometimes it's best to ignore ICM and go with your actual brain as one of the pitfalls of ICM is that it overvalues the shortstack you have left over if you call and lose here.