$125 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: My first post - 44 vs AJ for 1/3 of my chips?

risacoff14 · Sep 18, 2018

First time posting

Looking for advice:

Buy In: Live tournament $125, $5000 Guarantee
Blinds: 20 minutes 1st 9 rounds, 30 minutes
Starting Chips: 15,000 (810,000)
Players: 54

9th round…..20 players remaining. Blinds were 800-1600 with 200 ante. I had approximately 70,000 chips. I was in the BB with 44. Everyone folds around. Cutoff with approximately 22,000 goes all-in. Button and Small Blind fold. We were breaking the table and the villain was semi-short stacked and looking for anything decent to shove with so I knew she had a wide range. I called and she showed AJ off-suit. Flopped a Jack and I lost

A few hands blinds are 1000-2000 with 200 ante. I'm dealt QQ in the cutoff position. UTG+1 shoved all in for around 9,000, UTG+2 came over the top for 38,000. Folds to me…I shove all in for 48,000. Button, Small Blind, and Big Blind all fold. UTG+1 shows AJ off-suit, UTG+2 show KK and KK holds against my QQ and UTG+1’s AJ.

A few hands later I have 99 and shove with my remaining 9,000. Same villian that held KK calls and show JJ and I am out.

My question to my fellow players – should I have called the all-in with 44? I was one of the chip leaders at the time. Was it smart to risk a 1/3 of my stack in that situation? On the next round, should I have folded QQ with two all-ins? Any and all feedback is welcome as I am really trying to improve my game.

quant1986 · Sep 18, 2018

1. 44 is ahead if you believe CO shoves with GTO optimal but usually I will call tighter in live game as people don't shove that wide

2. I don't think I would fold QQ here as UTG+2 likely shove wider than KK+

There may be ICM considerations when you run deeper in the tournament but not this case

Matt Vaughan · Sep 19, 2018

quant1986 said:
1. 44 is ahead if you believe CO shoves with GTO optimal but usually I will call tighter in live game as people don't shove that wide

2. I don't think I would fold QQ here as UTG+2 likely shove wider than KK+

There may be ICM considerations when you run deeper in the tournament but not this case

Well said and I also just want to reiterate because I think it's important. 44 is probably a call online where people's shoving ranges will be closer to correct. In live games, people tend to both under-jam and under-call when short stacks are involved.

That being said, there ARE game dynamics that can arise where you get a strong sense that someone is going to be far wider than they otherwise would, and can therefore make wider call offs than normal. However you didn't give any info on gameflow to suggest this - you just sort of asserted that he'd be looking for a spot to jam (which is probably true but we shouldn't assume it'll be with super weak hands).

Cbet buddy · Mar 11, 2019

44 probably a fold in live event

Even with a wide shoving range I think 44 is a tough habd to call with, beat case senario you’re facing an under pair, more likely you’ll be facing to over cards or even a slightly better pocket pair. 55 has you in real bad shape here. Which is going to be well within the short stacks shoving range. Queens are always hard to fold probably not a terrible reshove

sedlacekj · Mar 11, 2019

As for the 44, I don't think I would call all-ins with it. Most likely the CO all-in has a made pair or broadway cards.

As for the QQ, I would call one all-in, or two if the second one wasn't much larger, but not the one of the UTG+1 size. This counts close to a raise and a re-raise. Fold here.

eetenor · Mar 11, 2019

risacoff14 said:
First time posting

Looking for advice:

Buy In: Live tournament $125, $5000 Guarantee
Blinds: 20 minutes 1st 9 rounds, 30 minutes
Starting Chips: 15,000 (810,000)
Players: 54

9th round…..20 players remaining. Blinds were 800-1600 with 200 ante. I had approximately 70,000 chips. I was in the BB with 44. Everyone folds around. Cutoff with approximately 22,000 goes all-in. Button and Small Blind fold. We were breaking the table and the villain was semi-short stacked and looking for anything decent to shove with so I knew she had a wide range. I called and she showed AJ off-suit. Flopped a Jack and I lost

A few hands blinds are 1000-2000 with 200 ante. I'm dealt QQ in the cutoff position. UTG+1 shoved all in for around 9,000, UTG+2 came over the top for 38,000. Folds to me…I shove all in for 48,000. Button, Small Blind, and Big Blind all fold. UTG+1 shows AJ off-suit, UTG+2 show KK and KK holds against my QQ and UTG+1’s AJ.

A few hands later I have 99 and shove with my remaining 9,000. Same villian that held KK calls and show JJ and I am out.

My question to my fellow players – should I have called the all-in with 44? I was one of the chip leaders at the time. Was it smart to risk a 1/3 of my stack in that situation? On the next round, should I have folded QQ with two all-ins? Any and all feedback is welcome as I am really trying to improve my game.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

It helps to build player profiles while we are playing. Try to get an idea from the hands previously played as to the style of the opponent.
Example 1 44 vs AJ: how many hands had you played with her? How did she get to 22k? In the last orbit she played did she min raise any hands 3x open any hands? Fold BB fold SB to what bet sizing? Shove any other hands? Did she stop and think about calling a raise then fold reluctantly? Can you remember the last three hands she played that you saw and how she played them? She was in cutoff and shoved vs one of the top stacks can you be sure she was going to do that wide? Were you folding a lot of hands? Could you be considered to be overly tight? How would she view you? What hands did she see you play?
You could tell she was looking to get it all in wide, was AJ a wide shove in her mind?

I hope this thought exercise helps you in your future poker battles.

tmfnsanders · Mar 11, 2019

I'm probably calling all 3. I'm a little bit on the fence with the 44 because we are dominated by a lot of their range, flipping vs a lot of their range, but only dominating 3 hands (22,33,A4). I'm fairly certain this ends up costing me big stack later on in tourneys. as I seem to feel the need to be the person busting everyone and take risks like this all the time.

5pAce_C0wb0y · Mar 11, 2019

risacoff14 said:
First time posting

Looking for advice:

Buy In: Live tournament $125, $5000 Guarantee
Blinds: 20 minutes 1st 9 rounds, 30 minutes
Starting Chips: 15,000 (810,000)
Players: 54

9th round…..20 players remaining. Blinds were 800-1600 with 200 ante. I had approximately 70,000 chips. I was in the BB with 44. Everyone folds around. Cutoff with approximately 22,000 goes all-in. Button and Small Blind fold. We were breaking the table and the villain was semi-short stacked and looking for anything decent to shove with so I knew she had a wide range. I called and she showed AJ off-suit. Flopped a Jack and I lost

A few hands blinds are 1000-2000 with 200 ante. I'm dealt QQ in the cutoff position. UTG+1 shoved all in for around 9,000, UTG+2 came over the top for 38,000. Folds to me…I shove all in for 48,000. Button, Small Blind, and Big Blind all fold. UTG+1 shows AJ off-suit, UTG+2 show KK and KK holds against my QQ and UTG+1’s AJ.

A few hands later I have 99 and shove with my remaining 9,000. Same villian that held KK calls and show JJ and I am out.

My question to my fellow players – should I have called the all-in with 44? I was one of the chip leaders at the time. Was it smart to risk a 1/3 of my stack in that situation? On the next round, should I have folded QQ with two all-ins? Any and all feedback is welcome as I am really trying to improve my game.

I would of let the 44 go. Yes there range is going to be wide but if they have a pair no doubt its higher than yours and if its 2 cards they are definitely higher than yours. I'm out at the minute but will have run it through the software later.

The queens are a more difficult decision I think. Against the first all in I'm definitely calling but once the 2nd comes over the top I'd seriously be considering the fold. Again I'll run it through the software and see what the results are.

Lorpugo · Mar 11, 2019

Qq is well played 44 big mistake. You dominate only 22 and 33 and you are dominated vs other pocket pairs and flipcoining everything else. 44 Is good shove when you are the shortstack and have some fold equity but in this spot it is a fold

5pAce_C0wb0y · Mar 11, 2019

Interestingly to what the CO shoving range should be with his stack it's a marginal call. This is due to once ante's and sb are taken into account your more than doubling your money just! I'd still of folded it though.

5pAce_C0wb0y · Mar 11, 2019

The queens are a call. You are 54.09% to win the hand against your opponents ranges. Your potentially getting about 2.5 times the chips you risk back so in the long run its +ev.

liuouhgkres · Mar 11, 2019

The only hand under question is hand with 44. Let's do some quick math. I assume you have 7 players at the table, so the pot is already 1600+800+1400+22000=25800. You need to call 21400 for the total pot of 47800. To break even you need t have 214/478=45% equity roughly.

I gave a nash equilibrium push range to CO, it's very wide, 22+, A2+, K5s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+. 76s. 44 has 49% against this range, which makes it a comfortable call. You can fold it against tight players, especially if there are other short stacks, but by default it is a call.

GiGiCat · Mar 30, 2019

risacoff14 said:
First time posting
Buy In: Live tournament $125, $5000 Guarantee
Blinds: 20 minutes 1st 9 rounds, 30 minutes
Starting Chips: 15,000 (810,000)
Players: 54

9th round…..20 players remaining. Blinds were 800-1600 with 200 ante. I had approximately 70,000 chips. I was in the BB with 44. Everyone folds around. Cutoff with approximately 22,000 goes all-in. Button and Small Blind fold. We were breaking the table and the villain was semi-short stacked and looking for anything decent to shove with so I knew she had a wide range. I called and she showed AJ off-suit. Flopped a Jack and I lost.

My question to my fellow players – should I have called the all-in with 44? I was one of the chip leaders at the time. Was it smart to risk a 1/3 of my stack in that situation? On the next round, should I have folded QQ with two all-ins? Any and all feedback is welcome as I am really trying to improve my game.

CO shoves pre short stacked! This narrows her to what I would guess to be a short stack range as follows:

44+, AJs+, KJs+, T9s, 87s, AJo+, KQo

This is ~ 11% of all possible hands!

Against this range we are a 2:1 to lose. or we win 33% of the time.
Hero's equity is actually ~38% :joyman:

But
Pot odds are 1:1

Why risk 33% of your stack when the odds, including implied, do not add up?

Have a great day, hope this helped,
GiGiCat

GiGiCat · Mar 30, 2019

risacoff14 said:
First time posting

Looking for advice:

Buy In: Live tournament $125, $5000 Guarantee
Blinds: 20 minutes 1st 9 rounds, 30 minutes
Starting Chips: 15,000 (810,000)
Players: 54

A few hands blinds are 1000-2000 with 200 ante. I'm dealt QQ in the cutoff position. UTG+1 shoved all in for around 9,000, UTG+2 came over the top for 38,000. Folds to me…I shove all in for 48,000. Button, Small Blind, and Big Blind all fold. UTG+1 shows AJ off-suit, UTG+2 show KK and KK holds against my QQ and UTG+1’s AJ.

My question to my fellow players – should I have called the all-in with 44? I was one of the chip leaders at the time. Was it smart to risk a 1/3 of my stack in that situation? On the next round, should I have folded QQ with two all-ins? Any and all feedback is welcome as I am really trying to improve my game.

QQ in CO! Cool!

Not always so?!

Pre-Flop with my default hand ranges for the other players in the CO seat Hero has a hand Equity of ~15%

With the short stack shove and broadening of his/her range due to stack size it is the same as the last example:

44+, AJs+, KJs+, T9s, 87s, AJo+, KQo

However with UTG+2, 3 betting the UTG all in short stack we can really narrow his range down:

QQ+, AKs, AQs, AKo

This is not good for the hero as we can virtually get rid of the UTG+2 from having pocket QQ's reducing his hand range even further

.

With the assumed hand ranges Hero has ~24% in Hand Equity as there are still 3 people left that have not acted.

Once they fold Hero's Equity goes up to ~35% or once again ~2:1 losing ratio.

pot odds:

52000 Pot/ 38000 to call or pot odds of ~1.4:1 odds or 42% just to call, so with pot odds alone we can not call.

What about implied odds? Can't tell as we don't know how much UTG+2 had left behind.

Have a great day, hope this helped,
GiGiCat

skeptix · Mar 30, 2019

You played both situations correctly.

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$125 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: My first post - 44 vs AJ for 1/3 of my chips?

risacoff14

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quant1986

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Matt Vaughan

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sedlacekj

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eetenor

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